Short Selling into Aug 2019

1
OK so I've started a New Thread to cover the next few months until things clearly begin to Downturn.

NOT a great deal to add. European Stocks have FLOWN today on the QE Chat from Draghi.

Tomorrow more probably from Powell at the Fed.

The ONLY question is how well will it work for the Markets in general ?

Astrologically things have simplified a bit this week already.

I'm noticing r.Jupiter 150° The North Node, while r.Saturn applies to the South Node.

r.Pluto applying to Neptune.

r.Jupiter continuing to dominate the Full Moons thru till late Sept.

Oil just shot up 4%. Gold moving too. Cyrptos too ?

Things NOT making much sense from my Astrological Viewpoint except perhaps that combination r.Jupiter and r.Saturn are making to the Nodes. And that is a longer term theme on and off thru the Summer.

And r.Pluto now free to power into Neptune does suggest Fed Debt increasing generally I THINK.

A VERY POWERFUL STABILISING +VE till mid Aug.

Neptune free to power on thru Pisces.

But really now All Work must go on trying to spot the Jumping Off Point when it comes.

If you believe as I do that The Stars run the Show then it is necessary to try to explain what has been happening these last 48 hrs.

I think the main thing is that the Outer Planets are no longer in that Holding Pattern.

And generally they are now overall more +VE. But is this going to be a temporary Jump ?

All Eyes on Powell now. And if he indicates a Rate Cut in July then we may well power on up towards 3,000.

I don't think I'll be looking for Short opportunities but instead just trying to find the better Long ETFs to surf thru till the end of July.

Cheers,

H

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkm8FJT6tm8
Last edited by WooWoo on Sat Aug 10, 2019 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

2
Here is the Debrief

1/ Into May the Markets began to fall. They fell further than I’d expected and was comfortable explaining.

Once they’d fallen that far it became reasonable from the Astrology to believe that’d continue.

2/ Looking back much of the Volatility and Pessimism was due to Trump’s antics.

3/ I then began to get nervous as Jupiter had gone retro and was squaring Neptune. This is always harmful as it is very unpredictable.

4/ Trump then kicked all his threats down the Road. And talk of QE, Infrastructure Spending and Rates Cuts began. WHY DID IT ?

5/ Yes there was some Poor Data but we’ve been having Poor Data for while now.

6/ Once the Selling had Bounced back a bit one Pro warned that we could drop a further 5% or rise 5%.

VERY HELPFUL (NOT) especially as his Free Advice always arrives at these Decision Points.

Another said don’t worry if you missed the Selling because we’ll be back to the All time Highs by the end of the year. ??

7/ Really the Lack of Disharmony amongst the Outer Planets have made predicting the last few months very hard. May and June especially.

8/ As we are talking Easing and Increased Debt, or Currency Devalutions, then that points to Neptune. Neptune just so so so hard to read.

9/ So where are we now ? The Markets have risen as Trumpy has reduced his Tariff Posturing.

Then came the Easing from the ECB, China and probably promises from the Fed tonight.

I hope you agree that this is HIGH RISK stuff. Economies especially China and Europe including Germany are in trouble.

Trump has shot his Tax Cut bolt and Tariff Threats seem to be problematic for Economies.

Astrologically once Jupiter has passed 23°03’ Sagittarius in early November then it has to be Down Hill from there.

r.Jupiter is now moving away from Trump’s Make America Great Again. Currently opposing his Uranus. Expect really Cwazy Thinking from him until that is passed.

It peaks, you guessed, on the 23rd June leading upto the time of the G20 Meeting in Japan. So I doubt we’ll get a grounded approach prior to the G20 but he might begin to "sober" up by the time he meets Xi.

10/ That aside, it is All a Complete Mess. The Fed “promising??? Easing in July. Jam tomorrow should work. As Selling the Facts will have to wait till the end of July.

Shortly after that on the 12th Aug Jupiter SDs and we then have the Last Act.

Things do seem to be being set up for trouble in the Autumn. Mainly because All the Rabbits will have been pulled out of All the Hats by then.

That's how it looks like to me anyway.

11/ As things stand I don’t see any Short Selling opportunities just now. Just a case of trying to work thru what happens between now and early November.

12/ As to tonight's Fed Meeting ? It is just a repeat to say that a promise for late July is VERY POWERFUL.

However, Powell has to be careful what he says. But of course he wouldn't hesitate to correct himself in the days after if the Markets temporarily move down.

13/ A great consideration is how much higher could the Main Markets go now thru till the Autumn ?

I think that relates to r.Jupiter's 150° dance with The Node. A +VE direction.

H

3
I'll put some effort into trying to predict the sort of peak levels the SP 500 might make in the coming months.

Of course if the Markets don't react well to Powell today then he'll be able to talk it up before the July Meeting.

That is at the very end of July. And then on the 17th-18th Sept. Then the very end of Oct.

Um ?

Fairly dangerous timings I feel as if nothing comes out of the mid Sept then late Oct might come too late to prevent a Crash.

I don't think I'll have much to add to these threads now. If I do I'll add them here.

But it does look like we are heading for that sort of "Fertiliser" drive Late Summer peak.

H

4
I was just thinking a little longer about My Debrief. See above.

Really it is Trumpy who has been rocking the Boat, and forcing the ECB and China to Ease.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... -stimulus/

While considering his 10th House Uranus at 17°56' I also see that he has r.Jupiter in trine to his Uranus at 17°27' Libra. And Chiron at around 14°30'.

I'm looking at this because r.Jupiter is the main player just now and d.Jupiter will be the main player come mid August.

r.Jupiter is activating Trumpy's Uranus and r.Jupiter in the run up to the G20.

I think that bodes well for a wide scale agreement.

I also saw again that Trumpy's Mars is around 26°30 and will be the last to receive Jupiter transit in early November.

You've got to remember that Trumpy has kicked his Tariff Threats mostly down into this Autumn's Long Grass.

Transiting Jupiter thru this Autumn will activate Trumpy's Mars and make him up for a fight.

He's already nearly "crashed" the Markets with Tariff Threats early this Spring.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... ird-world/

Will he be doing the same come this Autumn ?

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So we have had the Forward Guidance. The Markets will factor that in over the rest of the week.

The US is meeting with the Chinese and really we are where we were. That is dancing to Trump's tune.

A pretty well Impossible Situation to predict.

H

5
It is fair to say one Hell of a lot Astrologically has concluded this week so far.

1/ Last night Mars opposing r.Pluto, translating from r.Saturn, delivered the shooting down of the US drone by Iran over the Oil "Choke Point" / Straights.

So to some extents that is that for just now.

But how can it be ?

2/ Mercury and soon Mars are tracking the Asteriod of Fear. So Fear has to play a role in things now.

3/ Worth noting very carefully is that all this week's Easing/ Debt Play peak coincided with Neptune SR.

Further, Neptune was being applied to by all the Outer Planets (except Uranus).

Now it is ONLY r.Pluto doing that till early Aug.

4/ And r.Jupiter applies to The North node, and r.Saturn to the South Node.

5/ The Eclipse Season isn't too far away. If something is going to change re Iran then it'll be during the Eclipse Season.

6/ The US and China are meeting prior to the G20. r.Jupiter is passing over Trumpy's Uranus r.Jupiter trine 23rd - 27th June.

I'd say that'll make Trumpy open to Good Ideas. If China play Ball.

I did reasonably well on Oil and Gold overnight but will be closing out now.

7/ I' imagine we'll drift higher now on the Easing hopes but one word from Trumpy and we'll be scuttling for cover.

NOT HEALTHY.

I don't see any decent Opportunities on the Horizon.

8/ Worth trying to do some research on what happens if the Easing fails. And to study Trumpy's Chart to look for Triggers.

Especially his Mars/ Aug 2017 Eclipse Point/ Ascendant combo. And his intercepted Moon/ Node/ Eclipse Point 4th House.

The next one or two fullish Moon's will activate that Space again.

I'll add any further thoughts here but it is the Eclipse Season to watch for and that is pretty well Unknowable.

It is across Cancer / Capricorn so that might go for Banking and Anglo Saxon Governments.

Maybe the Iran thing will crescendo then. So that's late Jun thru till the 19th July.

8/ We should note that The Sun enters Cancer tomorrow. So that then sort of activates the Anglo Saxon theme.

Maybe things come alive re Iran. But it doesn't feel like that just now does it ?

H

6
Worth stepping back ..

1/ We had Mars oppose r.Pluto overnight so Oil and Gold rose.

So things should settle down a bit now.

But we are heading into a month that will be dominated by

2a/ Trump and China. And he'll be making threats.

2b/ The Eclipse Season.

THOSE ARE UNKNOWABLES.

3/ Finally Mercury turns retro and crosses Mars again at the beginning of the week of the 8th July.

I'd say that coupled with the Lunar Eclipse will cause things to wobble, but r.Jupiter will dominate this Full Moon even more so than this last one.

Remember those Arm Bands kids us to learn to swim ? We won't be sinking while r.Jupiter dominates the next two fullish Moons nor while d.Jupiter dances with the Outer Planets again thru till late Oct.

H

7
OK Just closed out some very healthy Gold and Oil positions - Phew.

Can't see anything on the Horizon for the Short Seller.

The Sun ingressing onto Cancer does increase the likelihood of Iranian derived Troubles and Tensions.

Trump is building up towards the G20 in Japan over next weekend, end of June.

r.Jupiter complete the 150° to the North Node late next Monday 24th June UKT. Which matters as it leave r.Saturn applying to the South Node. The Nodes are stationary/ direct then too.

But Trumpy's Twitter Account trumps all that and I think he'll be in a +VE mood. Looking for progress on his Deal with China.

And less likely to pick a fight with Iran I'd say. But the Mullahs may have a different feeling.

The Eclipses follow the week after the G20 colludes and knowing Trumpy he'll be shooting from the hip then.

But it is a weak Solar Eclipse and the Lunar Eclipse is dominated by r.Jupiter.

Nothing new then.

H

8
OK So as I try to pick myself up from this week's very bad "Put" Misfire I've run thru the Charts till August.

Set against all the Buoyancy coming from r.Jupiter I do see a bit of a Downside Risk brewing from Friday 5th July thru till around the 23rd July.

More later once I've gone thru it all again.

I've also noticed that although Trumpy will be +VEly driven by r.Jupiter crossing his Uranus r.Jupiter trine till the 25th June or so r.Saturn is sweeping in behind.

So for whatever reason we may see his Mood darken around the G20 and into the following week.

I'd expect that anyway as I don't think he wants a deal with China.

More later.

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OK Here is the More later.

I'd say I can just about squeeze A "Chance" of Counter Trend Selling during the following.

1/ 27th June till the 6th July. China related.
2/ 5th July thru to 23rd July (but tailing off due to the r.Jupiter dominated Moon). Iran related.
3/ The Sun moving into Cancer this weekend brings Iran more into play I feel. The Cancer/ Capricorn axis seems to relate to Empires. Persia and All That ?

A "Chance" is my lowest Confidence Level and is sort of in the "Having a Punt" territory. A Wee Nibble.

Today I see Gold and Oil continue to push up ? Interesant. But the Aggression Peak was last night ?

The World waits and listens for Trumpy's Twitter Feed.

Military Aggression against Iran
Trade Tariffs against China

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I am really interested to see what the Chart Guys have to say. Because re Easing we are really into the Buy the Rumour phase and then what happens when they actually Ease in the Autumn ?

What happens when they throw money at it and things don't respond ?

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Ok some final thoughts.

1/ Much was made of the Powell Put and the Trump Trade Put. Using the Buy The Rumour Sell The Fact argument we can say that the Uplift from the First has mostly been felt and about 2/3rds of the Second.

Personally I think Trumpy won't agree anything complete at the G20 and things will turn sour again.

2/ I think the upcoming Eclipse Solar is bringing more Tension and Karma than I'd thought because r.Saturn is applying to the Nodes till about the 4th July, and still close to them come the 16th July.

Eclipses tend to turn things on their Heads so we might believe that this delicate situation between the US and Iran gets that treatment. Also possible between the US and China too.

I think Trumpy's mood will turn to the -VE as next week's Talks with China progress.

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I think it is now time to turn to the Technical Analysts and try to see what sort of Levels might be achieved if the G20 Talks went well. How much higher ?

Because the SP 500 hit around 2,960. You could see us moving well into the 3,000s but I don't think that'd last for long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bdr2SbUBwRI

2,880 Support Level ?

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It took me a while to get there but this Briefing describes my point of view ..

""...given the significant upcoming events over the next few weeks, we do not feel now is an appropriate time to make major changes to our view until there is more clarity over trade wars, rates, and the macro backdrop," write UBS strategists led by Nick Nelson.

"Whilst we see some upside risk, we do not have the high bullish conviction we had at the beginning of the year when we highlighted extreme pessimism in the market and attractive valuations," they add.

Several potential developments could "dramatically" change the outlook before the end of the year, Nelson and team note.

Among the upside risks, they list a de-escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, Fed rate cuts, fiscal stimulus in Europe, companies in Europe taking advantage of cheap borrowing to re-gear their balance sheets through buybacks, capex, or M&A.

On the list of fears are a further escalation of trade wars, a no-deal Brexit, an increase in Italian budget concerns, and companies facing a margin squeeze due to higher wages."

H

9
So personally I can't afford to miss out on Actions like the recent Sharp Rally.

And if you are serious about anything then you look back over mistakes or missed opportunities and try to understand what happened.

Three weeks or so ago there was a serious Downside Risk, and still is, but that was covered by the Central Banks and Chinese Government initiatives.

I took that talk to signal even further falls in the Markets, because at some stage the Easing won't work. But that'll be this Autumn when the Confidence begins to leak out completely.

The signals were that Gold and Bitcoin began to move up. As talk of Recessions made people foresee the Euro, Chinese Rinimbi and the US Dollar weakening. Or being weakened.

Remember that some now believe that Bitcoin is the "New" Gold. A place to park your money when the FIAT Currencies move towards Worthless.

As both Gold and Bitcoin have now rallied considerably then it tells us what people really think. And I agree.

THE END IS NIGH. Or NEARLY NIGH.

As I monitor the Pros Freebies and other Financial News I did hear that Bitcoin had moved up sharply and that Gold was predicted to do so.

But I've been caught out before and I had decided to relegate my interest in those two Sectors to a limited interest ONLY.

Oooooooooooops. Umph. A Bad Mistake there.

So I'll look back to when those two began to move and try to pin in the relevant Astrology.

I believe everything can be explained by The Stars. Even if I've had to work a bit harder on Trump's Chart. And then the Eclipses linked to it.

The Main Stock Markets are really just a reflection of the value or valueless of the underlying Currencies.

Hence why the UK Markets rallied after the 2016 Vote. Basically people were saying that the Sterling was heading towards worthless.

The Stocks rose and at some stage those Speculators would cash in their UK Stocks and move the money into some other Assets.

A nice return. Same for those that know what Easing means.

Umph ! Learn the Hard Way.

I'll dig around as there will be more talk of Easing and therefore more potential Gold and Bitcoin moves.

H

10
Right a very quick look at the Charts of Bitcoin and Gold show that Bitcoin began to recover in early April.

Uranus had moved fully into Taurus in the mid part of March so that fits happily together, especially as Uranus in Taurus points to "New" and "Radical" and probably "Electronic" ways of Wealth Storage.

Gold is harder to understand at first look. Gold actually was bouncing lower till late May.

So very slow on the uptick related to talk of Easing. In fact possibly loosing out to Bitcoin.

I'll look further later and post my opinions on by adding to the post.

It might be worth trying to weave in Oil as Gold I feel is driven by the weakening of the Main FIAT Currencies but also by fear of War.

Oil too tends to react to the latter fear too I feel.

Bitcoin more to do with loss of faith in the FIATs.

Complicate stuff hence when trying to under pin it "All" with Astro helps mucho.

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So I've thought back over the Sell Off and then the QE/ Infrastructure Spending/ Rate Cuts Rumours Rally.

I still can't really see anything clearly that turned that Sell Off into a Rally. I can't see what triggered the Central Banks and China to act.

Probably the ONLY thing relevant would have been Venus entering Taurus and finding Uranus blocking her way to Peace and Harmony.

That sort of thing might act as a Trigger for those who like to feel Secure.

Certainly the World was turned on its Head by the actions of the ECB and China.

r.Jupiter was forming a 135° to both Venus then Uranus so that would add the Largess Factor.

Certainly it'd magnify and lubricate everything going on in Taurus.

But I don't think there is any way any Astrologer could have predicted that as a Trigger.

And that all happened in the second half of May especially the week of the 20th May.

Just shows you how every Planet and Point can have its day. In this case Venus being shaken up by Uranus then falling into the hands of r.Jupiter.

Because I certainly feel the ECB and Chinese reactions were Over the Top.

Validated by the very sharp rise in the Markets.

Frothy.

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And while I am at it the week ahead. Trumpy should be in a good mood and full of largess.

I think that'll change quickly as the 27th June dawns.

It is a tough Call but he'll be less happy thru till the 7th July.

What does that mean ?

He agrees to a deal that he doesn't like with China and settles similarly with Iran ?

I doubt it.

But maybe Yes !

Anyway it'll be a sobering few days for Donald from the 27th June to the 7th July and will be reflected in the Markets in some way.

I think to some extent whatever way the Markets are playing out till late on the 26th June won't be how they play out till late on the 6th July.

And remember we are entering the Eclipse Season. And the Eclipses are across the Cancer / Capricorn axis which seems to relate to the Anglo Saxon World and perhaps Majesterial Emprires like Iran and China as well.

But the latter is stretching the Hypothesis a bit.

H

11
Getting reasonably Exciting just now but pretty well Unknowable.

Worth following these Chart Guys to get a purely Quantitative View. I'm waiting for the end of week Tube.

Knowledgeable Bloke but I think Monday's 24th June will be the most telling. All Eyes now on Trumpy and his trip to Japan late this week ahead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVnXJNQTT9A

Here are the "facts" covering the period thru till the 25th July

1/ Trump has a swing on Mood from the Jolly +VE to a more Sober Mind. This kicks in around Dawn UKT on Thursday 27th June and lasts till the US Close on the 6th July.

Till then he is full of "Good Ideas." And lubricating to see them implemented.

It suggests he'll be stuck between A Rock and A Hard Place.

Don't know what it means re China.

a/ He has to Settle for something he doesn't want ?
b/ Hangs Tough and sees the Markets begin to tank again ?

I'd imagine the latter but he saw the Markets tank in thru May from this Threats. I might be forced to think twice.

2/ From around the 30th June we hit the Solar Eclipse. This happens to fall across Trumpy's 11th Mercury and the Lunar Eclipse on his 11th House Saturn.

So it points to Trumpy being pulled into the Eclipse Season.

3/ I see that the NYSE Chart's Uranus gets a transit from r.Jupiter as does the NASDAQs Uranus.

It is a strange world. Cheap money is looking for a Home. The Markets look confident.

BUT ECLIPSES CAN THROW EVERYTHING OFF FOR A FEW WEEKS.

4/ The week of the 8th July arrives with Mercury retro. Or just doing so.

That does point to Turbulence. Mars continues to apply to r.Mercury, and Uranus is square too that combo.

You'd feel for sure that Monday the 8th July will be very volatile. I'd be looking at picking up Speculative positions late on Friday 5th July to cover that.

It'd probably be on the Monday ONLY. A bit of a Down Turn moment.

5/ The week of the 15th July has a PASSIONATE Lunar Eclipse, the Sun opposing r.Pluto just, and Venus crossing The Node.

6/ The week of the 22nd July sees r.Mercury having combusted over the weekend but approaching a conjunction with Venus Wednesday into Thursday that week.

No great shakes there except 7/ might cause a dump on the Friday 19th July and r.Mercury's combust carry it thru to the Monday 22nd (just). Worth a Wee Nibble on the ViX for me.

The weekend gets in the way though. And that matters.

7/ For much of July Mars is tracking the Asteriod of Fear thru Leo. Mercury too gets close early in the month and then Mars takes over in the week of the 8th July and tracks that Fear on and on and on.

The exact conjunction is early on Friday the 19th July therefore having added more Tension to the earlier Full Moon.

8/ Don't forget r.Jupiter will add Optimism to the fullish Moon phase. You'd feel that things will turn Wild from about the Thursday 12th July.

A REAL OLD COCKTAIL OF ENERGIES with r.Saturn squeezing The South Node.

I think many of these Protests will come to a Head with this South Node Lunar Eclipse Full Moon. But that won't be pretty as the Energy forces itself thru r.Saturn and r.Pluto too.

There is a lot going on but I doubt we'll see any prolonged Sell Off. You'd feel that Gold might benefit from Mars/ Aggression linked with The Asteriod of Fear.

Mars in Leo too. Miners ?

H

PS This Boy's got some interesting Resistance Levels for Bitcoin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kSgKCOk12k

12
OK Last thoughts on the (China and Others) Trade Tariffs threats to the Markets. This piece sort of says it

"Data showing the two economies weakening, U.S. businesses lobbying against trade war escalations and a desire by Trump to claim a victory in the talks would also suggest another ceasefire may be in both countries' interests."

This'd fit with a downturn in Trump's Mood due this Thursday 27th thru to the 7th July, and r.Jupiter activating the NYSE's and NASDAQ's Uranus-es +VEly.

He'll have to suck up something he really doesn't want to but is sort of forced to.

And it fits with my Hypothesis that we'll have a miserable Autumn as Trump will have to deliver something on Tariffs to keep his Base motivated.

Basically r.Jupiter has left him a bit High and Dry, or will do so by the end this week.

Remember Jupiter in Sagittarius is the ONLY Buoyancy Aide left floating now.

Ny TAK !

H