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Sepharial - Handicap Races
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
Posts: 533
Location: UK

Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:01 pm    Post subject: Sepharial - Handicap Races Reply with quote

Over the summer, I have been experimenting with the Sepharial method of predicting handicaps using the weights carried.

The method requires us to select the significator (Sun, Moon or PoF) as the one with the closest 30 degree aspect to the MC. My experience is that 45 degree aspects should also be considered.

I have also found that a very close conjunction of the Moon or the PoF with the Ascendant or Descendant is an indication to use that as the significator.

Once we have the significator, we then look at its distance from the closest angle. I have found that much better results are obtained if we take account of the size of the quadrant in which the significator is located, and use this to normalise the distance as if it was in a 90 degree quadrant. So, suppose the MC is 120 degrees from the Descendant, and the significator is 30 degrees from the MC in the 9th. I would calculate the distance as (30/120)*90 = 22.5 degrees. I then use this distance as the measure in the usual way.

The final problem is that we get two different weights using the measure, one a heavy weight, and the other a light weight. Although I am still not sure how to decide between them, or even if we can decide, I have had good results by choosing the horse with a weight closest to one of these weights. So if we have indicated weights of 9-12 and 9-0, then if the closest weight carried to 9-12 is 9-11, and the closest carried weight to 9-0 is 9-2, then I would go for 9-11.

This is still very much 'work in progress', but hope it might be useful.
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Jupiterhead



Joined: 22 Jul 2013
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Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting post, GB - thanks!

If you find some time, would it be possible for you to show a worked example with a chart pasted into the thread?
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gs53



Joined: 23 Jul 2013
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Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2015 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am interested in that too...
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ModWasp



Joined: 21 Mar 2014
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Location: England

Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2015 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If you find some time, would it be possible for you to show a worked example with a chart pasted into the thread?


Or possibly for the DUBAI DUTY FREE HANDICAP 14:50 Newbury this Saturday?

Could do with a winner!

Cool
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
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Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

These are my calculations for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap 14:50 Newbury tomorrow.

MC = 26LIB
Using Sepharial's method this sets the all the angles and the cusps.

Sun = 26VIR
Moon = 05SAG
PoF = 05ARI (using Sepharial's method of setting the ASC from the MC)

The Sun, directly on a house cusp, is the Significator and its Measure is 30 and its Converse 60.

The Scale is 21 lbs between top and bottom weights including any extra or allowances.

The Primary Proportion (half the Scale times the Measure and divided by 90) is 3.5 lbs.
The Converse Proportion is 7 lbs.

The Moon and PoF are not acting in concert to reverse the Significator's terms, so
taking the Primary Proportion from the top (carried) weight of 9-5 we have 9-1.5.
Top Tug and What About Carlo are carrying 9-2; but not Noble Gift due a 7lb allowance.
Mange All is carrying 9-1.

Adding the Converse Proportion to the bottom weight of 7-12 we have 8-5.
Laurence is carrying 8-4 including an extra 5 lb penalty.
But as this is further away than the others from its target, I exclude it.

That leaves Top Tug, What About Carlo and Mange All as the indicated horses.

GB's method departs from Sepharial's and especially in terms of the angles and the PoF calculation.
In this case the true ASC of 23SAG is some 33 degrees from Sepharial's MC derived ASC.
Even so I expect GB, in this instance, to arrive at the same Significator.
But as the Sun's quadrant from the true Angles is 27 degrees above 90, GB's Primary Proportion will be 30 * 11.5 (if using carried weights and not card weights) / 117 = 2.95 or 3 lbs.
11.5 - 5 = 8.5 as the Converse Proportion.

So GB, assuming he is using carried weights and not listed weights, should arrive at the same horses, with the exception of Mange All, and again Laurence is further from the mark than the others.

If you want to use listed weights, which include any extra penalties but exclude any jockey allowances, the scale is 24 lbs giving Sepharial Proportions of 4 and 8 lbs and GB Proportions of 3 and 9 lbs.
These provide Faithfull Creek and Master of Finance both 2 lbs from target and Burano bang on target for Sepharial's method.
Using GB's method and listed weights adds Marshgate Lane to to the top targets, but now all 3 lbs away, with Burano as the lightweight horse 1 lb off target.

I think I have done GB's math the way he does it, but I am sure he will post if he has anything different.

In this case, it seems to me that neither the difference in calculating the PoF nor including 45 degree aspects nor considering angular conjunctions has any bearing on the matter.

If Mange All wins I claim it as one up for Sepharial's method.
If Marshgate Lane wins I salute GB's variant method.

As for the other horses mentioned here, then unless GB says anything different, both approaches would have found them.

Skyrack
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have been very busy with other things, but hope to get back to this on Friday evening. I agree that the Sun is the significator.

More later.
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ModWasp



Joined: 21 Mar 2014
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Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How about the Ayr Gold Cup - 15:45 Ayr, Scotland?

Quote:
That leaves Top Tug, What About Carlo and Mange All as the indicated horses.


Are you suggesting a tricast?
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with skyrack that the significator, the Sun, is 30 from the nearest angle. The quadrant it is in runs from 22 Gem to 26 Lib, which is 124.
I now calculate the distance of the Sun as if it was in an idealised 90 degree quadrant = 30 * 90 / 124 = 21.8 In what follows I use 21.8 (call it 22) as the distance rather than 30. This will be the major difference between mine and skyrack's calculations.

I have the scale at 19 pounds, not 21. The top carried weight is 9-5, being Marshgate Lane at 9-10 less a 5 pound jockey allowance. However the bottom weight horse is Sarsted at 8-0. Note this is handicapped at 7-12, but there is a minimum weight in this race of 8-0, so it is long handicapped.

As a result of the above (using the same method as skyrack) I get predicted weights for the winner of 9-0.4 and 8-4.9 which round to 9-0 and 8-5 which gives Homage at 9-0 and Laurence at 8-4, the closest to 8-5.

Finally, if I had to chose between these two I would go for Homage as the match to the predicted weight is closer than the match for Laurence. Although I note that Homage is at longer odds.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
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Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for showing some of your calculation and which showed the true quadrant size and the correct Scale.
It was Pacify with an allotted weight of 8-3 and a jockey allowance of 5 lbs that threw me.
Assuming that only 3 lbs of the allowance can be used to bring it down to minimum weight then the Scale is indeed 19.

Re-working Sepharial's method: the Proportions are 9.5 * 30 / 90 = 3.166 or 3 lbs and 9.5 - 3 = 6 lbs.

3 lbs from 9-5 is 9-2 : Top Tug and What About Carlo are carrying 9-2; but not Noble Gift due a 7lb allowance.

8-0 + 6 lbs = 8-6 : Laurence is on 8-4 but Burano on 8-8 is due a 5 lbs allowance.

So, using carried weights, Sepharial's indicated horses, which are the nearest to their target, are Top Tug and What About Carlo.

I cannot work out how GB arrives at Proportions of 4.6 and 4.9.

Half the Scale * Measure / Quadrant size gives me 2.3 or 1.685 depending on whether the measure is taken as is or first adjusted for quadrant size.
In both cases they give a Direct Proportion of 2 lbs and a Converse of 7.5.

What exactly is your math here, GB?

Sepharial suggested not using forecast bets when multiple horses were indicated but dutching them or moving on where the odds were too small.
On that basis I select a dutch of Top Tug and What About Carlo.
A dutch at prices of 7/1 and 10/1 gives decimal odds of 4.63.
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skyrack



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Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Gold Cup 15:45 Ayr.

The Moon is the Significator and its Measure is 29.

The Scale is 9-10 less 8-13 = 11 lbs.

Proportions = 2 and 3.5.

Rene Mathis is on target at 9-8 and at the lowerweight Ninjago, Buckstay, Red Pike and Algar Lad are all half a pound off target.
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is another tweak to the Sepharial method that I did not mention. The problem with Sepharial, not just in his racing method but also with a number of his writings for ‘non-astrologers’, is that he tends to simplify. For example, in his 1907 pamphlet “Perpetual British weather indicator” he uses the lunation times in two-hour intervals since noon. Clearly, he is using a house position based on MC houses – as he does in his racing work. Non-astrologers can use this simplified method, whereas actual houses would need proper calculation.

He also seems to make slight errors in his calculation methods, and I think this has happened in his handicap method, and I have experimented with a correction to his method. This is what I used in my analysis of Saturday’s race.

In the version of Sepharial’s method we believe to be the latest, and most developed one, he uses the distance of the significator (in our case the Sun) from the nearest angle. If we assume, as he seem to, that the angles are at 90 degrees from each other, then the maximum distance the significator can be from an angle is 45 degrees. Because his method allocates the weights over a 90-degree quadrant, only half the weights can be signified in practice, with a gap in the middle. (Try the standard calculation for distances of 0, 15, 30 and 45 degrees)

My variant allocated the half scale of weights over the possible distances, that is over 45 degrees, which is what I think he meant. I calculate two values as D = (Scale / 2) * Angle Distance / 45, and C = (Scale / 2) – D. I then get the indicated weights as Top Weight – D, and Bottom Weight + C.

Finally, with a few minutes to go before the race, I should emphasise that all this is experimental. It is certainly not right all the time, but neither is the original method.
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GB



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Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well done skyrack: What About Carlo carrying 9-2
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Jupiterhead



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Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

awesome stuff Laughing
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skyrack



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Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2015 1:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In reply to GB's comments on Sepharial's method.

I think he is quite clearly speaking to an audience of astrologers.
If Sepharial used sun signs as the basis of his method he could address the public.
But most non-astrologers would be hard put to find the MC or even know what it meant.

You distinguish between simple and proper means of arriving at the houses.
I think this is a false distinction, a more complicated method of calculating houses does not make it more "proper".

Sepharial stops where Astrology starts - at the MC.
And in the circumstances this could well be the correct thing to do.

Frawley talked about the food chain of Astrology and the appropriateness of tools and techniques as you move up the food chain.
Here, right at the bottom of the food chain, Sepharial could well be right to go no further then the MC.

Any weight on the Scale can be indicated.

Sepharial's formula for finding the Direct Proportion is
DP = half the scale * Measure / 90
And the Converse Proportion is half the scale - DP.

The Measure ranges from 0 to a (theoretical) 45.

At a Measure of 0 the Proportions of the Scale are 0 and 50%, normally from the top and bottom, but they may be reversed.
At Measure of 45 the Proportions of the Scale are 25% and 25%.

For the measure to be 45 the Significator must be mid-house and as the Significator is that which is closest to a house cusp this is almost nigh impossible.
Once a prospective Significator moves beyond 7.5 degrees from the cusp, it is likely that another will be the significator.
So 37.5 or 38 rounded may be a more likely practical maximum measure giving Proportions of the Scale of 21% and 29%.

What you identify as a "bug" in Sepharial's method, that not all weights are equally likely to be indicated, may be more of a "feature".
Either by accident or by design, as above so below. Sepharial's astrology reflects the real world where top weights tend to win.

Using your half-quadrant divisor, will tend to find midweight targets, and is likely to prove less successful in finding winners.

Frawley, when discussing, football predictions, bemoaned the fact that he was seldom asked the question which would allow him to move up the food chain and use horary techniques.

For the two races asked about Sepharial did well to find an 11/1 winner and a placed 5/1 in one race and a non-advised placed 33/1 in the other.
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2015 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

skyrack wrote:
Sepharial's formula for finding the Direct Proportion is
DP = half the scale * Measure / 90
And the Converse Proportion is half the scale - DP.

The Measure ranges from 0 to a (theoretical) 45.

Suppose the weights run from 9-0 to 10-0, so the scale is 14 and half the scale is 7.
If the measure is 0 we have DP = 7 * 0 / 90 = 0 and converse = 7 – 0 = 7
If the measure is 30 we have DP = 7 * 30 / 90 = 7 / 3 = 2.33 and converse = 7 – 2.33 = 4.66
If the measure is 45 (the maximum it can be) we have DP = 7 * 45 / 90 = 3.5 and converse = 3.5

The indicated weights would be:
Measure 0 gives 10-0 and 9-7
Measure 30 gives 9-11.66 and 9-4.66
Measure 45 gives 9-10.5 and 9-3.5

It seems to me that the only weights indicated are 9-10.5 up to 10-00, and 9-3.5 up to 9-7
The only cases where other weights (such as the bottom weight 9-0) could be indicated are if DP and converse are switched. This may be what Sepharial intended, but it seems unlikely as the switching indication is quite rare.
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