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Experimenting with horse races
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ModWasp



Joined: 21 Mar 2014
Posts: 725
Location: England

Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2015 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Singles are each way singles are the most profitable bet over time - i personally don't back anything each way unless the odds are greater than 5/1. There are some multiple bets that are worth considering - here's a few bets that are worth taking a look at.

Combination Tricast - 3 selections in the same race to finish in any order - 6 bets @ 1 costs 6. Although not a 'multiple bet', it's a good one if you can't pick between 3 horses in the race.

Patent - 7 bets - 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble )all in different races). 1 patent = 7

Tote place pot - select 1 or more form each race at a meeting to finish in the places = the dividends can be very high with long priced horses finishing the in places.

Lucky Fifteen - 4 selections 15 bets (each way 30 bets). 4 singles, 6doubles, 4 trebles, 1 acca. 1 lucky fifteen = 15 (30 e/w)


Goliath - 8 selections, 247 bets (494 each way bets) - 28 doubles, 56 trebles, 70 four folds,56 five folds, 28 six folds, 8 seven folds, 1 Acca - 1 = 247 (10p Goliath - 24.70)
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
Posts: 534
Location: UK

Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2015 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last week Deb experimented with looking at the race transits to the natal chart of each horse. I think she looked only at races where there were strong patterns in the race chart and where a horse was strongly highlighted by the transits.

If anyone wishes to try this on Saturday, the main meetings are at Kempton Park and at Doncaster.

I would suggest only looking at races with less than about 10 runners otherwise it can become a long job Smile

Last week, Saturnhead made a very sensible point, which I agree with, about avoiding outsiders:
Generally, I'd concentrate on the first 4 horses in the market. This is where most of the winners come from - odds range from 2/1 up to 6/1.

However today (Friday) there was a winner at 100/1 in the 5:45 at Wolverhampton. Perhaps the indicators were strong enough to overcome even those odds. The natal close Jupiter-Uranus conjunction straddled the race Desc, and the race Venus closely squared the natal Sun (conjunct natal Moon if the 3am time is correct). Sometimes, outsiders are worth a (e/w) bet!
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ModWasp



Joined: 21 Mar 2014
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Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2015 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
If anyone wishes to try this on Saturday, the main meetings are at Kempton Park and at Doncaster.


Who do you fancy, GB?
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Jupiterhead



Joined: 22 Jul 2013
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Posted: Sat Mar 28, 2015 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Using my method here are the planets lighting up the charts:-

Doncaster

13:25 - Sun
14:00 - Sun
14:35 - Sun
15:10 - Saturn
15:45 - Venus
16:20 - Sun & Mars (Sun is stronger)
16:50 - Venus
17:25 - Saturn

Kempton

13:45 - Mars & Saturn (Saturn is only a touch stronger)
14:15 - Sun
14:50 - Moon, Mars & Saturn (Saturn is strongest)
15:25 - Mars & Saturn (Saturn is strongest)
16:00 - Mercury
16:35 - Mars, Venus & Saturn (Venus is strongest)
17:10 - Sun, Venus & Saturn (Venus is strongest)
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2015 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On Saturday I was too busy with other things to follow-up on the racing. Instead, I looked at all today's (Sunday's) races at Ascot and two races at Doncaster. These were the races with less than 10 runners - just to keep the work load within bounds.

I only made forecasts and placed bets if there was a clear link between the horse's birth chart and the race chart. If there was nothing obvious I ignored that race. Note, I did not use the indications in the race chart of the horse's name or the colours. In some races where I lost, the race chart did indicate the name of the horse, but in some cases where I won I could not see the name of the winner in the chart. The point was to explore how the natal chart performed on its own - too many explanatory factors would only confuse things at this stage.

Over the day I bet 19 and had a total return of 41, so I doubled my money. I lost more often than I won, but the winners were at 8/1, 14/1 (backed each way) and a favourite at 2/1 (with a Rule 4 deduction).

The most interesting result was in the 3.55 at Doncaster (where I lost Smile), the horses that came first and second both had the same birthdate, so there may be something in this use of the birth chart, even though we don't have an exact birth time.

I also noticed that if one of the race angles was conjunct an important natal planet it was very powerful, but aspects from the angles to natal planets are much weaker, particularly weak are the trine and sextile.

Finally, Sun conjunct Sun (the race on or close to the birthday) is also a powerful indicator of success.

I need to do more analysis on using the birth chart, but it seems worth following-up.
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Deb
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Posted: Sun Mar 29, 2015 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry - I wasn't able to look at any of these races, and next weekend I go away until mid April. Fully intend to come back to this thread in a few weeks and be able to contribute more. Will look forward to chatting up with any new posts that get published in the meantime.
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ModWasp



Joined: 21 Mar 2014
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 6:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hope everyone backed Hail The Hero at 11/4 in the 2:15 at Doncaster yesterday.

5th cusp inconjunct Mars 10 applying to conjoin the MC.
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john



Joined: 22 Dec 2006
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Location: Lancashire, England

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mars/MC inconjunct 5th cusp occurs in two races today:

14.20 Warwick and 14.30 Chepstow
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ModWasp



Joined: 21 Mar 2014
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Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mars/MC inconjunct 5th cusp occurs in two races today:

14.20 Warwick and 14.30 Chepstow


Nice one John.

14:20 Warwick - 1st Rathealy - 12/1 Rathe adjective - growing, blooming, or ripening early in the year or season. Spell checker want's to correct the word to 'Wrathfully'.
2nd Saffron Prince - 14/1

14.30 Chepstow - 1st The Eaglehaslanded- 4/5 red-hot favourite in a very fiery chart - antiscia of Mars conjunct Regulus and Mars angular, the IC suggesting something just about to land in the water from the air - exactly the sort of thing a Sea Eagle would do, and besides, Mars-type birds normally win anyway.

The Warrior won the 14:40 at Curragh yesterday 11/4.
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ModWasp



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Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Southwell 16:00

Caged Lightning 4/1.

5th cusp trines 12th Leo Moon, Lady of the 12th and Jupiter in 12th, applying to Mars and etc.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
Posts: 187
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Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have looked at tomorrow's Scottish Grand National 3:45 AYR.

From the viewpoint of Sepharial's Eclipse method this is an interesting race as it highlights some ambiguities and uncertainties in my understanding of the method.
I hope tomorrow's outcome will resolve these.

However for now the indicated horses are two of these five:
SAM WINNER
ROYAL PLAYER
LIE FORRIT
WIESENTRAUM
BENBENS

Looking at Addey's method I am not sure if Mercury in Taurus is the Significator as it is already separating from the 5th.
But with the 12th cusp in Leo
WAYWARD PRINCE
ROYAL PLAYER seem to fit the bill.

As a dark horse suggestion, Saturn Retrograde in Sagittarius is in exact (to 4 minutes) sextile to the Part of Horsemanship at Aquarius 03:53.
CAPE TRIBULATION
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Location: UK

Posted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

skyrack wrote:
From the viewpoint of Sepharial's Eclipse method this is an interesting race as it highlights some ambiguities and uncertainties in my understanding of the method.

Like you, I have some uncertainty about exactly how the method works - primarily the Ascendant v First Cusp question and so the position of the Point of Fortune.

My understanding gives me two possibilities: Lie Forrit and Sam Winner.

Looking at the race chart in general, the striking thing is the almost New Moon, just two and a half degrees from exact, and highlighted by the sesquiquadrate from the Ascendant. The other striking factor is Saturn a degree from the IC (in the third).

I shall spend some more time thinking about this Smile
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
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Posted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In a detailed example Sepharial gave providing date, time , location and the position of the Sun, Moon and Part of Fortune, it is quite clear he did not use the ASC in the calculation.
The cusp of the 1st, replacing the ASC, gives the exact position as stated by Sepharial, although he only gave figures to the nearest degree.

However I came across this quote in my notes:
Quote:
Sepharial next tackles directions under Poles, which were a favorite of R.C. Smith, the first of several men known as "Raphael".
Then, the resolution of problems unique to Primaries:
    The proper method to calculate the Part of Fortune (Oblique Ascension/ Descension, rather than simple zodiacal longitudes),
    various unique challenges with primary directions and the moon,
    and the true way to calculate directions to house cusps,
    along with some novel shortcuts.


It may well be that this calculation was the one used, and which just happens to match an approach using the cusp of the 1st in the particular example I studied.

Another uncertainty is what set of weights to use.
Weights, for handicaps, are allotted according to the horse's handicap mark, and they then may receive an allowance(according to age or sex).
Penalties may also be applied in terms of extra weight to carry, for example, for winning a race after the entry date.

The published weights for the race day, are the allotted weights less any allowance and plus any penalty.
The weight actually carried may be different: jockey allowances are not incorporated into the published weights, as riders may and do change at the last minute.

In today's race the minimum allotted weight is 10st but one of those allotted 10st is booked with a jockey receiving a 7lb allowance.
So the published scale of weights is 26 and the carried scale, barring any jockey changes, is 33.

This makes a difference in arriving at the Proportions to use.
It also makes a difference when matching horses with indicated weights.

I am inclined to use carried weights rather than published weights.
But that is the primary uncertainty that I have.

Another uncertainty is when to "flip" the Proportions which should be done when the two non-significators are a similar distance to the same Angle.
The same degree? Two degrees? Or?

In today's race the two non-significators are the same Measure from the same Angle, and I now take that to mean the Proportions for this race should be flipped.

Using published weights, this means taking 13lbs from the top and adding 0 to the bottom.
LIE FORRIT and the 9 bottom weight horses are indicated and Lie Forrit is not the closest match.

Using carried weights, we take 17lbs from the top and add 0 to the bottom.
ROYAL PLAYER and BENBENS are indicated.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
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Posted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 5:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure how I managed to take 17 from the top to arrive at ROYAL PLAYER when I should have found WIESENTRAUM (but not Al Co).

Maybe someone was trying to tell me something...
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
Posts: 534
Location: UK

Posted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have found Sepharial's Eclipse Key online:

www.scribd.com/doc/33339801/Sepharial-1920-Collection-of-Keys-10-p#scribd

It is clear that he uses equal houses from the MC. His PoF calculation does seem to use the first house (even though he describes it as the Ascendant.

PoF = (MC + 90) + Moon - Sun
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