Football - February 2014

1
Oh dear! I was only just about getting to enjoy January and here we are in February already! :shock:

Lots of games going on today, February 1st. The 12.15 GMT in the Championship I am staying off, but we can always look at the chart:

QPR - Burnley, 12.15 GMT
Odds: 2,20 3,30 3,30
Asc 18GE26 MC 12AQ34 Moon 5PI19 POF 11CN11
Day Saturn, Hour Mercury - radical

With the Sun culminating in the South the planetary hour is actually on the change, and while the angular luminary argues the favourite, who could deny Burnley the detrimented Sun. Jupiter, L7, is close Fortuna - either the favourites or the guest, but the orb could have been tighter. It looks as if both teams have been gathering points in combat with teams lower down in the division, so todays game will be difficult and important for both. There are so many draws in the championship. I rather like QPR as a team, but I'm leaving this one alone.

In the Premier League;

Newcastle - Sunderland, 12.45 GMT

Odds: 2,00 3,40 4,15
Asc 29GE34 MC 18AQ52 Moon 5PI38 POF 22CN36
Day Saturn, Hour Moon - in sign with Mercury

This game is not strictly a one-off since WestHam and Swansea are playing at the same time, although in a different part of the country. In the above chart I am most comfortable with the Moon, LHr, being in the same sign as Mercury, L1, and Saturn, L10, is trine POF - so I think that the home team favourites should get it.
http://www.astronor.com

2
QPR - Burnley 3-3!!
What an exciting game! 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 and 3-3 !

Newcastle - Sunderland 0-3 :(
Maybe a slightly late kick-off changed the sign on the ascendant?
I do feel it is a risk with football games when the asc is in the final minutes of a sign, because the kick-off is not always punctual...
http://www.astronor.com

3
Two games in the premier league with individual starting times on Saturday;

Liverpool - Arsenal, 12.45 GMT
Odds: 2,25 3,55, 3,25
Asc 2CN17 MC 24AQ31 Moon 9GE08 POF 21LI45
Day Saturn, Hour Moon - radical by sign

The chart is radical and the Moon rules the ascendant, but quite frankly it's hard to see anything in this chart. The Moon, L1+LHr, is mutable and cadent. Saturn, L7, is cadent too. Mercury in the 10th is trine the ascendant, sextile the descendant, but retrograde and detriment. Radicality protects the favourite (?), but here I would have to go for a draw.

Swansea - Cardiff, 17.30 GMT
Odds: 1,90 3,45 4,55
Asc 6VI10 MC 24TA03 Moon 11GE32 POF 27SG49
Day Saturn, Hour Moon - radical by triplicity

Here I would really like to see Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's team take points, but is it in the chart? Mercury, L1, is retorgrade, detriment and cadent. Jupiter, L7, is in a better state, in a semi-sextile to the Moon, LHr, who is in the 10th - but not really involved in anything else. The chart is radical by triplicity and either Saturn on the IC is good for the underdogs, or it throws ice over the match. I think a draw has to be the correct starting point...

Neither of the above charts are particularly easy when there is nothing special shown in them.
http://www.astronor.com

4
Liverpool - Arsenal 4-0 after 20 minutes!! :shock: :shock:

OK, I missed something. The Moon, who is lady of the 1st and lady of the hours, makes a sextile to Uranus. I don't know whether it is relavant to reckon Uranus as co-ruler of the MC here - but something's going on!!

:sg The final result is 5-1!! Incredible!!
Now I wonder whether the sextile aspect actually proved useful here, since the sextile takes initiative - more than the trine that 'delivers good'. Anyone follow me on that?

Don't worry too much about the wrong result. It's only football and for the learning.
My heart is still with Solskjaer's team later today and I hope they get something out of the game.
http://www.astronor.com

5
Liverpool v Arsenal
Andrew, like you I had this down as a draw. Unexpected results, such as this, are worth examining after the event as they should provide a good learning opportunity.

I had noticed the sextile between the Moon and Uranus but did not give it much weight. :(

We can consider the surprise effect on its own as enough, but if we do allow Uranus as coruler of Aquarius (not something I usually do) then we have the wider question of what effect an aspect between L1 and L10 might have (or is it LH and L10). In particular, does a sextile strengthen the Home/Favourite? This might be worth watching.

6
Liverpool v Arsenal

Taking a different view of the chart: I have four games with Moon as Ascendant ruler and LHR, with Moon in an Air sign. All four games ended in victories, three home wins and an away win. Looking at the games I would have thought all four were favourite wins.

This is just an example of another way that I'm looking at these charts, although I don't have enough quantity of games yet to start looking ahead prior to the start of the match!!

7
John, that is an interesting observation :)

I have records of most Premier League games from 20 Aug 2005 to 29 Apr 2013, a total of 2646 games. Moon as L1 and LHr, irrespective of sign, is quite rare. In total there are only 59 matches with this combination, just 2.23% of all matches. I don't think we should worry about that. If we can find a strong indicator for 2% of matches, and another for a different 4% of matches, and another for some more matches, etc. we can build-up a set of different indicators which might allow us to predict a significant number of matches.

So, what did I find? First, I should say that I am using the usual time (Placidus house) method of determining the LHr as it seems to work best for this question.

On average, over the whole 2646 matches 26% end as draws, 47% as home wins and 27% as away wins. Also 53% are won by the favourite and 19% by the underdog (in the remaining 2% there was no clear favourite).

Moon as L1 and LHr produces just 10% of draws, rather than 26%. The rest were 58% home wins and 32% away wins, 61% favourite wins and 29% underdog wins.

Clearly draws are much rarer when the Moon is both L1 and LHr.

I then split the matches by the Moon's element and the proportion of draws was:

Fire 17.6% (3 draws in 17 matches)
Earth 8.3% (1 draw in 12 matches)
Air 7.7% (1 draw in 13 matches)
Water 5.9% (1 draw in 17 matches)

I then looked at the Cardinal/Fixed/Mutable split of the Moon:

Cardinal 14.3% (3 draws in 21 matches)
Fixed 4.3% (1 draw in 23 matches)
Mutable 13.3% (2 draws in 15 matches)

Finally, I looked at the house position of the Moon: Angular Succedent or Cadent. This had no effect, all three were at the average: 9.5%, 10.0% and 11.1%.

Graham

8
Hi there,

just saw the Liverpool-Arsenal chart, here's my interpretation after knowing the result:

I would take L1 (Moon) as the Liverpool and L7 (Saturn) as Arsenal. First thing is that both rulers are peregrine and cadent, which I would interpret as both having the same equal chances of winning (or draw)

In terms of accidental dignities, I would say that Saturn is a little bit stronger, because it is on the 6th, fast, while the Moon is on the 12th, and slow.

If we use William Lilly's rules for "battles", we could also take the planet for which the Moon separates as significator of Liverpool (Asc), and the planet for which Moon applies as significator of Arsenal.
Mercury (for Liverpool) is not of much help, by being in Exile+Fall, and although is in the 10th, it is Rx, among other accidental debilities. The planet for which the Moon applies (for Arsenal) is the Sun, which is also essentially debilitated, but in the 10th and in haiz (diurnal faction / masculine sign), although in a bad applicative aspect to Saturn . This does not improves things for Arsenal by much..

So far I would also say that this is a potential draw (although, by the way, I've tested that draws account for about 20% of the total games - tested, so far, in a test-set of 80 games of the premiere Portuguese league)

But what caught my eye is that Jupiter exalted in the Asc. According to William Lilly's rule about litigious processes (Chap. LIII), when only on battles and kingdoms, a planet is stronger if is in its exaltation than in its rulership. So, this is an essentially strong Jupiter. Accidentally, he is not so strong (Rx, void of course, diminishing light, contra-haiz, etc.), but it is balanced with being in the 1st house and free of the sun's rays.

We could say that the 7th has a strong Venus there, but, at least in my map (Alcabitus), Venus is technically in the 8th house (5 degree rule).


So, in conclusion, we have "bad" significators for both teams, but a strong exalted Jupiter in the Asc which could account for the winning of Liverpool..


Jo?o Ventura
Last edited by jventura on Sat Feb 08, 2014 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

9
Hi Graham

You record each and every Premiership game, individual and collective kick off times?? I thought what I was doing was time consuming, you must have this task as a full time job!! I'm impressed.

So are you in a position to confirm favourites and underdogs for previous games, if necessary???

Hi Joao,

Thanks for your analysis. I also prefer to use Alcabitius. I keep coming back to the question of whether I should treat a friendly sports game over a short period of time on the same basis as a battle chart. This is just part of my 'mixing everything' to look at these events differently. Whether this ends up being a dead-end, time will tell. That said, I am encouraged by Graham's statistical masterpiece on radicality.

11
GB wrote: On average, over the whole 2646 matches 26% end as draws, 47% as home wins and 27% as away wins. Also 53% are won by the favourite and 19% by the underdog (in the remaining 2% there was no clear favourite).
Hi Graham,

I can confirm some of your statistics on my Portuguese test set (although so far with only 80 matches).
- 26% draws - I have approx 21%
- 47% home wins and 27% away wins - on my test set is more towards 42%-38%

I've simulated picking a random winner (or a draw) with my data set, using the proportions above (20% draws, 40% for home team, 40% for visitors) and for 100.000 iterations it gives an average random around 36% (in 2 seconds calculation). This means that if we pickup the winner (or draw) using pure randomness we would get it right 36% of the time (and not 1/3 as one could theoretically expect). So 36% is our measure of "pure luck"..

I've been using my API (skyPlux) and I have been able, so far, to use a statistical metric (which uses a weighted average of the essential dignities of the significators) and it is correct for about 45% of the cases. This 45% is 9% above randomness, so in my opinion, it validates this astrology metric, moreover since it doesn't use other external information (such as who is the favorite, etc.).

I've replicated the same results in another smaller portuguese league test-set, but more testing is needed, and I'll include accidental dignities to see if I can push the results forward.

You also said that 53% of the games are won by the favorite. I confirm this number in my test set, in my case it is about 55% when the % given to the favorite is greater than 0.5. I use this site (http://www.zerozero.pt/jogo.php?id=2827031) to get the favorites and the proporties, and for Liverpool vs Arsenal, Arsenal was the favorite, but by less than 50% of the votes (so that info was not reliable for today's game)

So, as numbers concern, so far, selecting a winner by being the favorite yields better results.


Jo?o Ventura