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Evidence that chart rectification works
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Geoffrey



Joined: 09 Jul 2012
Posts: 380
Location: Scottish Borders

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 5:57 pm    Post subject: Evidence that chart rectification works Reply with quote

There must be a reasonable body of evidence for charts where the birth time was not known and for which the birth time was rectified - and then the true birth time came to light.

Someone must have done a study of this....?
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, I have several examples of this. All are using Polaris software in order to find the correct sequencing of (Topocentric) Primary Directions (see note below) to fit the (dated) events of the life. Once these potential times are found, a survey of Progressions and PSSR (Progressed Sidereal Solar Return (done Tropically)) will show which one of those times from Polaris is correct.

Each rectification is different. For astrologer Ken Haining, Polaris resolves his birthtime with only 3 dated events. (Admittedly, this is a special case, as usually quite a few more events are needed.) There is no magic formula that will tell us how many events are needed. Sometimes, with many events and a not too wide search range is still difficult to resolve; where for some, just a few events and a full 24 hour search range is easily solvable. Each rectification is its own animal, so to speak.

I had a client who wasn't sure of her birthtime and she had given me a time-window between 10:30 am and 12:30 pm. When I did the rectification, I automatically extended the search range a bit to make sure that all borderline times were found. The time that I found was actually between 3 and 4 minutes before the time period given. When she came for a reading, she quickly came in and started to apologize. She said that she had found her birth certificate and that the time was outside the range that she had given me and was recorded as being at 10:26 am. I must admit that I felt ecstatic as I showed her her printed horoscope with my rectified time, 10:26:14 am.

(from above) - Topocentric Primary Directions are used because 1) they are reliable and 2) a very slight change of birthtime makes a very large difference in the maturing dates of aspects. Because of this, it's like a very fine-tuning adjustment. ie. lining up the correct sequencing of Primary Directions fixes the birthtime to just seconds (of time). TPD's mature in under 0 6' of arc for all aspects except the Conj/Opp (which mature in under 0 11' of arc). Compare this to Transits, which are still operative out to 1 20' or more...

Take care

James
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Geoffrey



Joined: 09 Jul 2012
Posts: 380
Location: Scottish Borders

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2014 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Atlantean wrote:
Yes, I have several examples of this.....

....When she came for a reading, she quickly came in and started to apologize. She said that she had found her birth certificate and that the time was outside the range that she had given me and was recorded as being at 10:26 am. I must admit that I felt ecstatic as I showed her her printed horoscope with my rectified time, 10:26:14 am.


Well, that is impressive, but if I add that is it hardly conclusive I hope you will forgive me. By "several examples" how many are we talking about - two? And against this, how many cases are there where rectification did not work out quite so nicely?

It strikes me that it should be relatively straightforward to "test" astrology - at least, astrology as a predictive tool - by testing if rectification works or not.

A panel of suitable astrologers could be given the date and place of birth of a number of individuals, along with a list of dated events in their lives, which the said astrologers declare should enable them to narrow the birth time to within some specified limits. The astrologers could use whatever means, methods, or computer programs they deem suitable, thus allowing the subjective element into the test. The results, however, could be judged in a totally objective and statistical manner.

The test seems obvious enough that I am sure somebody has done it in some fashion already.
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Mjacob



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
Posts: 412
Location: Kent - England

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I certainly know of one case when a rectification was confirmed about two years later by a relative who was doubtless unaware. To replicate such a case one would need to know in advance that someone would come up with the time in the future. Hardly likely is it?
If several is not enough then how many and how many astrologers?
Not so simple surely?
If James says it works then his word is good enough for me

Matthew
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james_m



Joined: 05 Dec 2011
Posts: 2637
Location: vancouver island

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi geoffrey,

i don't know that their is any study of this. i think it is more astrologers working independently coming to a conclusion on the veracity of a chart based on their own methods.

i have 2 books on rectification - both from llewellyn publications, a company that noel tyl has a strong association with.. i can't figure out if tyl is more of a book seller then an astrologer, although i know he is considered a well known astrologer! both books seem to be coloured by his approach and neither one of them use primary directions, perhaps due the fact they haven't had astrology software for doing pds available up until more recently.

the books are - 'forecasting' backward and forward - modern techniques of timing and rectification by b.f. hammerslough 1994 and 'the complete book of chart rectification' by carol a. tebbs 2008. i got both books at a steep discount off the cover price fortunately. the first one is a good overview and a smart book. hammerslough does discuss primary directions. i quote from page 69 "Calculation of Primary Directions is an excruciatingly rigorous task because one has to take the measurements along the celestial equator and project them onto the ecliptic, taking into account the latitude of the observer and several other more arcane factors. even most astrological computer programs do not offer true Primary Directions becuase of the complexity and especially the lack of consensus concerning how to calculate them. Over the years, however, this system has been simplified for convenience to the point where it is now referred to as the "degree for a year" or "day for a year" method, and movement of the planets, personal points, and cusps becomes quite simple. One is left to ponder just how much accuracy has been lost through simplification of the true technique." - i like the part about 'lack of consensus concerning how to calculate them' as i think that still holds true in terms of the different options one has for doing them. clearly hammerslough was insightful in seeing the role primary directions had played in the longer history of astrology in spite of not being able to use them for rectification purposes back in the 90's during the publication of this book.

the same can't be said for carol tebbs.. llewellyn publications more recent books seem to promote other astrology books in the back over an index, which is unfortunate. it is possible tebbs mentions the use of primary directions somewhere in her book, but in reading over the introduction they are no where to be seen. perhaps this is to be accepted with the emphasis on modern astrological techniques - solar arc directions secondary progressions and transits of outer planets..

i have not read tebbs book yet. the reason i am pointing all this out is that the techniques used to arrive at a rectified chart need to be considered. if there is no standard methodology for doing them, or there is a standard that some astrologers don't share the same approach as, then it is no surprise that there are no studies on the validity of rectification.

this brings me to james a. approach. it would be good if james could comment on what his connection is to polaris rectification software which i seem to remember him promoting on his website at one point in time. this is a software program that includes primary directions that will generate a few different times based on feeding the program important dates from a persons experience when they don't have a birth time. isaac starkmen is the owner of the company as i understand it. for what it is worth, i have seen isaac give out rectified times on noel tyls site and elsewhere that will change as well! no harm in that, but it does alter the way one might be convinced of the value of rectification software or rectification more generally. read the source notes in ariel sharons astrodatabank link for an example - http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Sharon,_Ariel

it would be great if someone was to do a study on rectification but to my knowledge it has never been done in any public manner and shared.. one way it could be proven to have validity is thru a previous knowledge of the actual birth time but keeping that away from those doing the rectification work.. i would like to see it happen. in the meantime, it is every astrologer for himself, and be careful with the sales pitches for different rectification software available!!!
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waybread



Joined: 05 Mar 2009
Posts: 872
Location: Canada

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Geoffrey, I think it should be possible for a researcher to set up such a study, if it hasn't been done so far.

Let's assume Atlantean is "the researcher" as he seems to have a really good rectification program.

Method #1. Atlantean, you could work with actual subjects with known birth times, who don't tell you the time, but just answer whatever questions you ask. After crunching the rectification times, the subjects would reveal their actual times.

Method # 2. Alternatively, I think you could work with one other person as a research partner, using charts on the Astro-DataBank (at www.astro.com) or some other sources. The Astro-DataBank has large numbers of non-celebrity charts, if that matters. However, celebrities would be advantageous because so many details of their lives are known.

The idea is that these would be anonymous charts to you, but the other researcher would know who they were.

The research partner would select a large number of charts with Rodden AA birth time ratings, and then glean from the natives' biographical data whatever dates you asked for. You run the rectification procedure, and at the end of the process, you compare your findings with the known birth times.

I don't know what a decent sample size would be, whether you would be OK with a "convenience" sample, or whether you would want a random or systematic sample as a statistician would do.

On a personal note: I didn't know my birth time when I first started studying astrology. It wasn't on my birth certificate, and when I called the office in my county that kept vital statistics, I was told that if t wasn't on my birth certificate they didn't have it, either.

An astrologer incorrectly guessed my rising sign as Leo. Then I tucked into Laurie Efrein's book on chart rectification, and pegged my ascendant as early Libra. Some time afterwards, when sorting through my (late) mother's papers, I came across an unofficial birth certificate issued by the suburb where my parents lived when I was born. It turned out my ascendant is in late Virgo. While I wasn't too far out by degree, the sign was completely different.
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello james_m,

Re: Polaris

For clarification, let me explain my connection to Polaris...

*** I AM A VERY SATISFIED USER. ***

That's it. Yes, I built a web page to demonstrate the software, but that was as a support for the software and my friend, Isaac. (the author)

I have never made one single penny from the SALES of Polaris. I have spent untold dozens of hours demonstrating it.


James
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello Geoffrey,

Re: "It strikes me that it should be relatively straightforward to "test" astrology - at least, astrology as a predictive tool - by testing if rectification works or not."

Yes, I absolutely agree. The best test for me (of Isaac's methods, per Alexander Marr) is in the continual functioning of rectified charts.

Primary Directions change rapidly with just a very slight change in birthtime, which makes them ideal for rectification. [Lilly suggested that aligning appropriate Primary Directions to the dated-events in a person's life was the very best method of rectification...and he was using a much less precise version of Primary Directions!]

As an example...

...my rectification was done many years ago. Of course, my life kept proceeding and various events have "transpired." So, let's look at those few events that occurred post-rectification or that were not in my list of events at the time of the rectification and see how well that rectification holds up...

Death of Grandmother:

TPD Pluto conjunct Node (0 4' orb)
Prg 8th inconjunct Node (0 0' orb)

Death of Aunt Alice:

TPD Saturn inconjunct Node (0 5' orb)
Prg 8th opposite Venus (0 2' orb)

Death of step-Father:

TPD 8th square Mercury (0 0' orb)
TPD Moon conjunct Pluto (0 2' orb)
Prg 8th inconjunct Mars (0 0' orb)
Prg MC conjunct Saturn (0 3' orb)

Death of ex-Wife:

Moon inconjunct 8th (0 5' orb)
Prg 8th semisquare Saturn (0 3' orb)

Four deaths expressed in 10 aspects, which works out to average orb of
0 2.4' of arc per aspect!

Notice in every case of death here that the 8th Cusp (or directed 8th Cusp) is involved in all of them. Shows where the 8th Cusp actually is... Go Topocentric!

Peace

James
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james_m



Joined: 05 Dec 2011
Posts: 2637
Location: vancouver island

Posted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks for the transparency james a. i couldn't tell, but glad you continue to give a clear endorsement for something you have consistently given a strong endorsement for, so much so it always comes across as a sales pitch!
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Geoffrey



Joined: 09 Jul 2012
Posts: 380
Location: Scottish Borders

Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Waybread has the jist of what I was thinking. A test set up along the lines suggested by Waybread would seem reasonably straightforward to do.

Waybread, for what it is worth, I have my ascendant in the first degree of Leo. (I am lucky, my mother had the presence of mind to look at the clock as I let out my first cry!) But I have the feeling that I was more Cancer like in my younger days and it was as I grew older that Leo type qualities came to the fore. With your ascendant near a sign cusp, perhaps you have the same impression - that you have evolved from Virgo to Libra as you got older?

Atlantean, I don't mean to rain on your parade, but the fact that Polaris has an efficient pattern recognition algorithm and has found matches between life events and planetary positions is not proof of rectification, or that prediction using that information has been successful.
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello Geoffrey,

Re: "Atlantean, I don't mean to rain on your parade..."

You couldn't. Being able to rain ON my parade implies that you're in an elevated or superior position.

Re: "...but the fact that Polaris has an efficient pattern recognition algorithm and has found matches between life events and planetary positions is not proof of rectification..."

Closest thing we have to a scientific proof. [By the way, it doesn't use pattern recognition...it checks the times of the search range and for every moment checked, a weighted score is summed relating to how appropriate the factors are relative to the events, across ALL events. There is no possibility of observational bias from the Astrologer. It's basically a Black Box. Still, one has to know how to use it to get the most from it...]

Re: "...or that prediction using that information has been successful."

Using these methods, there have been many pre-posted predictions, including every election since Reagan.

Got any more spitballs to shoot at the wall to see if any stick?

Since you're unsure of your exact birthtime, how about if I publicly demonstrate how to find it? [This would involve your sharing a list of EVENTS from your life...]

Peace

James
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Paul
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Joined: 23 Nov 2009
Posts: 1391

Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever claims Atlantean makes nor what his own personal success stories are, they are not a study of the efficacy of his rectification technique that would convince others.

Geoffrey, why don't you examine Atlantean's methods, get Polaris and you could then enact the study yourself. You could follow Waybread's example, only in this instance you would be the researcher?

I actually think the arena of rectification is a very interesting one with regards not just proving rectification, but astrology as a whole. If someone can narrow down a birth time to within a few minutes from a range of several hours, say, and did so to a high enough degree, it could be statistically probable enough to convince some people about astrology.
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Larxene



Joined: 22 Sep 2012
Posts: 312

Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Haha, I was gonna suggest what Waybread said (Method 2), but I guess that is no longer necessary Very Happy

It is interesting that you suggested a blind experiment, I forgot about that and did not really think it was necessary...but it is good to be careful not to introduce systematic bias if possible.

About the Astro-Databank sample though, can we claim that it is a random sample? I think not. The charts in the database are often those people who are prominent or infamous in some way, and if we want to gather sufficient events to rectify the charts, this may also make it less random (i.e. people whose live events are more known will be more likely to be selected).

Furthermore, we would prefer to work with AA charts for this study, so that further de-randomises the sample.

Also, is the sample representative? That's hard to answer, because the demographic profile of the sample is very heterogenous.

If we cannot have a sufficiently random and representative sample, we might be inclined to strive for a large sample instead. The problem with this is, it may exaggerate small effects.

Which brings us to the fundamental question: how should we construct the hypothesis test? Or do we really need one?
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello Paul,

Re: "Whatever claims Atlantean makes nor what his own personal success stories are, they are not a study of the efficacy of his rectification technique that would convince others."

I think you mean to say, "...of his rectification technique that would convince all others." Many HAVE been convinced of it. (and I have done quite a few rectifications for other astrologers) I have long given up on there being any (universal) consensus among astrologers. I once was arguing with an astrologer about Primary Directions relative to events. For the event, "Death of Father", there was a Saturn-MC aspect and they (for the life of them) could not see how that aspect could relate to that event. Sometimes, it is a lost cause. Wink

Re: "Geoffrey, why don't you examine Atlantean's methods..."

Yes, by all means! Juan Estadella has a book (FOR FREE to download from his website (in the book section)) that explains the main elements and demonstrates Polaris quite effectively. It's free...you'll only have to find time to read it and an open mind to contemplate it.

Re: "...get Polaris and you could then enact the study yourself."

Polaris is not available currently. The author is working on a subsequent version of the program and is not actively selling the current version. [He normally spent quite a bit of (his own) time to make sure that purchasers became proficient in the methods, which took a lot of time. He is reserving his time for the updated version, so buying Polaris currently is not possible.] The newer version should add functionality, but the main algorithm has already proven itself (a hundred times over, to my satisfaction).

Re: "I actually think the arena of rectification is a very interesting one with regards not just proving rectification, but astrology as a whole."

This was my approach with Rudolf Smit (skeptic) about how to prove Astrology actually functions. I have seen Polaris be able to go from an event list to a birthtime (often a well-documented, closely-timed one) so many times, that I know this is one sure method to prove it to a scientist, since said scientist would not be able to deny that the odds of just lucking into the actual birthtime within +/- 5 minutes would be 143:1. Doing it just three times in three tries implies 2,985,983:1 odds. There is MORE of a chance to flip a coin and call it (correctly) 21 times in a row!

I offered to demonstrate the methods on a test subject (a skeptical one at that) publicly. I don't know what more of a good faith offering I could have made.

Peace

James
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One problem with Waybread's method #2 should be obvious...

The AA-rated database (birthtimes we supposedly can trust), is tremendously x:00, x:15, x:30, and x:45 heavy! ie. Even though AA-rated, pure mathematical probability informs us that they CAN NOT be correct. Real birthtimes do not congregate around even 15 minute intervals of time.

The AA-rated database, created to give us astrologers birthtimes we can rely on, proves its own error statistically, by having a massively disproportionate representation of births (supposedly, but not possible in reality) at the even 15 minutes. How ironic!

Some of the times are of course correct, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Anyone with even a beginner's understanding of mathematical probability should understand why this is so.

For the benefit of those who are having a bit of trouble wrapping their mind around what I am saying, let's make an analogy...

The birthtimes (in the AA-rated database) have way too many birthtimes at (say) 3:00, 3:15, 3:30, and 3:45 and not enough birthtimes at 3:02, 3::17, 3:29, etc. An analogous situation would be for someone to go and measure the heights of trees in nature and if they reported that MOST trees were an exact number of feet tall, wouldn't you be skeptical, since it's obvious that there should be many more trees with irregular heights than even ones, to the foot? Same with the birthtimes... it is IMPOSSIBLE that significantly more birthtimes center on these even times. It is obvious the time was rounded. What does a rounded birthtime mean? IT'S WRONG!!!! The problem is...no one (except an expert rectifier) has the possibility to determine which were rounded... or from Paul's point of view, no one. (period)

We have a supposedly reliable database of birthtimes that a quick observation quickly shows us is not worth the paper it's not printed on. Wink

James


Last edited by Atlantean on Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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