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What House System Do You Prefer?
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What House System do you Prefer?
Alcabitius
9%
 9% 
Placidus
19%
 19% 
Whole Sign
51%
 51% 
Equal
3%
 3% 
Koch
3%
 3% 
Regiomontanus
12%
 12% 

Author Message
lihin



Joined: 14 Dec 2009
Posts: 470
Location: Mount Kailash

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 8:28 am    Post subject: Required test data Reply with quote

Good morning,

Reference is made to Mr Atlantean's recent post on his testing methods in favour of the Topocentric system of topical places.

Although any testing endeavours that go beyond "it works on my chart" are in my humble opinion laudable and i am not a professional mathematician, it seems to me that the applied methods as described by Mr Atlantean would clearly be considered 'anecdotal evidence'.

Some items to consider in statistical test design:

    1. all assumed premises, ex. gr. zodiac, meanings of houses, meanings of planets, selection of planets and points, directional systems and their calculations, one-to-one attributions of planetary and point combinations to specific types of event, must be stated in writing in advance, thus limiting the undefined variable to topical house system;

    2. sufficient accuracy, generally within four minutes of time, of both nativities and events;

    3. possible independent verification of both nativities and events, id est publication of all underlying data and their sources;

    4. statistically sufficient numbers of nativities and events to draw from;

    5. random selections of nativities and events from lists;

    6. findings must be reproducible with other random data sets and the same underlying assumptions.

One of the difficulties comes to mind: astrologers are very seldom in agreement on the underlying assumptions for an astrological system. Each change in such assumptions would imply new rigorous testing.

Best regards,

lihin
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello lihin,

Please, Atlantean, not Mr. Atlantean...

Re: "Although any testing endeavors that go beyond "it works on my chart" are in my humble opinion laudable and i am not a professional mathematician, it seems to me that the applied methods as described by Mr Atlantean would clearly be considered 'anecdotal evidence'."

I have nothing to add to that statement... it is true as is. The continuous, reliable lining up of relevant astrological aspects to just minutes of arc with relevant house cusps appears to you to be anecdotal evidence. I am sure that is your belief, so what is there to discuss on that point? We both agree that it's your belief.

I attended college on a mathematical scholarship, so perhaps our perspectives are quite different.

In the attempt to prove anything, we must take into account the probability that the examined circumstance could be coincidental. Let's take a quick example... of flipping a coin, since we all can relate to it and the probabilities are easier to see since there are only two possible outcomes. Obviously, the chances of a specific outcome (heads or tails) in flipping a coin is 50%. Now, if someone says, I can flip a coin and make it land any way that I want and they flip the coin ONCE and are right, they've really only "defeated" 50% odds against his being right. Anyone witnessing this would likely say, "so what?!" Now, if he instead called 10 heads to be followed by 10 tails and accomplished it, EVERYONE would say, "WOW" (after examining the coin) Wink Why? Because of the odds that were defeated in the repetitive display. In this case, we have 0.5 ^ 20 = 0.0000954% likelihood of success. (or a 99.9999% chance against)

THIS is exactly my reasoning in the House System analysis.

Let's take into account the very narrow orb that I am discussing (always less than 0° 11'). If we divide a circle by 0° 11', we see that there are (approx) 1963 of those "slices." In terms of the conjunctions (only), that means that for my Primary Directed Ascendant to land in the same slice as my natal Venus (at the exact date I got married), it has defeated 1/1963 odds (or 0.051% chance of success / 99.949% chance of failure). [Yes, I realize that other symbolism can define the event (my first marriage was symbolized by Asc conjunct Node), however, for this particular line-up, the probabilities are representative as relative the (Directed) Ascendant and Venus in isolation...] For a relevant conjunction to a house cusp, the probabilities are identical, in this example.

Re: "1. all assumed premises, ex. gr. zodiac, meanings of houses, meanings of planets, selection of planets and points, directional systems and their calculations, one-to-one attributions of planetary and point combinations to specific types of event, must be stated in writing in advance, thus limiting the undefined variable to topical house system;"

Most on here have at least moderate experience in standard astrology. In other words, on some level this is kindergarten requirements imposed on post-graduates.

Re: "2. sufficient accuracy, generally within four minutes of time, of both nativities and events;"

You'll need a LOT tighter than 4 minute accuracy if you plan to survey Primary Directions. As someone who has worked extensively with Primary Directions, I can state clearly that the birthtime will need to be accurate to within seconds and that the event date doesn't need any more precision than the date, since the factors are moving so slowly that 12 hours of time is completely inconsequential...

Re: "3. possible independent verification of both nativities and events, id est publication of all underlying data and their sources;"

Normally, printed approximations of birthtime are not sufficiently defined in order to use Primary Directions NOR to give any reliable location for even the angles, until properly verified. [Rodden rating "AA" means there is a specific birth document, it says nothing as to that document's actual accuracy. How could it?!!!]

Re: "4. statistically sufficient numbers of nativities and events to draw from;"

Because of the calculations involved in the actual probability and statistics of each event relative to the astrological factors, this "statistically sufficient number" that you reference is much smaller than would normally be guesstimated.

Re: "5. random selections of nativities and events from lists;"

Use sequential nativities and entire event lists...

Re: "6. findings must be reproducible with other random data sets and the same underlying assumptions."

So far, these results have been reproduced in every subsequent chart analyzed.

Re: "One of the difficulties comes to mind: astrologers are very seldom in agreement on the underlying assumptions for an astrological system. Each change in such assumptions would imply new rigorous testing."

I agree completely with the idea of testing. Many of the ideas (stated above) seem too stringent in that they imply a general stupidity on the part of the examiners, which I don't think actually applies. ie. If a person has "Birth of Brother" and in Primary Directions Mars is exactly conjunct the 3rd House, anyone who says "I can't see how the astrology is relevant to the event" is an IDIOT. If we're talking about "Brothers" does one really have to pre-state the "3rd House"? If we're talking about "Overseas Travel" does one really have to pre-state the "9th House"? Are your points representing "astrologers" or "skeptics that have never read an astrology book"???

So that I can wrap my mind around your particular perspective, I want to list some events (from my Wife's chart) and the relevant aspects (Primary Directions). If you would just tell me (from the list below) any one's that the event and the astrology don't match (from your perspective).... THANKS.

Wife travels overseas to be exchange student: Asc --> Jupiter (0° 8' orb)

Beginning sexual relationship: 5th --> Mars (0° 9' orb)

Separation in above relationship: 5th --> Uranus (0° 8' orb)

Broken back: Asc --> Pluto (0° 11' orb)

Meet future Husband (me, Astrologer): Uranus --> Asc (0° 2' orb)

Sudden move to U.S.: Uranus --> IC (0° 4' orb)

Death of Grandmother: IC --> Saturn (0° 0' orb)

Financial loss: Mars --> 2nd (0° 4' orb)

Birth of Daughter: Uranus --> 5th (0° 1' orb)

...this gives a cumulative orb of 0° 47' for NINE aspects or an average orb of 0° 5' per aspect.


Take care

James


Last edited by Atlantean on Mon Mar 25, 2013 9:19 am; edited 1 time in total
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Nixx



Joined: 10 Dec 2011
Posts: 295

Posted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lihin wrote:


Some items to consider in statistical test design:


l



In the 'real world' if an Astrologer wanted to prove, or know, their Horoscopic notions had a relationship to life on it they would need to show this world that they can find the right data, tob/dob/pob, from a randomly generated sample.

After a few weeks or months, under controlled conditons, they and we would probably have an answer.

Your ''test design''might be a way of operationalising the above, but I'm not sure it is ?
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Atlantean



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Posts: 396

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello Nixx

Re: "In the 'real world' if an Astrologer wanted to prove, or know, their Horoscopic notions had a relationship to life on it they would need to show this world that they can find the right data, tob/dob/pob, from a randomly generated sample."

Not quite sure exactly what you're saying here.

"Normally", we have a birth date, time, and place and then, using the events of their life, we painstakenly make that time more precise. Primary Directions are perfect for this purpose. Interestingly, the Secondary Progressions (and other reliable techniques) confirm whether this time is correct.

In my case, my birth was listed as 6:18 am... using Primary Directions, it is quite easy to see that my actual birthtime is 6:16:44 am or 1 minute and 16 seconds earlier than the time written down by the nurse. Using this birthtime (arrived at SOLELY through Primary Directions), it is seen that these exact angles/cusps are confirmed using Secondary Progressions, Progressed Sidereal Solar Returns, and Age Harmonics. [The Transits also confirm, but since Transits normally can mature as wide as 1° 20', this confirmation is not so precise. It's the same reason why Transits are a poor tool for rectification...]

When we have a very tight birthtime documented, what exactly is the purpose that is accomplished by selecting that time out of a random list of birthdata? Finding which time is correct (during a day) is not so difficult if there are plenty of dated events.

When rectifying Ken Haining's chart, just three events leads us unequivocally to the right birthtime. Dropping those three and using another dozen events doesn't change that time by even one second.

Take care

James
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lihin



Joined: 14 Dec 2009
Posts: 470
Location: Mount Kailash

Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 5:35 pm    Post subject: Perhaps ... Reply with quote

Good afternoon,

Perhaps Atlantean's conclusions are correct, perhaps not. Based on the evidence given until now, we simply do not yet know. To me it is encouraging that at least some contributors to this thread consider statistical evidence and a scientific approach as relevant to astrology. Others tend to ignore that great astrologers of a not so distant past were also amongst their era's greatest mathematicians and scientists, ex. gr. Herr Johannes Kepler.

Has anyone else been able to independently confirm Atlantean's findings? One of their underlying assumptions apparently is the relevance of the beginnings of the houses ('cusps'). As they play a role in the calculations of some of the Hellenistic lots, Dr H of Regulus Astrology used these for tests of Whole Sign and Alcabitius systems in his 800-page Rectification Manual without obtaining unambiguous results.

Best regards,

lihin
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Nixx



Joined: 10 Dec 2011
Posts: 295

Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Atlantean wrote:

Not quite sure exactly what you're saying here.




Just standard experimental design. You could set the parameters as long as no data was revealed. Within reason, needing to sleep with the person or know what they were up to on the 2nd Sunday in March 48 years ago might be unrealistic.

Your primary direction notions would, or might, interest ‘reality’ if you could demonstrate they had any attached to them after a few sets of 1 from 10 challenges.
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Chris Brennan



Joined: 22 Sep 2005
Posts: 193
Location: Denver, Colorado, USA

Posted: Fri Apr 05, 2013 3:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How many people have responded to the poll at this point? Whole sign houses is currently at 57%, which seems remarkably high. I know that usage of whole sign houses has really taken off over the past few years, but I'm still a bit surprised to see the figure be that high.
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damon



Joined: 23 Sep 2012
Posts: 419

Posted: Sat Apr 06, 2013 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chris Brennan wrote:
How many people have responded to the poll at this point? Whole sign houses is currently at 57%, which seems remarkably high. I know that usage of whole sign houses has really taken off over the past few years, but I'm still a bit surprised to see the figure be that high.


http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=7145

but look at Iles example Chris.
how do you explain the differences in those two charts with wsh?
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Chris Brennan



Joined: 22 Sep 2005
Posts: 193
Location: Denver, Colorado, USA

Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

damon wrote:

http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=7145

but look at Iles example Chris.
how do you explain the differences in those two charts with wsh?



I don't feel like I know enough about Ile's two friends in order to really make an assessment, but it seems like there are a lot of other differences between those two charts besides just the house placements.
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lihin



Joined: 14 Dec 2009
Posts: 470
Location: Mount Kailash

Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 5:46 pm    Post subject: Primary directions an independant criterion? Reply with quote

Good evening,

A majority of the responses for Whole Sign Houses has surprised me as well.

Statistical testing of astrological assumptions is indeed difficult as it requires isolation of effects of individual variables.

Let us take primary directions as an example. Even assuming that everyone agrees on calculation methods, keys, aspects, etc., and obtains the same data (vast assumptions indeed, as we have seen in other threads), they seem further from 'objectivity' than many appear to think. Reference is made again to Dr H's A Rectification Manual. With many well documented examples he illustrated the importance of house, sign and confines! placements of the planets and points involved in the primary directions, also in the underlying event chart. Dr H has apparently not yet tested Chaldaean confines.

Best regards,

lihin
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johannes susato



Joined: 04 Jan 2009
Posts: 1464

Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where have all these astonishing votes or results of voting gone? Shocked
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zoomaster



Joined: 31 Jul 2010
Posts: 27
Location: Hyderabad, India

Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 5:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by zoomaster on Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:46 am; edited 1 time in total
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james_m



Joined: 05 Dec 2011
Posts: 3482
Location: vancouver island

Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 6:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

as someone who voted and am a part of the 3% group, i am very happy about that too, lol.. i never thought there was ever any strength in numbers, lol..
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