skyscript.co.uk
   

home articles forum events
glossary horary quiz consultations links more

Read this before using the forum
Register
FAQ
Search
View memberlist
View/edit your user profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
Recent additions:
Can assassinations be prevented? by Elsbeth Ebertin
translated by Jenn Zahrt PhD
A Guide to Interpreting The Great American Eclipse
by Wade Caves
The Astrology of Depression
by Judith Hill
Understanding the mean conjunctions of the Jupiter-Saturn cycle
by Benjamin Dykes
Understanding the zodiac: and why there really ARE 12 signs of the zodiac, not 13
by Deborah Houlding

Skyscript Astrology Forum

Full Moon effects

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Forum Index -> Nativities & General Astrology
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
damon



Joined: 23 Sep 2012
Posts: 419

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:55 pm    Post subject: Full Moon effects Reply with quote

Today is full moon. There has been research on full moon recently.There is nothing wrong with that research as such. But the conclusion they take from it is questionable. And, as is not rarely the case, the journalist who wrote this piece for popular science website, is not very neutral in his reporting.

http://www.ghpjournal.com/article/S0163-8343%2812%2900320-9/abstract

Quoting: "Significant seasonal effects were observed on panic and anxiety disorders, with panic more frequently encountered during spring [odds ratio (OR)=1.378, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.0021.896] and anxiety disorders during summer (OR=1.586, 95% CI=1.0372.425). Except for one significant finding, no significant effects of lunar cycles were observed. These findings encourage ED professionals and physicians to abandon their beliefs about the influence of lunar cycles on the mental health of their patients. Such unfounded beliefs are likely to be maintained by self-fulfilling prophecies. So, they found significant seasonal effects (which doesn't even get mentioned by the journalist), and they had one significant finding for lunar effect (which gets brushed under the carpet). There is of course a problem with brushing the significant finding for lunar cycle under the carpet by saying that 32% less anxiety in last quarter must be some coincidence. How do they know? The proper conclusion would have been that more research will be needed on that effect. Now they are effectively saying: when we negate the significant lunar effects, then there are no significant lunar effects. Which is a classic example of begging the question. If we negate the rain and the wind, then one can also "prove" that Britain has a pretty good climate. Heheh? Further observations: 1) this was a limited study on 771 people with a very specific chest pain. Even if it had showed a completely negative result for lunar phase effects (which was not the case), they cannot extend that result to all people. If I study a village of 771 people and cannot find a single thief, then it doesn't lead to the conclusion that the entire country has no thieves. That would be the logical error of generalization. 2) The seasonal effects they found are quite interesting. Panic is connected to imbalance of the element Water in Chinese metaphysics. In spring season Water gets drained by the growing Wood, and this study shows increased panic attacks in spring. Nice. They also find more anxiety disorders in summer. Restlessness is a characteristic of Fire, so stronger Fire in summer leads to anxiety and also keeps Water weak. Anxiety disorders usually come with panic attacks. So this all fits the 5 element theory quite well. Metal and Water are known for a calming effect, so less panics in autumn and winter. What they fail to notice is that the last quarter of the lunar phase cycle happens to be the Metal-Water part of that cycle (because New Moon = Water/ Rat, ). Both parts of their study thus found the same calming effect in seasonal cycle and in lunar cycle. People are more calm in the Metal/Water part of these cycles (= last quarter and days around New Moon). Anxiety/panic increases in the Wood and Fire parts of these cycles ( = 2nd quarter and Full Moon) As it happens, that is also what I found in my LunaticTrader stock market research. Investors have been more anxious in 2nd quarter and days around Full Moon for over 60 years (and counting...).. An effect that has been confirmed by various researchers. So much for there being no lunar phase effect.. Now, it's easy to criticize this as "typical" Western scientific research. But it is a known fact that there is a lot of "bad" scientific research. More than half of the scientific research papers get little or no cites by colleagues. When wrong conclusions are made, then it gets refuted and the paper gets forgotten,.. or may lead to better hypotheses and better research. This is all part of the normal dialectics that go on in scientific research. It is that dynamic that is lacking in fields like astrology. When was the last time that astrologers agreed to discard one of their methods/theories after it was refuted within the field? That never seems to happen.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
johannes susato



Joined: 04 Jan 2009
Posts: 1464

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Full Moon effects Reply with quote

damon wrote:
When was the last time that astrologers agreed to discard one of their methods/theories after it was refuted within the field? That never seems to happen.

Hello damon,

it is impossible to argue upon an article, that one has not read, but I do not want to buy this complete article as interesting it might be perhaps to read the whole text.

But - and this is meant as a break-in, not wanting to begin an off topic discussion here, under the "full Moon" - what methods/theories do you think of were refuteded within the field, please. No discussion of your examples here - promised.

Johannes
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
damon



Joined: 23 Sep 2012
Posts: 419

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Full Moon effects Reply with quote

johannes susato wrote:
damon wrote:
When was the last time that astrologers agreed to discard one of their methods/theories after it was refuted within the field? That never seems to happen.
Hello damon, it is impossible to argue upon an article, that one has not read, but I do not want to buy this complete article as interesting it might be perhaps to read the whole text. But - and this is meant as a break-in, not wanting to begin an off topic discussion here, under the "full Moon" - what methods/theories do you think of were refuteded within the field, please. No discussion of your examples here - promised. Johannes


Hi Joahnnes

Some are mentioned in astrology and sciencelike the Gauguelin study.
The big problem is that too many astrologers respond with a "it worked for me" but this works for me is often subjective.
Astrologers are Uranian,individualistic, this makes research often very difficult.
How often do you see an astrologer saying openly : " I quit method so and so because it doesnt work" ?
Some even claim tropical astrology has no claims to be tested.
But what I wanted to point out here is how scientific research is often biased,as in the case of Full moon
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Morpheus



Joined: 21 Mar 2007
Posts: 764
Location: Rawalpindi/Islamabad (Pakistan)

Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Damon,

Quote:
How often do you see an astrologer saying openly : " I quit method so and so because it doesnt work" ?


I quit using 'Ptolemy Terms' but it did not make the Headline News back in 2009 . Laughing
_________________
Regards

Morpheus

https://horusastropalmist.wordpress.com/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
damon



Joined: 23 Sep 2012
Posts: 419

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Full Moon effects Reply with quote

johannes susato wrote:
damon wrote:
When was the last time that astrologers agreed to discard one of their methods/theories after it was refuted within the field? That never seems to happen.

Hello damon,

it is impossible to argue upon an article, that one has not read, but I do not want to buy this complete article as interesting it might be perhaps to read the whole text.

But - and this is meant as a break-in, not wanting to begin an off topic discussion here, under the "full Moon" - what methods/theories do you think of were refuteded within the field, please. No discussion of your examples here - promised.

Johannes


Hi Joahnnes

I am not sure what the references to the full moon mean in this context.

You seem to misunderstand my question.

I don't know of any examples where astrologers agreed to discard one of the methods in their field, after it was refuted within the field.
So I am asking when was the last time that something like that happened. Maybe somebody else knows.

You don't seem to know such examples either, so youre just returning my question.

Why is the question relevant?
Well, if in a given field no theory/method ever gets discarded, then how is that field supposed to progress?
New ideas/methods are always being invented/proposed in any field that is alive.
These new methods may or may not get a "following". Some of them do get traction within the field.
But if no methods are ever discarded, then it can only lead to a field that is ever more fragmented into different "schools" and "theories", and thus ever more failing to converge towards a commonly accepted body of knowledge. Each of these schools remains convinced that its own methods are better, but none of them is able to convince any other school about which method is better.

If nothing ever gets discarded then it cannot be very healthy for a given field.
That's why I ask: when was the last time that astrologers agreed to discard one of their theories?
When was the last time they succeeded to refute some method within their field?

See, it is not the outsiders or the "skeptics" that pose problems for astrology.
It is when the insiders/experts themselves do not seem to agree on much if anything, cannot agree on discarding any theory or method in their field,... that's what doesn't bode well for the field as a whole. Because the implication is that the "evidence" within the field must be too weak to convince each other. The evidence is so weak that even the experts in the field fail to agree, and have failed to agree for centuries.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Olivia



Joined: 15 Oct 2008
Posts: 866

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Damon, you may be forgetting that astrology pretty much died in the late 1600s. While we have a fairly decent idea at this point of how astrology works, we're still in the process of translating texts to discover what was lost. It's a tad premature to start tossing things from a 'tradition' that dates back to the 1980s, which is when the revival pretty much started.

I grant that another form of astrology was created in the late 1800s/early 1900s that started out being based in theosophy, took a detour through Jungian theory, then there was Rudhyar's stuff and at this point I can't even keep up anymore.

I'm sure there are some folks here who practise that form of astrology, the modern stuff. There are also quite a lot who gave that up, but the situation is not what you seem to think it is - there's hardly been an uninterrupted tradition of astrology, and a little over 30 years into the recovery process is a little too early to start pitching things, unless I've completely misunderstood you here.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
damon



Joined: 23 Sep 2012
Posts: 419

Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Olivia
Yes I was referring to modern astrologers in particular as you might expect.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Forum Index -> Nativities & General Astrology All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
. Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group

       
Contact Deborah Houlding  | terms and conditions  
All rights on all text and images reserved. Reproduction by any means is not permitted without the express
agreement of Deborah Houlding or in the case of articles by guest astrologers, the copyright owner indictated