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French Presidential Election

 
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Mark
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Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 10:27 pm    Post subject: French Presidential Election Reply with quote

The first round of the 2012 French presidential election will take place on 22 April 2012, with a second round run-off, being held on 6 May 2012. The incumbent president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is running for a second successive (and, under the terms of the constitution, final) term in the election. As no candidate is likely to get over 50% of the vote in the first ballot the election will go forward to a second round on May 6th. The two candidates with the highest percentage of the vote will go forward to the second ballot or run-off.

It is almost certain that the two final candidates will be the incubent right of centre incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy and his main challenger the Socialist candidate François Hollande. The polls consistently indicate a lead for the Socialist Hollande who is running something like 55%-45% ahead of Sarkozy in a straight two candidate run off.

However, despite the polls looking unpromising for Sarkozy I am more interested in seeing what the astrology is telling us. Rather than just look at the natal charts of the leading candidates I want to examine some other charts used in mundane astrology.

First of all there is the traditional technique of the Aries ingress. The election is taking place in this quarter so it can be used as an indicator of the likely fortunes of the candidates. Below is the French Aries ingress for 2012 located for Paris.

Aries Ingress


In the traditional method the 10th house represents the King. This is equivalent to the President in the modern French republic. In this chart Jupiter is the domicile ruler of the MC. Here it is peregrine and located in the 2nd house by sign division and the 3rd by signs.

Traditionally the opponents of the King (the political opposition) is represented by the IC/4th house. The domicile ruler Mercury is angular by sign division in the 1st but in the 2nd counting by sign. Despite its angularity Mercury is quite debilitated here by being retrograde, peregrine, and combust the Sun.

The Mercury in Aries seems to reflect the radical tax plans of the socialists quite well while the more conservative message of Sarkozy fits the Jupiter in Taurus. Generaly, the angularity of mercury would be a stronger indicator but there seem a lot of indications working against this here.

Looking at other indications the Moon is the natural significator of the public and here it is on the ASC which equally has associations with national will and identity. The Moon is disposited by Jupiter here. This seems to support the chances of the incumbent (Sarkozy). This view is strengthened as the Moon applies to an opposition of Mars (the dispositor of Lord 4). Following this it applies to a sextile of Jupiter (Lord 10).

Of course there are other tools at the disposal. One very popular type political chart for elections are the opening and close of poll charts. Unfortunately, as in so many areas astrologers disagree which is the more indicative of the result!

The Case for the Opening of Poll Chart
Advocates of the opening of poll chart make the common astrological case that an election is a contest and should be assessed by its start time. We see this principal in many areas of astrology for the inception of an event which is is the key seed moment.

The Case for the Close of Poll Chart
Advocates of the close of poll chart argue that an election is not the same as a nativity. They argue the end of the poll represents the end of the process. With all the votes cast we are seeing the final outcome. Another point used by advocates of this approach is that many countries allow postal voting before the opening of polls so it no longer represents the start of the process in many elections.

The forthcoming French Presidential election gives us an interesting opportunity to test out both outlooks. Indeed with the opening and closing of polls on May 6th 12 hours apart (08.00 to 20.00 hrs) the planetary rulership of the angles are completely reversed giving us different rulers of the angles.

One interesting characteristic of the opening of poll chart is that the Moon is full and appying to an opposition of Jupiter. With Jupiter the MC ruler this seems an indicator vs Sarkozy with the loss of public support. Oppositions always seem to be separative in effect. The Moon in the close of poll chart is void of course according to some approaches too. Although as I use traditional fixed orbs across the sign boundary I see the Moon applying to a square of Mars. The Moon is also in fall in Scorpio. All of this may well reflect the difficulties of the French economy and the Euro. Mars is also squaring the Nodes emphasizing the hightened tension of the opposing political campaigns.

The next issue is how do we delineate these charts? In particular what do the house rulers represent in terms of an election?

There are actually a number of possible approachhes:

1) The 10th=Incumbent, 4th=challenger. As cited in Aries ingress chart.
2) ASC =challenger. 7th vs the incumbent. Utilising Bonatti's open battle method.
3) ASC=Challenger. The 4th =the incumbent. Utilising Bonatti's Castle besigement method.

I will concentrate on Bonatti's method below. Here is an article by Bernadette Brady setting out these methods.

http://www.bernadettebrady.com/Pdfs/Charts%20of%20Conflict%20and%20Battles%20-%20Bernadette%20Brady.pdf

Bonatti sets out two types of contest. One between rivals with equal positions. Thus we have the analogy of two armies meeting in an open field. However, in the castle besigement model of contest there is a clear incumbent. In sports the equivalent would be a sports champion defending their title. I consider a Presidential contest as we have in France more like the castle besigement type of contest. Sarkozy is clearly the incumbent and sitting President. Hollande is the challenger and must remove Sarkozy from his current role.

I will therefore be using the castle besigement method to delineate the opening of poll chart. In this kind of approach the challenger is represented by the ASC while the incumbent or defender is represented by the 4th house.

Opening of Polls


As this is a method of Bonatti who used quadrant houses I will delineate using Placidus houses here. Lord 4 is the Sun which is in the cadent 12th house. The ASC ruler (Mercury) representing the challenger is located at the end of the fortunate 11th house. However, it is more clearly in the 11th in other quadrant systems (Alcabitius, Koch, Porphry, Regio) even allowing for the 5 degree rule. Mercury is making no applying aspects and is void of course during the entire election day. Mars is in the 4th quadrant house. Bonatti considers the presence of a malefic in the 4th a negative indicator for the incumbent/defender. This is compounded here as Mars is out of sect and is peregrine. Overall I would say this method of delineation favours the challenger.

Close of Polls


Castle Besiegement Method

In the close of poll chart the ASC is Scorpio. The Moon is located in the 1st house. Generally, this could be seen as a sign of popular support for the challenger. However, the Moon is in fall in Scorpio. I wonder if the fallen state of this Moon here symbolises the fact that Hollande's support relies more heavily on the poor and socially excluded?

Mars is out of sect, peregrine, and occidental of the sun. However, it has powerful accidental dignity in the 10th place by sign division. Lord 4 ( Jupiter) is angular by whole sign and sign division. It is also in sect. However, it is occidental of the Sun and under the beams. The North node is in the 1st house while the south node is in the 7th house. This favours the challenger. Neptune conjuncts the cusp of the 4th house which appears another negative indicating disorganization and confusion in the incumbent campaign of Sarkozy.

However I do feel using such a 'contest' approach is less logical for a close of poll chart as the contest is effectively over. I will therefore examine this kind of chart using the more traditional approach to Aries ingress charts.

Aries Ingress Approach

Using the Aries Ingress approach to delineation on the close of poll chart the result is somewhat different. Now the Virgo MC symbolises the incumbent while Pisces symbolizes the challenger. Mercury is located in the 6th house in Aries. This cadent placement is not good but this house is at least in a whole sign relationship with the MC. As noted earlier Mercury is not in orb of any other planets. Mars is located in the 10th house. Here it is out of sect, peregrine, and occidental of the sun. However, it has powerful accidental dignity in the 10th place by sign division.

Neptune on the IC could indicate the fiscally liberal nature of the socialists as they have a clear plan to increase taxation on the rich. Many economists though warn these plans are unrealistic in the current economic climate. The domicile ruler of Pisces which is Jupiter is in the 7th house. This angular placement is makes this planet more active. However, Jupiter is combust the Sun.

As so often in charts we see contradictory influences. The Aries ingress chart seems to favour Sarkozy. In contrast the opening of poll chart using the Castle Besigement approach seems to favour Hollande. The close of poll chart seems less clear cut to me using either method of delineation. However, I think using the castle besiegement method probably favours the challenger too. Using the Aries ingress approach to the close of poll chart I think the chart is quite hard to judge conclusively. Lord 10 is placed in the 6th while Lord 4 is combust the Sun. I note though that Lord 1 falls in the 10th house. The ASC is another chart significator of the public will. The placement of Mars in the 10th here seems to give the nod to Sarkozy. Its a very really contradictory chart though. Perhaps this indicates a very close result and or some controversy over the election process.

Any views on these charts? I am not putting up this delineation definitive but the opening gambit on the utility of these kind of charts. Do you favour opening or close of poll charts? How do you delineate them? Are Aries ingress charts reliable for political contests? Do you think the charts should be delineated differently? If so how?

Mark
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james_m



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Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi mark,

i guess i wasn't paying attention and didn't see your post on the french election until now.. i was using the france chart sept 21 1792 330pm paris and trying to get a feel of it in some way.. i mostly got transit mars squaring onto natal moon putting the public in more of an ugly and aggressive mood which would favour a change.. the other big transit to the chart is the transit of saturn square onto the ascendant moving towards the midheaven eventually.. someone gave me a time of 0:10am for francois hollande - aug 12 1954 rouen france.. i also have a chart for sarkozy of 28 january 55 10pm paris france.

i made a 2 posts on another site.. the first was in response to someone posting sarkozys chart which i already had.. the 2nd one was after someone gave me hollandes birth time in a private message.. this is how i am trying to figure out a winner.. at this point i think sarkozy is going to lose on the may 6 2nd run too, but i will try to comment on these charts before that date with my astro reasoning as to why...

post 1

it is an interesting time in french politics! i have a chart for france - 21 sept 1792 3:30pm... the opposition between jupiter/neptune conjunction opposite to saturn is being highlighted somewhat by transit of saturn to neptune at this time.. saturn to neptune can give a sense of disappointment and it sounds as though that is what the public is feeling towards sarkozy at this time.. the chart you have provided for sarkozy has some nice connections to the french chart.. francois hollande is born 1/2 year before sarkozy, so the same jupiter/uranus conjunction lands on the descendant for france chart from both these candidates.. i don't have a time for hollande although i asked around for it without success.. on the basis of the chart for france along with what i mentioned above, t mars has just gone direct squaring onto the moon for the next few days here which again re-enforces the negative mood of the public at this time which could lend itself to a switch up in the first run off.. i am not following it too closely as i am not french, but i think there is another one to go later as wel and this would just be round 1..

just trying to get the answer off sarkozys chart is possible.. it is interesting in that the neptune in frances chart that i was mentioning is at the same degree in sarkozys chart, so he is a good fit for the neptunian energies which seem to have a connection to politics as i have seen.. that is an interesting tie in, in itself to be born 1 full cycle from the birth of france, and hollande also shares this, although his neptune is 5 degrees earlier at 23 libra... april 22nd has the mercury/uranus conjunction right on sarkozys moon as well.. i am leaning towards hollande pulling off an upset of sorts, but i am not fully committed to it and haven't studied this a huge lot..

post 2

i don't like the way hollandes chart lines up with the french chart i mentioned above.. another astro observation i neglected to mention was t saturn is presently squaring the french ascendant at 25 capricorn and not right conjunct on neptune at 28 libra as i had sort of mentioned earlier. i was mixing the 2.. this idea of an austerity vibe seems to fit with this transit of saturn and i wonder how the issue of taxing the rich and spending as opposed to cutting back fits in the picture? the saturn t would imply cutting back.. it seems to me from what little i read sarkozy is interested more in cutting, correct? that might be due the strong mars in his chart, lol.. saturn connects more closely to frances midheaven using sarkozy's chart as compared to hollandes where it conjoins france's jupiter.. in this sense the saturn jupiter close connection is interesting politically speaking as this duo was always connected to the political cycle.. i think sarkozy is a better fit for the french people using just the french chart that i mentioned earlier, but i don't exclude the possibility of an upset here given the serious - saturn t square ascendant, and short term foul mood- mars square moon - that is happening at present.

the transiting nodal axis on hollandes ascendant axis is interesting here as well as i was talking about this cross over on another thread in the vedic section of this site. solar arc directions for hollande highlight a few movements involving the midheaven axis - sa mid opp natal venus in the 5th which is about 1 degree out and would definitely be considered positive here.. sa uranus 135 midheaven which can bring some sudden change in one's position too which seems to help support this 12:10am time.. thanks again for sharing the time for hollande.
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daz madrigal



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Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I made a prediction in 2011 (astro.com) that Sarkozy would lose..its extremely tight but I'm sticking with it.

Here is the Full Moon chart for polling day, #Plu#squ#Ura are tight on the angles so I'm assuming a change of Govt.

Also #Sun ruler of 6th (workers) is conjunct #Jup in 1st..I'm assuming from this that the working classes are largely triumphant in getting rid of Sarkozy.





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yuzuru



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Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2012 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see little or no value in the so called "castle besiegement". The only reasoning I often hear is that one side has advantage and has to be defeated. Well, in every chart that there is a "king" to be distroned, this is true, without the need of a castle.

In a horary of Will the King be detroned, as in boxing, we assume that the king has advantage, we don´t need to use the fourth house to know that...

That said, just looking for the ingress chart, we see that things are not good for sarkozy. I usually look at others charts, but without the time, I think just by the ingress that he will lose.
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geo



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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark first of all I’d like to thank you for this post. You made many points clear concerning elections and at a time that I was anxious to learn more about it due to the forthcoming Greek elections (but I’ll make a different post about that after I study a little bit more). You also introduced me to that simple and clear text by Bernadette Brady and Bonatti’s method. Really fascinating.

Based on yuzuru's comment on castle besiegement, what about delineating the open-polls-chart as an open field battle?

Challenger (Hollande)
1st RULER = Mercury 25ari00
Moon’s last aspect =Sun 16tau06
Mercury-mars = mutual reception

Incumbent (Sarkozy)
7th RULER = Jupiter 21tau26
Moon’s next aspect = Jupiter 21tau26
Jupiter-mars = mutual reception(?) by detriment

Both Sarkozy’s and Hollande’s significators are in bad state, being in no dignity and in 12H.
What will perhaps make the difference in Hollande’s favor is that angular mars, in mutual reception with Holande’s significator and in mutual ‘dislike’ state with Sarkozy’s signif.
Could it be left wing leader Melenchon and his already statement against voting Sarcozy? (Mars in virgo, natural signif. of working classes)

BTW, I checked this method for previous french pres.elections (2007) and it seems it does work!

Quote:

That said, just looking for the ingress chart, we see that things are not good for sarkozy. I usually look at others charts, but without the time, I think just by the ingress that he will lose.


Yuzuru, could you please explain based on what you assume that the aries ingress favors Sarkozy’s opposition?


Georgia
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james_m



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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i am not familiar with this castle besiegement approach, but then i have not read that much of bonati, or any of dykes other then the rule book..

mark you state "Lord 4 ( Jupiter) is angular by whole sign and sign division. It is also in sect. However, it is occidental of the Sun and under the beams."
using that chart if you are going whole sign, saturn is the lord of the 4th in the 12th in libra, retrograde and in sect.. thanks for doing this post as it has stimulated some conversation and i could learn something.
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Mark
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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

James

I was hoping to take this thread in a rather different direction and avoid the predictable discussion of natal charts. At least right away. However, if you want to take a different tack its your decision. We are at least dealing with AA data in both cases.

Can I would just request though that in future you avoid just cutting and pasting your forum posts from other websites. Apart from anything else we lose the context of those comments. If you want to highlight your comments on another website thread just give us the link. I also think it would have helped if you had posted up the natal charts you are discussing.

James_M wrote:
Quote:
I was using the france chart sept 21 1792 330pm paris


Very interesting. I admit I have never really studied the issue of a French national chart much. I have found this link to this astrologers blog citing this chart.

http://judecowell.wordpress.com/france-sep-21-1792-ns/

Nicholas Campion states:
Quote:
The first French Republic was proclaimed over three years later at a session of the National Assembly on September 21st 1792, this date being subsequently known as day 1 of Year 1 of the Republic, initiating a series of French dominated republics across Europe. The proclamation was the third decree of the day , and passed shortly before the session broke up at 4.00pm LMT. An estimate based on length of reports and speeches points to 3.30pm, as the approximate time of the proclamation , which came into effect immediately. Book of World Horoscopes, p119, Nicholas Campion.



James_M wrote:
Quote:
mark you state "Lord 4 ( Jupiter) is angular by whole sign and sign division. It is also in sect. However, it is occidental of the Sun and under the beams." using that chart if you are going whole sign, saturn is the lord of the 4th in the 12th in libra, retrograde and in sect.


Thanks for pointing that mistake out James. Your quite right Saturn is the 4th house ruler by WS here not Jupiter.

Mark
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james_m



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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
James

I was hoping to take this thread in a rather different direction and avoid the predictable discussion of natal charts. At least right away. However, if you want to take a different tack its your decision. We are at least dealing with AA data in both cases.

Can I would just request though that in future you avoid just cutting and pasting your forum posts from other websites. Apart from anything else we lose the context of those comments. If you want to highlight your comments on another website thread just give us the link. I also think it would have helped if you had posted up the natal charts you are discussing.


Mark[/quote]

hi mark.. no problemo... don't want to discuss their natal charts? that is fine.. as for the c and p from another forum post, it was just my scrambled off the top of my head observations and not all that organized and slated for book publication anyway, so yes i can accommodate your 2nd request too!

that link to jude cowells blog article has some astro errors in the commentary, but the chart is the same.. if someone is into mundane astrology they need to acquire nic campions book of world horoscopes.. nic gives all sorts of details and footnotes to go with the many charts contained in his book.. i know of no other book like it for this kind of thing..
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Mark
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Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Daz Madrigal wrote:
Quote:
I made a prediction in 2011 (astro.com) that Sarkozy would lose..its extremely tight but I'm sticking with it.

Here is the Full Moon chart for polling day, #Plu#squ#Ura are tight on the angles so I'm assuming a change of Govt.

Also #Sun ruler of 6th (workers) is conjunct #Jup in 1st..I'm assuming from this that the working classes are largely triumphant in getting rid of Sarkozy.


Thanks Greg. I like your approach of looking at the pre-lunation chart. With a full Moon just before opening of polls this chart demands our attention! In fact I think that is something worth doing prior to any election. I am impressed you stuck your neck out on a prediction in 2011. It hasn’t really been on my radar for that long. I would go along with your judgement. I would also point out all 4 angles of the chart are cardinal which is a clear indication of imminent change.

Yuzuru wrote:
Quote:
I see little or no value in the so called "castle besiegement". The only reasoning I often hear is that one side has advantage and has to be defeated. Well, in every chart that there is a "king" to be distroned, this is true, without the need of a castle.

In a horary of Will the King be detroned, as in boxing, we assume that the king has advantage, we don´t need to use the fourth house to know that...


Glad to hear from you again. Its been a while. Clearly no one can accuse you of fence sitting! Its worth recapping that the castle besiegement approach was originally used by Bonatti for war charts. Bernadette Brady and Lee Lehman were the first astrologers to suggest this method could be used for sports competitions where one participant had a ‘home’ or incumbent advantage.

I am not aware of this method or Bonatti’s open battle method being discussed in mundane astrology much before so I thought I would use this thread as an opportunity to encourage a discussion of this issue.

Theoretically, the castle besiegement approach does have some logic. I don’t agree with you when you state:

Quote:
The only reasoning I often hear is that one side has advantage and has to be defeated. Well, in every chart that there is a "king" to be distroned, this is true, without the need of a castle.


The idea is surely that one side is the incumbent and has a certain advantage as the office holder. This is certainly true of US and French Presidents who generally get re-elected to two terms in office. Its different from a competition where both people enter fresh with no previous ‘baggage’.

However, these are purely theoretical arguments. I have a number of practical problems with this approach.

1 Using an approach involving Lord 1 and Lord 4 inevitably leads to the same planet ruling both houses by WS if we have a Gemini or Sagittarius rising chart. Even in quadrant houses this is likely to occur as you move towards the equator. This makes practical delineation very difficult.

2 There are other problems too. I have noticed practical difficulties with this approach if used for elections in northern Europe. For example British general elections open polls at 7.00am. Although UK elections are not fixed term May is often a favoured month. Using say Placidus houses this means UK opening of Poll charts ( located for London) often have Gemini rising with Leo on the 4th house cusp. Hence UK general election opening of Poll charts can have the incumbent's dispositor (The Sun!) in the 12th house! This poor placement is simply not reflected in many election results.

Overall, I think this is an argument in favour using the ASC/DESC or MC/IC axis in preference to this approach. In these approaches we are guaranteed different planets signifying the different competitors.

Yuzuru wrote:
Quote:
hat said, just looking for the ingress chart, we see that things are not good for sarkozy. I usually look at others charts, but without the time, I think just by the ingress that he will lose.


Hollande and the Socialists are symbolised by Mercury in Aries which is peregrine, combust and retrograde. Sarkozy is Jupiter which is peregrine too in the 2nd by Placidus/3rd WS. The Moon is applying to an opposition of Mars ( the dispositor of Mercury) and then sextiles Jupiter.

As Geo already asked could explain your logic here Yuzuru?


Geo wrote:
Quote:
BTW, I checked this method for previous french pres.elections (2007) and it seems it does work!


Its certainly worth experimenting and keeping an open mind. However, I think we require a much wider sample of charts than this to reach a definitive view. I am currently looking at the charts for all the opening and closing poll charts for UK general elections since 1945. I intend to post up my results at a later point.

I should point out another method which I think is worth considering:

Triplicity rulers of the MC-A method proposed by the astrologer Steven Birchfield for the last UK general election. Steven is a recognised authority on Hellenistic and Arab/Persian astrology. Steven expressed some dissatisfaction with the Aries ingress as an accurate predictor of election results. In this method we look at the main triplicity rulers of the MC (Dorothean) and judge them by sign placement, house, aspects, receptions etc. We need to make a judgement on which planet best signifies each candidate or party. The logic here is that in democratic elections all parties are scrambling for public support and there is no built in advantage to one over the other in that respect. Its really the opposite logic of the castle besiegement approach. Steven certainly used this method very effectively in the last UK election to attribute triplicity rulers to the 3 main UK political parties. I suppose the main difficulty with this approach is that there is no firm rules which planet should be assigned to which candidate/party. Depending on your outlook that is either a strength or weakness of this approach. Its can be a bit tricky if you have say a Jupiterian candidate for conservative party one would generally assign to Saturn.

Mark
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daz madrigal



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Posted: Tue May 01, 2012 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I found this chart elsewhere as I can't claim to have come across a 'Solar Lunar Return chart' before and quite frankly I've never seen one used in practice either here or elsewhere. Its from a very interesting blog I discovered whilst searching for precise birthdata on Francois Hollande. The writer goes into rather a large amount of detail - in contrast to my approach! The Sun exalted and eminently elevated closely applying to MC provides a chart powerfully pointing to a Francois Hollande victory.

Fortunately we both reach the same conclusion. Lala Happy




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yuzuru



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Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 6:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The idea is surely that one side is the incumbent and has a certain advantage as the office holder. This is certainly true of US and French Presidents who generally get re-elected to two terms in office. Its different from a competition where both people enter fresh with no previous ‘baggage’.


Hi, let me try again... BB and LL say that, just because the holder has an advantage, he should be placed on the fourth. LL even has some strange delineations of horary based on this concept (giving city hall to the fourth house, instead of the traditional 10th of government). The fourth house is the house of several things, but NOT the house fo those who have field advantage :-)
The reason that Bonatti used the fouth in castle besiegement was because it was a Castle! It was a piece of land, and the land will be taken or not. The rest are only the personal points of view of BB and LL.
Every time we take a chart seeing a fight between lords of 10th and 4th, or 1st (client) and 10th, by definition, the lord of 10th is the king, so it has advantage, no need to recur to some strange "castle besiegement" theory that, in fact, was created for a very different scenario. There are several other field advantages, for instance, the army that has higher ground, or comes early into the field, etc, and none of those advantages qualifies as a "Castle".

Quote:
Hollande and the Socialists are symbolised by Mercury in Aries which is peregrine, combust and retrograde. Sarkozy is Jupiter which is peregrine too in the 2nd by Placidus/3rd WS. The Moon is applying to an opposition of Mars ( the dispositor of Mercury) and then sextiles Jupiter.

As Geo already asked could explain your logic here Yuzuru?


Sorry.
Mercury is with an exalted sun, and with fortuna. Usually contacts with fortuna will give a good result.
The dispositor of jupiter is separating from him, and is going to cadency. The moon doesn´t see the sun.

These are all signs of defeat in mundane charts.

In the SR of Sarkozy, I saw (if I remember well) Jupiter in the 10th being squared by the sun, exaltation lord of MC, and natural ruler of kings.
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Mark
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Posted: Mon May 14, 2012 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Yuzuru,

Thanks for elaborating your argument vs Bernadette Brady & Lee Lehman's use of the castle besiegement technique. You make a good case against their approach I think. As I pointed out earlier in this thread the technique has some fundamental problems if applied to political contest charts anyway.

Quote:
Sorry.
Mercury is with an exalted sun, and with fortuna. Usually contacts with fortuna will give a good result. The dispositor of jupiter is separating from him, and is going to cadency. The moon doesn´t see the sun.

These are all signs of defeat in mundane charts.


There is no dispute your delineation got the right result here. Although to be fair pundits were predicting the loss of Sarkozy for months. The real reason I created this thread was not to predict the outcome (which seemed very likely to be defeat for Sarkozy) but rather to see the process of how people got to that prediction. I decided to demonstrate techniques which seemed to go against the likely outcome. As always the holy grail is a replicatable method that produces consistent and accurate results.

Frankly, I have difficulties entirely accepting your delineation on a traditional basis. Oddly you seem to be suggesting Mercury acquires the power of the exalted Sun by its conjunction. However, no medieval or renaissance astrologer I have read would seem to consider this Mercury as if it was cazimi or in the heart of the Sun here. Its doesn't even meet the more generous defintion of being 'synodical' with the Sun found in the Greek and Persian astrologers. This is a combust Mercury or to put it in modern terms a bust planet! Traditional sources always give a negative delineation for ingress charts with dispositors like this. For example, looking at Lord 10 William Ramesey suggests that if the dispositor is combust the Sun the ruler will fall from power in that year.

To make things worse Mercury is both peregrine and Rx so it is applying to combustion and separating from Fortuna. It also disposits the SN. You point out the separation of Jupiter from its dispositor Venus. However, the dispositor of Mercury(Mars) is even less connected as it is in aversion to Mercury.

Maybe I have misunderstood your logic somewhere but your delineation of mercury here seems to turn traditional ideas on their head.

I note your points about the position of Fortuna or the dispositors of the dispositors. However, surely the condition of the dispositors of H 10 and H4 is fundamental to any traditional delineation?

Is your point that the Sun=the natural significator of the King/Ruler so that the conjunction is positive for L4 despite its peregrine, combust and Rx state? Confused

I think I follow your point that the Moon in aversion to the sun is an indicator against the existing ruler/President.

Still rather than doing cartwheels to make the Aries Ingess 'work' at all cost I think it might be more realistic to reconsider whether the traditional delineation approach is really fit for purpose in predicting elections.

I am coming round to the view of Steven Birchfield that the traditional delineation method for ingress charts really isn't necessarily that reliable as a prediction tool for political elections. Birchfield suggested that (unlike in a monarchy) no party in a democracy owns the government in an election. Hence, they are all competing for power equally. Birchfield suggested using the triplicity rulers of the MC.

Triplicity rulers of Fire:

Sun=day, Jupiter=night, Saturn=participating.

For example, Here the socialist Hollande seems to fit the exalted, Mars ruled Sun while Sarkozy could be seen as Saturn. This seems to more clearly reflect the outcome than a traditional delineation which assigns Jupiter to Sarkozy and a combust Rx Mercury to Hollande. Fortuna is in the domicile of the Sun. Both the Sun and Saturn have dispositors which are in aversion to them. Saturn is Rx and in the 8th house by WSH and quadrant.

On the other hand its not all plain sailing here...Saturn is in antiscion to the Moon. Confused Also the Moon's next aspect is an opposition to the dispositor of the Sun. Plus the moon is in aversion to the Sun.

Mark
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geo



Joined: 07 Oct 2011
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Location: Athens, Greece

Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
Birchfield suggested that (unlike in a monarchy) no party in a democracy owns the government in an election. Hence, they are all competing for power equally. Birchfield suggested using the triplicity rulers of the MC.

Triplicity rulers of Fire:

Sun=day, Jupiter=night, Saturn=participating.

For example, Here the socialist Hollande seems to fit the exalted, Mars ruled Sun while Sarkozy could be seen as Saturn.


1) Should the MC triplicity rulers be used for the ingress or the election's day chart?
2) The ingress chart is a nocturnal one. How come that you chose Sun (=day ruler)+ Saturn as indicators for the two candidates? Why not Jup + Sat?

I mean, there is always the danger that we might try too hard to make the chart "speak" in a certain way, isn't there?

regards,
Georgia
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Mark
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Posted: Wed May 16, 2012 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Geo wrote:
Quote:
1) Should the MC triplicity rulers be used for the ingress or the election's day chart?


Steven proposed and delineated the Aries ingress for 2010 using this method. However, it could also be applied to any contest chart. I have not tried it for sports astrology as I dont have that much interest in the topic.

Quote:
2) The ingress chart is a nocturnal one. How come that you chose Sun (=day ruler)+ Saturn as indicators for the two candidates? Why not Jup + Sat?


Quite simple. I totally messed up. Embarassed

Your quite right I should have gone for Jupiter and Saturn.

Quote:
I mean, there is always the danger that we might try too hard to make the chart "speak" in a certain way, isn't there?


Isn't that true in many areas of astrology? For example trying to make a horary fit the result we want or a sports result fit our chosen team? Its true political bias can influence delineations at times. A good example was my own delineation of the Aries ingress for the UK in 2010. I saw a coalition as highly likely but I didn't really contemplate the possibility of the Conservative party being the ones to lead the coalition. I think that can be a pitfall for many astrologers doing work on their domestic scene.

Still, if we cannot make charts 'speak'' in some way why do astrology?

Mark
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geo



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Posted: Thu May 17, 2012 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

Isn't that true in many areas of astrology? For example trying to make a horary fit the result we want or a sports result fit our chosen team? Its true political bias can influence delineations at times.


I am soon about to post data at the thread next door about the new GR elections, and I'm not sure I'll manage to avoid mixing wishful thinking with astrology.. Confused

so any detached, cold blood help will be really appreciated!
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