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Here is the the inauguration chart for 2013. As we can all see the Moon is just below the ascendant....
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One could argue there are three points favouring the incumbent here. One a Moon below the horizon according to Bob's research. Secondly, the Moon is conjunct the ASC. The moon is of course the natural significator of the people and in its sign of exaltation here. Bonatti had a system where the status quo was symbolized by the ASC and a change by the DESC. If we accept that logic the presence of Saturn on the 7th house cusp is also a negative indication for the Republican challenger. Thirdly, Lord 1 (Venus) is trining the ASC while Lord 7 (Mars) is square the Moon.

Another technique mentioned by by Bonatti is the so called Castle Besiegement assessment of a chart. This had been used by Bernadette Brady to assess sports competitions where there is a holder of a trophy and a challenger. We basically assess the dignity of the two rulers by essential and accidental dignity and their aspects.

In this type of chart the challenger (attacker) is Lord 1 while the incumbent (defender) is Lord 4. In this chart the challenger is symbolised by Venus in Capricorn. Venus has triplicity in a day chart. It is in the cadent 9th house. It is also in a partile trine to the ASC. Lord 4 is the Moon using quadrant houses here (Placidus). It is very strongly placed in Taurus as the Exalted ruler and Almuten on the ASC. It is also in a strong angular house associated with the public. It is though applying to a square of Lord 7 (Mars) Overall I would say this technique favours the incumbent here too.
Although its arguable this technique is more appropriate for the opening or closing of poll chart.

Still as others have pointed out this is a troubling chart. The Moon is of course applying to conjunct the South Node. Also Mars is square the Nodes. The Moon is in an applying dexter square to Mars. With Saturn on the 7th too this look like either a possible military action or war breaking out during the next Presidency. I think Stellarium noticed this earlier in the thread. Of course we really need more charts to be certain. I am just looking at this chart in isolation.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

17
With Saturn on the 7th too this look like either a possible military action or war breaking out during the next Presidency.
I would think Mars in the 7th would be more indicative of war than Saturn. Saturn is the planet of destruction and it is arguable that the destruction is more likely to occur through decay.

Morin has a few charts with Mars in the 7th as a clear indicator of war, and one of the few European astrologers to accurately predict the outbreak of WWII in 1939 did so with Mars in the 7th of the Aries ingress.

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Tom wrote:
I would think Mars in the 7th would be more indicative of war than Saturn.
I agree that would be the classic indication. Actually, we have an excellent example of this in the recent inauguration of George W Bush in 2001. Note Saturn is in the 1st too.
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Still, in practical terms Saturn on an angle on its own has occured prior to a war in inauguration charts. For example in the third inauguration of Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) in January 1941 we see Saturn on the ASC. Mars is in the 8th house here. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour was of course in Dec 1941.
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Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

19
Tom wrote:
Morin has a few charts with Mars in the 7th as a clear indicator of war, and one of the few European astrologers to accurately predict the outbreak of WWII in 1939 did so with Mars in the 7th of the Aries ingress.
Hi Tom,

Actually that is not correct. Mars is not angular in any of the Aries ingress charts for 1939 for London, Paris or Berlin. It actually falls in the 6th house. Thats still fits well as it is the traditional house of enemies in Greek and Indian astrology.

Both the Aries ingress charts for London and Paris have the Aries Moon (which is Lord 12, peregrine, and combust the Sun) in partile conjuction with the MC. The Moon is of course in a sign disposited by an exalted Mars in Capricorn in its joy in the 6th (house of enemies). The Moon is especially close to the ASC in the London chart. The fixed sign Leo rises in all these charts making Saturn Lord 7. Saturn is in fall in Aries in the 1939 ingress charts and powerfully placed in the 10th quadrant house. Again Mars is the dispositor. The London chart has Pluto very close to the ASC. The chart located for Berlin has Saturn in Aries closely conjunct the MC. This fits well the warlike 'fallen' motivations of the Hitler and the Nazis. Mars and Saturn receive each other in their sign of domicile rulership (Mars in Capricorn/Saturn in Aries). The Moon is separating from a square to Mars but is out of traditional orb of any other planet in the ingress charts. This makes Moon effectively void of course even though it is early in the sign. The Sun (Lord 1) is in a partile square to Mars. So there are numerous indications of a strong Mars emphasis in the charts even though it is not itself angular.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

20
For grins I ran the 1937 inauguration chart (first one held on Jan 20) and in that one Mars is on the 7th cusp, although the US did not enter WWII until Dec 1941, and the Lend Lease program was not signed into law until March 1941.

Then I started to think about this a bit. Scorpio is always on the DSC on Jan 20 right around 13 degrees, so in order for Mars to have significance it would almost always have to be at about 9 Scorpio to early Sagittarius. Nothing times wars this well. Morin used the Aries Ingress where almost anything can happen to the house cusps. In this chart then, Saturn might be a better indicator but we have the same problem. Saturn would have to be in Scorpio or early Sagittarius to be in the 7th house. So this one goes out the window.

Saturn angular is a bit different and in inauguration charts might be indicative of war, or some kind of destruction, but we're limited to Saturn in four signs. So I'm leaning away from inauguration charts again.

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Mark

I was wrong about Mars in the 7th, but I thought a short quote from the article and the chart he used might prove to be of interest. Sorry about the mix up. I should know by now not to trust my memory.


http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/23 ... s1939.jpg/]
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The entry of the Sun into Aries occurs at Paris the 21st of March at 12:29; that which puts the MC at 8 Aries and the ASC at 0 degrees of Leo. Mars ruler of the primordial point (0 Aries -tc) is exalted in Capricorn ; it's ruler Saturn, is situated in Aries, that is to say by mutual reception by sign rulership with Mars. Such a case was foreseen by Morin (4th paragraph of Chapter 3, Section II). [Thus] Saturn and Mars share the rulership of the primordial point since Mars is ruler of the MC, the following angle (see note below), to which Saturn is conjoined, it is obvious that the ruler of the year is divided between the two malefics. Moreover, that would be very inauspicious (sic) for Saturn is in exile and the ruler of the 7th house of WAR (caps in the original) and Mars is in the sixth in exact square with the Sun.
There is a lot more, but I don't have the time at the moment to keep typing it out.

NOTE: Re: "the following angle:" I was a bit confused by this in other places in AG until I realized what Morin and in this case Heiroz meant. He means the angle that Saturn will next conjunct in diurnal motion or the angle that Saturn follows. I didn't take it that way and it confused the hell out of me at first. Maybe it that's just me.

But to Mark's point that Saturn needs to be included this makes more sense. Both malefics are involved with 0 Aries, Saturn is angular and is disposited by an exalted Mars which Saturn rules by domicile as well as ruling the 7th house of war. So apparently we need the "cooperation" of both malefics to predict war and the 7th has to be involved although not necessarily occupied.

Back to the drawing board.

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Tom wrote:
For grins I ran the 1937 inauguration chart (first one held on Jan 20) and in that one Mars is on the 7th cusp, although the US did not enter WWII until Dec 1941, and the Lend Lease program was not signed into law until March 1941.
Yes I dont think we can be simplistic about this. In ingress charts the 7th house is not just about enemies. Its more generally about foreign affairs and a nation's relations with other countries both friendly or hostile in political and economic terms.

What was the main theme during FDR's second Presidency? A country surrounded by a world at war in Europe, Asia and Africa. Moreover the USA found itself in increasing conflict with both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

23
Hi Tom,

What is the source of your article. Is this from the French astrologer Jean Hieroz?
So apparently we need the "cooperation" of both malefics to predict war and the 7th has to be involved although not necessarily occupied.
Well I agree that an ingress chart is certainly preferable to an inauguration chart if we are assessing the probability of war. The fact the angles repeat the same 4 signs does make this a more restricted process. With an ingress chart any combination can come together. Still, it is notable that both Saturn and Mars are angular (whole sign) in the 2013 inauguration chart. Saturn directly conjuncts the 7th house cusp. They receive each other in their respective domicile rulerships and are on each others antiscion points. Mars squares the Nodes and the Moon.

Incidentally I found this old thread below where you posted a very interesting section on assessing ingress charts using Morin's methods. You cover a lot of ground on how Jean Hieroz successfully predicted WWII based on the 1939 Aries ingress chart for Paris using Morin's techniques in Astrologia Gallica. Quite a contrast from English astrologers like Charles Carter who failed to predict war. Rather than go back to a proper understanding of ingress charts Carter led the way in abandoning ingress charts altogether and was a major influence in the move towards national charts with the publication of his book Political Astrology in 1951.

http://www.skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewt ... 0b99a775d1

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

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What is the source of your article. Is this from the French astrologer Jean Hieroz?
My source is Astrologia Gallica Book 25 translated by James Holden. He translated the article from Heiroz and published it in an appendix at the back of the book. Heiroz claimed he was asked to submit a prediction by the management off L' Avenir du Plateau Central for a 1938 article. They requested a prediction because of known military movements at that time. The question was simply, would there be a war? He further claims his prediction was rejected on the grounds that it was "likely to provoke panic." They asked him to revise his prediction, which he of course refused to do. He disassociated himself from that publication and they then made amends and published his article in the November 1938 edition (if I read this correctly) of Constitutions du Ciel.

He gives full credit for the prediction to Morin thusly:

All of its merit, however, must go back to the Master whose methods I utilize, and not to myself, his humble disciple.
This may be the only time you ever see Morin's name associated with, however tenuously, humility.