Probability and Prognostication

1
Probability and Prognostication

While I had this on my mind quite a while ago, in the last weeks during the starry nights in the nature of Southern France, I?ve been thinking more on this and worked something out.

Quiet some years ago, when I looked very often at my transits I sometimes looked to years far in the future to see when all hard aspect transits of Saturn and the three moderns would come to an end. Hard aspect transits are often related to difficult periods. Leafing through the ephemeris, I found out that they would never end. Within not too much time there would always be another transit to follow the previous one.

I then calculated the average chance that one would have a hard aspect transit of these planets. This is how I did it. The ratios of the repeating cycles of the planets are added: 1/29.5 (Saturn) + 1/84 (Uranus) + 1/165 (Neptune) + 1/248 (Pluto). The result is ca. 0.056 or about 1/18. This means that if one natal planet is used and only the conjunction, once in 18 years there will be a transit. In points to be passed by transits mainly the fastest natal planets and the angles are used, so MC, Asc, Sun, Moon, Mercury, Venus and Mars. This gives 7 points and thus 1/2.5 years. Divide this by 4 (conjunction, opposition and two squares) and you get 1/0.63 years or 1.6 per year or 8 transits in 5 years. With the idea in mind that a transit can work for many months and often (more than) a year because of the retrograde motion, this means that on average there is always some transit going on and during our whole life this will be so. Although the natal chart already may have some conjunctions, oppositions and squares in it even if the number of points is then reduced to 4 this still is once per year.

Not only transits have this problem, secondary progressions and primary directions have this problem too. With secondary progressions usually Sun, Moon, Mercury and Mars are used as progressed points. On a long term average Mercury and Venus move at the same speed as the Sun. So for these three we get 1/365*3 = 3/365 Mars moves in 1.88 years or in 687 days through the zodiac so adding 1/687+3/365= 0.00967 or once in 103 years. Divided by 4 (the hard aspects gives 26 and with the natal planets and angles involved you get 9 points (if you use only the classical planets). The result is 2.86 or about once in 3 years and I haven?t even mentioned the Moon or sextiles and trines which usually aren?t left out as with the transits. With the Moon (1/27.3) added the result is 0.046 or once in 22 years. Dividing by 4 and by 9 you get 1/0.6 or 1.5 per year again, and 3 with sextiles and trines involved. Here also counts that there may be some natal hard aspects but for progressions they need to be rather tight to fall within the same orb of progression. Solar arcs make all planets move with the same speed as the Sun and will give similar results as in directions.

In directions many use all planets directed to all planets and the two angles. Using the classical planets this means that 7*9=63 points are used and with 4 aspects this is 252. With the average motion of 360 years or 365 years for the planets in directions this means ca 1/0.7 or about 1.5 per year. And I haven?t even mentioned converse directions, modern planets, minor aspects, all which are often used in directions (the last two in modern astrology). This creates a large number of directions per year.

If you use all these possiblilities or even the different techniques indiscriminately and at the same time then it will be impossible not to find anything, and it?s like bombarding a mouse with a hundred grenades. There?s no doubt that many people feel very happy with this limitless number of possibilities but I don?t and I think one has to create some order in it to prevent the prognostication to become an arbitrary mess. I think there are four main approaches for this problem: accumulation, selection, ranking and stipulating conditions.

Accumulation
When there are so many chances per year to have a ?hit? with a certain technique then this will not occur at regular (short) time intervals as in the average. I think this approach is mostly used in directions with many planets aspects etc. In a certain month one will have 5 directions and in the next half year only several isolated ones. The approach of accumulation will see the most value in the periods where there are many directions at the same time. A problem can be that the isolated ones normally could be considered very valuable, for example if in a half year there?s a directed conjunct Sun to MC, would this mean less than the accumulation of a sextile Uranus to Pluto, a semi-sextile Mars to Venus and semi-square Jupiter to Neptune in one month? To some, several of these last planets and minor aspects have no meaning so a choice is made as in the following two methods.

Selection
Here a choice is made in which we omit some planets and/or aspects. Classical astrologers for example (usually) don?t use the modern planets and minor aspects. However there still may be too many points left leading to confusion. So some use only the conjunctions in planet to planet directions, or only the angles. In progressions some use only Sun and/or Moon. Problem here is that there must be a well founded reason or theory to omit something. Using only the classic planets and major aspects seems fair enough. But how about using only the conjunction while it is usual in the natal chart? Instead of this perhaps too drastic method one might choose the next one.

Ranking
This approach doesn?t exclude entirely but gives more value to the one than to the others. So a conjunction is stronger than a sextile. And in transits the slowest planets are usually seen as the most effective, a transiting Venus is not expected to work for but a few days, while a Saturn transit takes several months. A problem in this approach, being milder than previous one, may be rather not of a technical nature but of a personal one. For example one might rank a sextile Jupiter to Saturn direction as one of the lowest and least effective but if it turns out that in that period something very significant happens this might be attributed (in hindsight) to this position while it is contradictory to the concept of ranking. Similarly one might place high value in a transit when it suits, while one usually mainly looks at progressions as major significators of events.

Stipulation conditions
If we stipulate something as a condition then something is seen as valuable only on certain conditions. The most significant condition is that of the natal chart. That what is 'promised' in the natal chart is not likely to be altered in a very strong way by a hit of a prediction technique. Under this approach the use of Solar and Lunar return charts can be listed; only if something in the return chart indicates a certain issue, then it will be reflected in a transit later that year (or month). Without that, the transit will be less or hardly meaningful. This can be seen as a kind of ranking but usually of different techniques. However, within one technique this approach can also be used. Just think of the concept that according to some authors a transit by a slow planet needs to be ?triggered? by the Moon or another fast/personal planet. This gives some fine tuning of an event just like with the return techniques or with the following method. Another approach is using progressions and or directions as a method signifying periods under which transits work and are ?coloured? by a certain direction/progression at the time. Still in modern astrology of mid 20th century, transits weren?t expected to be so effective if there?s no secondary progression going on, and vice versa a progression won?t be that active if there?s no transit to ?work it out?. However, what is to be done with a transit which seems to do a lot while there?s nothing significant in the return chart or if there?s no direction/progression at the time. Then we get something like in the Kepler quote about the magistrates and the people http://www.skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewt ... 61d846365b , Sat Oct 17, 2009 12:26 pm. When the cat?s away the mice will play they say so it needs some studying to what this ?revolutionary upheaval? can mean. It?s possible that this will be just for a short while and that soon it will be 'business as usual', like a heavy rainfall in the desert brings life for a few days and a few weeks later the heat and drought wipes out every memory of it.

I think these are the main approaches. While some may have a preference for one, I think that most people combine several of these or all. Even if you drastically select, then there are still periods in which accumulations occur. It?s very logical that these periods will get special attention.

My personal approach
Although I change my ideas from time to time, an approach I currently like to use is a combination of mainly selection and stipulating conditions. The techniques I look at are primary directions, secondary progressions and transits. With the meaning of circumstances, decisions and emotions respectively.

Since the (most used) formula of secondary progressions is a solar day for a solar year, I believe that the main, if not the only, thing to use is the Sun. The angles too ?fit? in the formula because of the diurnal rotation in it, but these signify days and probably are just like transits of the Sun. I therefore focus at the Sun and occasionally look at the progressed Moon mainly when in aspect with the progressed Sun and especially with transits. Progressed Mercury hasn?t really much value I believe and I don?t use solar arcs. The relation of primary directions with secondary directions (although I realise that this is a rather modern ?scientification? of the technique) is that of the angles, so I don?t use the planets but only the moving angles towards the planet (and their aspects) in the natal chart. (In the ecliptical reference frame this is. I also experiment with the equatorial reference frame in which the concepts may differ but this is a rather different discussion.)

At highest I place the natal chart. Then the primary directions, followed by the secondary progressions and transits at the last place.

In primary directions, with the angles as generators of periods indicated by the nature of natal planets involved I get a general overview in bird?s-eye view. Here you may see slow changes of circumstances. Although this word may not be rightly chosen, because it depends also on the time and period of the country where one is born (i.e. the hi?rarchy of mundane vs. natal astrology), I don?t know a better one.

Within these periods secondary progressions of the Sun may indicate decisions we make or have to make from time to time. Finally we get transits, these are usually the periods/hits we actually ?feel? in our moods. Although they can be very convincing as the only technique and the iron logic of actual position compared with natal position is still very attractive to me, I think it is not advisable to focus on all these mood changes. It makes you somewhat instable, if not superstitious. On the other side, transits give body to the former two, working out what is in them which on their turn works out what is in the natal.

While this is a top-down vision, I wonder whether if sometimes a bottom-up case might be possible. Like one has a strong moment of a transit and under emotional pressure might make a wrong decision which in order alters or give way to changed circumstances. Probably it?s not all set in stone and everyone will have different methods to bring some structure in predictions. Perhaps I will change my views in the future returning to transits for example. In that case I still would try to get some selecting/ranking and stipulation conditions elements in it. For example using only or mainly the classical planets and conjunctions in order to let the conjunctions indicate starting moments of some longer periods in time as with primary directions with other planets having cycles within these cycles.

It looks like the whole purpose can be seen as explaining both longer periods and events. Or like I read from an Indian astrologer who compared the dasha systems (comparable with classic astrology time lord systems) with the stage in a play and the transits with the actors.

I wonder if others see this in similar ways or if there are approaches to be added.

3
The difficulty is how to deal with the 'empty spots' in which an event occur's while there's no (significant) astrological configuration or where there's no event at a very significant configuration.

Finding a balance between flexibility of intepretation and the temptation to considerably alter the criteria.

It takes more than a progression or a direction.

4
The natal chart and its progressions and directions can be said to have two applicable conditions. First, the number and variety of possible combinational ?contacts? can be overwhelming as an interpretive format. Second, anyone born near the same time and near the same location (say, within 50 miles) are likely to share many of the same chart conditions. This leads us to the implied questions: How do we separate the individual from ?others? and how do we find the ?uniqueness? in all of these astrological factors such that we can find meaning for the individual and their experiences of the day or period?

While all of the statistics noted are interesting, I would suggest that such a view is overly limiting. The natal chart as a set of timing-and-locational angles and planet-positions relative to those angles and to the zodiac measuring reference of choice only existed at one time and place ---- it no longer exists except as some form of imprint within us, the individual.

If we were to represent our life with a 12 inch wooden school rule, our natal chart would be the thin first segment line at the left-end of the ruler. Applying a scale of 1/8 of an inch equals one year of life, the ruler as a whole would represent a possible 96 years of life. Progressions or directions, as charts for our 42nd birthday (as an example) would represent 1/64th of an inch, an increment that is too fine to be placed on a wooden school ruler. We might need a precision machinist?s scale (ruler) and an eye-piece to easily see 1/64th of an inch which is about 15 one-thousandths of an inch. Our actual 42 years of life would cover some 5 ? inches on the ruler of life. The point to this is that we have a lot of living experience in those many years which, in sum, modifies the manner in which we exhibit or avoid the expression of the planets in our natal imprint.

Further, we have to consider the relative span of time which progressions and directions actually represent (a few weeks or a month or so) and the ratio of the scale of time that we project them upon ( many decades of time). Just how "accurate" can this scaling and projection of an imprint that lives within us, a biological imprint?, be in terms of timing? Our biological clocks might change. Other events in life may affect our sense of life and passing of time. Who knows.

It seems obvious to me that the use of progressions and directions alone is far from being an adequate astrological tool. Other discriminating tools must be applied that can screen out the chaff and focus our attention on what is working within us from without. It is unlikely that there is one answer to this puzzle.

One of the answers which I apply in my work is a set of factors which builds upon the basic factors of the astrological natal chart. I use a combination of two cycles ? the Solar movement, and the MC's rate of advance using Cyril Fagan's Progressed Solar Return Cycle method. Using these cycles, one links the natal chart, the solar return chart and any daily intermin chart (based on the solar return) into a unified set of cyclic charts. With cyclic charts, one uses only the angles of the charts (and the planets found there) for interpretive purposes.

I don't want to get into the pro's and con's of this particular method at this time and in this thread. But, this approach accomplishes several objectives which any other astrological approach might also seek to achieve.
FIRST, the fundamentals of the natal chart are used to build the other components of the interpretive method. These include the Sun and its movement, the MC as a timing and locational factor which is used within a cycle that occurs between any two successive solar returns.
SECOND, the method utilizes discriminating tools. In this case, since ?cyclic? charts are being used, we apply the nodes of the cycle (the moving chart angles) to any natal-imprint planets and any transiting planets that conjoin those ever-moving cyclic angles. This approach provides a time-based focus on some planets and natal angles and pushes many other factors into a less area of influence.

Any method may be useful to us as astrologers if it relates to the natal chart imprint, the ever-unfolding changes in the sky around us, and a focus (and discrimination factors) that is built into a cohesive set of practices. This requires us, individually, to be sensitive and sensible about the combination of tools we use and the manner in which we use them. IN SUMMARY, the results we get, the consistency of those results, and the relative ease-of-use of our methods in providing the client with useful answers in a timely manner is how we judge our tools and ourselves. Dave
If you have options, exercise them all.

5
Hi all

To me this problem suggests that the use of time-lords or chronocrators is the answer here.
All the modern and (neo)traditional methods mentioned are 'event-oriented' in the sense that it is thought something happens when 'factor A bumps factor B' in the chart. This is thought te be the starting point of a period characterised by the astrologicals involved.
Other methods are also event-based, like the solar return which prompts a chart used for the whole year. Again a chart of an event that is used to try to get to the characterisation of a longer period of time.

Timelordprocedures on the orther hand assign stretches of time to a specific ruler, who takes care of (often) a specific topic during the times of his period. There are general ones of these (like the decennials) and specific topical ones (profections come to mind). Even primary directions where used in this manner, as a procedure for finding timelords.
If memory serves me correctly, about 11 of these methods where discovered in the hellenistic texts. Zodiacal releasign from Fortune and Spirit among them.

With these methods, based on the natal chart, there is never any period of time NOT under the rule of one of the 7 planets. Details and qualification of these periodes are determined by the condition of these planets in the natal chart. They are often used in tandem with other methods, like transits, to get more into the details of a period.
Hermes

Re: It takes more than a progression or a direction.

7
dadsnook wrote: If we were to represent our life with a 12 inch wooden school rule, (...) The point to this is that we have a lot of living experience in those many years which, in sum, modifies the manner in which we exhibit or avoid the expression of the planets in our natal imprint.
I sometimes also look at it in a similar way, or rather like a pillar with the rotations made visible like a spiral. This sounds a bit vague but just think of the rotating red & white poles at the old time barber shops. This also shows that the basis always is the natal chart and every moment of the direction, transit etc lays in this basis, instead of seeing the directions, transits as coming out of nowhere occurring to us.
Hermes wrote:Timelordprocedures on the orther hand assign stretches of time to a specific ruler, who takes care of (often) a specific topic during the times of his period.
Although I don't use timelords (I find it difficult to get the rationale of them), this period determining is the great benefit of them.

I try to use primary directions and in a lesser extent progressions (and maybe even transits) in a similar way. My former attempts of pinpointing events with directions were a dissapointment and made me to reject them a while ago until others argued that they needn't to be exactly related to an event. The idea that a direction has some time orb is more attractive. (Athough a new problem that rises is that it makes the choice of a direction method or key more difficult) Perhaps this orb can stretch out for several years and so be a good alternative for timelord systems.

In 'Making Time out of Space: An Introduction to Planetary Periods' by Bruce Scofield, Robert Hand is said to believe that primary directions developed out of timelord systems. Here I quote footnote 9 of the article:
Scofield's footnote 9 wrote:(9) In his introduction to Book IV of Vettius Valens, Rob Hand suggests that these systems were the roots of later systems, including primary directions. He sees the development of predictive systems in astrology in the following sequence:

1. Integral time-units by themselves only indirectly based on spatial units. (Planetary Periods and Dasas)

2. Integral time-units directly related to space-units. (Directions)

3. Integral time units related to other time units. (Progressions).

Rob's view of primary directions is that they represent a transitional point in this development. Apparently, they were originally used was to define a unique set of planetary periods for each chart that was based on the rotation of the earth. For example, if the Midheaven were directed to Mars, it would begin a planetary period ruled by Mars that would last until the next direction became effective. In this article, I've taken the position, more for purposes of organization than as a result of intense archaeoastrological research, that primaries relate one time unit (the day) to 360 years and that they are the first of the series of predictive systems falling under #3 above.
I wonder if people in posession of this book or of other sources can affirm this.

Something similar can be concluded from Mark Riley's - 'Ptolemy and his colleagues' http://www.csus.edu/indiv/r/rileymt/PDF ... etical.pdf in ?Numerical methods, at about p. 244/245, it is illustrated that Ptolemy's contemporaries used whole sign rising times as periods and arithmetical methods. Therefore Ptolemy's way of directions perhaps can be seen as a 'scientification' of the older systems.

Although this scientification appeals more to me than the timelord systems, I think that primary directions also can be used to indicate periods unless there has been no direction for some 15 or 20 years, making the time and space orb a bit too wide.

Re: It takes more than a progression or a direction.

8
It is certainly the case that primary directions as conceived by Ptolemy are a chronocrator ('time-lord') system, to be combined with profections and transits. Here is an extract from Robbins's translation of the Tetrabiblos IV.10:
We shall apply the prorogation [= direction] from the horoscope [= ascendant] to events relating to the body and to journeys above; that from the Lot of Fortune to matters of property; that from the moon to affections of the soul and to marriage; that from the sun to dignities and glory; that from the mid heaven to the other details of the conduct of life, such as actions, friendships, and the begetting of children.
[...]
In the first place, we must give the rulership of the times in each prorogation to the star that is actually upon the prorogatory degree or in aspect to it, or, if this condition does not exist, to the one that most nearly precedes, until we come to another which is in aspect with the next following degree in the order of the signs; then to this as far as the next following, and so on; and the planets which govern the terms are to be given a part of the rulership.
[...]
We shall discover the general chronocrators, then, in the manner described, and the annual chronocrators by setting out from each of the prorogatory places, in the order of the signs, the number of years from birth, one year to each sign, and taking the ruler of the last sign.

Re: It takes more than a progression or a direction.

9
Martin Gansten wrote:It is certainly the case that primary directions as conceived by Ptolemy are a chronocrator ('time-lord') system, to be combined with profections and transits. Here is an extract from Robbins's translation of the Tetrabiblos IV.10:
I was waiting someone would mention :)

Traditional method is based on a hierarchy of techniques.

Profections cannot say anything if we don't use solar returns and primary directions and in the same way all the authors advise us to use general chronocrators before calculating directions.

For example Albumasar explains it very well in the first chapter of the book about Solar Revolutions.

Lastly transits are used for fine-tuning of these charts (I use especially Moon's transits)

margherita
Traditional astrology at
http://heavenastrolabe.wordpress.com

10
With Ptolemy's use of MC, Asc, Fortune, Sun and Moon, directed to 7 planets using 8 aspects you still get 280 hits which is averagely 1.3 per year. I think this is quite short for determining periods. The average period of Indian astrology Dasa's (Vimshottari) is 13 1/3 year. Moreover with the use of several prorogators you get several periods at the same time. So I think that the use of this method in practice would lead to moments rather than periods. Especially when later astrologers extended the number to more planets and converse. Not necessarily wrong but difficult to deal with them as periods.

Later traditional astrologers like Lilly didn't really seem to consider them as periods. Lilly's lists of directions are calculated to the exact day and there are many of them per year. This would be too much in my opinion, I would feel more comfortable with an aspect hit of about once in the 5 years. However in Tetr. III-10 for the length of life Ptolemy describes the method for determining the relevant points of direction and therefore making a selection. Perhaps he did or meant to do similar with the directions as in Book IV-10.

11
Traditional method is based on a hierarchy of techniques.
I fully accept.

The method, which gives me the best results:

1) Primary directions across terms. They were directed to the 5(7) aphetic places.They gave what is affected (distributor). It describes a period of several years.
2) Primary directions 5 aphetic to the major aspects of the planet (participant) gave the nature of the events. It describes a period of several years.
3) Profection of the Asc (discreed) ? lord of year - in the combination from the nativity and the solar return. Theme of year.
4) Monthly profection in the combination from solar return. Theme of monthly.
5) Daily profection in the combination from lunar return. Theme of ~2 day.
6) Primary directions planet in the solar return (specification in a few days).
7) Primary directions planets in the lunar return (specification in a few hours).
Control transits of planets.

Missed a primary process of selection...

12
In my opinion, you need some way to determine what to use our of the myriad of measurements, point, sensitive points, Trans-neptunians, asteroids, etc, ad infinitum.

While afflictions and dignities have been available for 600 years, another method was developed between 1920 and 1950. The Church of Light in California(USA), had hundreds of students around the world then. Through an extensive personal questionnaire and more than 12,000 horoscopes, they develeoped over the 30 years, a very mathematically complicated ranking system for planets, houses, signs, and individual aspects on any given day and time and place. This is called the Cosmodyne or Astrodyne system.

It was not used much by anyone prior to 1986 or so because it took a good 6-12 hours of calculations to get the appropriate numbers. But with the advent of personal computers it became accessible first using an add-on with Haloran's AstrolDeluxe, and more recently with Solar Fire 7.

Using it, I am able in any chart at all, to determine the priorities of energy at that particularly moment. I can get the power and the harmony of the energies of the cosmos for planets, signs, houses, and aspects. This allows other things to be plugged in.

I have found it to be incredibly accurate, even to the point of using it to increase my chances at lottery games by choosing a more lucky time.

I can't imagine doing astrology without it.

Z
Zarathu Astrology: http://zarathuastrology.zohosites.com/