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Strategies - Scoreline patents and trixies
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Andrew Bevan



Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 4676
Location: Oslo, Norway

Posted: Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:38 am    Post subject: Strategies - Scoreline patents and trixies Reply with quote

I've become intrigued with a betting strategy called a 'patent' and that is explained by Ficina in the December thread and the possibilities this provides within scoreline prediction:

Ficina wrote:
The patent is a combination of 7 bets - 3 singles, 3 doubles and 1 treble. So even if you only get one or two results correct out of the three, you still win something. Depending on the odds, two results should produce a profit; one result, probably not but at least you get some kind of return.

Unibet also offer something called a 'trixie', which is a combination of 4 bets - 3 doubles and 1 treble. I'm way off from being able to predict scorelines, but I do not mind a gamble as a part of a game and means of tuning my understanding and predictive abilities. I am actually discovering that if I can determine in which way certain games will blow or not blow, my betting office actually provides a wide range of options for placing a bet and still leaving the end result relatively open.

The chance of predicting scorelines correctly are relatively slender, but therefore the bet also attracts a high price. If we as astrologers have a opinion or idea in which way a match is going to turn, and say for discussions sake, that we were right in 70% of the cases - then this still narrows down on scoreline options. If put in a 'patent' consisting of 3 matches, then even 1 correct scoreline will provide a profitt. And if you hit luck and get all three right - BONANZA! For the sake of an example, here is a 'trixie' for boxing day:

1) Leicester - Sheffied U, Scoreline: 1-2 Odds: 11,5:1
2) Sheffield W - Newcastle, Scoreline:1-3 Odds: 16:1
3) Middlesbrough - Scunthorpe, Scoreline: 1-0 Odds: 7:1

My astrological leanings for Match 1) With the chart not being radical and Saturn L7 being on the IC, that the match will either go to the underdog/guest or end a draw. In a scoreline bet I don't mind giving favour to Sheffield U who may succeed in pocketing a winning goal.

In Match 2) Newcastle have been pretty invincible of late, which makes you wonder when those guys will stop up and take a break, but which isn't likely to be mid-xmas in view of the recent enthusiasm from their supporters and attendance record put on their home ground last week. The chart is radical, the Moon is L4 and trine Fortuna, the Sun (luminary) is trine the ascendant. Sheffield might score. Newcastle won't want to muck-up and will put in a 2-goal clearing if they have the opportunity.

Match 3) added for non-astrological reasons at present, to make up the example. Middlesbrough have really disappointed of late. I really thought they would have been closer the top. Against Scunthorpe they may be able to capture a winning goal at home - but the result doesn't have to be impressive.

By putting a total of 2 on the trixie this means:
50p on 1)+2)= 184:1 potential return 96,-
50p on 1)+3)= 80,5:1 potential return 40,25
50p on 2)+3)= 112:1 potential return 56,-
50p on 1)+2)+3) = 1288:1 potential return 644,-

So if the unlikely should happen and you get the trixie, the return on 2 is 836,25. To come break-even in your bettings you would have to hit a trixie 836:2=418 times. If you get 2 out of 3 right, then you still are whoopying around and causing a din in the neighbourhood. Have I got my maths right? Would anyone like to comment on the odds and either likelihood or unlikelihood of getting 3 scorelines corrects - or anything on strategies?
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Ficina
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Posted: Fri Dec 25, 2009 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very tempting figures! Even if you put a total of only 1 on the trixie, thereby halving the returns you've quoted, it would still be a great profit - so long as you get at least two correct. And as those of us who played the Guardian game last season well know - getting just one scoreline correct is quite an achievement!

2-1 and 1-0 are the most common scorelines so it's useful to try and work out whether the losing side will score or not, as you have done in your examples. The next most common is 2-0. At least, that was the case in the Premiership last season. For draws, 0-0 was more common than 1-1.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Fri Dec 25, 2009 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you for some input on statistics, Ficina.

Is 2-1 a more frequent scoreline than 2-0? Yes, 0-0 is the most common draw result. Is 0-1 the most common away-win scoreline? It seems as if teams are scoring more goals than they used to? Three goals in a match, or even two, seemed to be a luxury in the 'good old days'.

With the trixie it is the multiplication factor and slight reduction of risk that makes it interesting. Maybe posting some combinations here will show whether it pays off of not?

We might end up by dividing teams or different parts of the league into different categories - with some teams that flourish up and score more goals under certain conditions. But not with all teams following the same system of labeling or performance.

Link: http://www.soccerstats.com/scoring.asp?league=england
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Andrew Bevan



Joined: 20 Dec 2005
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Posted: Fri Dec 25, 2009 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two more scorelines that I am checking out on Boxingday:
Cardiff - Plymouth 2-0 Odds: 7,25:1
B'ham - Chelsea 1-4 Odds: 28:1

I hope I am wrong about the B'ham game. (Since this is the place of my origination). In this game POF is opposite Jupiter, so I think the favourites get it. And maybe Chelsea show exeptional performance due to their success being indicated by Jupiter and Jupiter is exalted in Cancer.

'Shall' is a Jupiter-word isn't it? Jupiter exalted in Cancer: We Shall-Sea? Smile
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Ficina
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Posted: Fri Dec 25, 2009 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Is 2-1 a more frequent scoreline than 2-0?

In the case of underdog wins, yes. For home fave wins it's about equal. For away fave wins 2-0 is more common.

Quote:
Is 0-1 the most common away-win scoreline?

For away fave wins, yes, with 0-2 a close second. For away underdog wins, 1-2 is most common, with 0-1 and 0-2 about equal.

This is with reference to the Premier League for the 2008/09 season only, so I'm not sure how useful it is. It might vary between seasons and the Championship may be different. Also I seem to remember that it was mainly the top teams, particularly Chelsea and ManU, who were responsible for the 2-0 wins, so I guess that should be taken into consideration too.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Sat Dec 26, 2009 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been reading through the figures at Soccerstats. In a simplified fashion, if the match ends with a home win there is almost a 50% chance of the result being either 2-1 or 1-0. The actual figures suggest the scorline will be 2-1 in about 25% of the cases and 1-0 in 20%.

If the game ends a draw, my guess is that it is 0-0 in about 50% of all cases, 1-1 in 25% of the cases and 2-2 in 15% of those games ending in a draw.

If the match ends with an away win, then the scoreline is 0-1 in 30% of games, 0-2 in 20% of games and 1-2 in 15% of games. That leaves 30% to cover all other combinations.

I am sure these statestics could be sorted out into favourites and underdogs. It might be an unlikely event that the underdog wins with two goals away, and with the favourite playing away and the chart suggests a draw, perhaps the score-draws are more frequent in their appearance.

Ficina, you are on to a good thing when you try to detect whether a team will score or not. This requires some sort of testimony through angularity or other virtue.
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Andrew Bevan



Joined: 20 Dec 2005
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Location: Oslo, Norway

Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2009 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is a trixie for Monday, 28 December. Three games - the chart details are discussed under the Football predictions thread.

1) Stockport - Leeds
With the chart lacking radicality and the LHr + L7 being on the MC I think Leeds will slaughter Stockport. 0-3 at 9,5:1 is not unlikely, but even 0-4 at 17:1 or 0-5 at 34:1 might be considered.

2) Tottenham - WestHam
The draw could upset many's expectations. 1-1 attracts a price of 8,25:1, while 2-2 is worth 17:1.

3) Newcastle - Derby
Again, the draw could turn up and surprise. 1-1 is priced at 8,25:1. 2-2 attracts an odds of 19:1.

So here are various possibilities:
1) 0-5 at 34:1
2) 2-2 at 17:1
3) 1-1 at 8,25:1
Total odds 4758,5

1)+2)= 578
1)+3)=280,5
2)+3)=140,25

Anyone with any feedback/ ideas or opinions?
-----------------------------------------------------
I've given this some thought and one option is a spread with putting
1 on the trixie 0-5, 2-2 and 1-1, and then 1 on the trixie 0-4, 2-2, 2-2. A third 1 can be wasted on the scorelines 1-4, 1-1 and 1-1.
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Ficina
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Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've done a 'Lucky 15' on the four 3pm Premiership games this afternoon, as discussed on the predictions thread. Blackburn, Chelsea, Everton to win and Stoke to draw. This bet is like a Patent but it covers four games rather than three, so 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and a fourfold - 15 in total.

Fingers crossed!
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Congtratulations! You got two singles and a double with Chelsea 2-1 and Everton 2-0. Smile
It looked pretty hopeless until into the 70th minute when both Chelsea and Everton got busy. What was the return like in percent?

I came home and dry with a simple trixie including Leeds, Nottingham F and Norwich. Leeds and Nottingham F won. Norwich postponed, so I collect on the double.

Newcastle have yet to play Derby. Cool
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Ficina
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Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You got two singles and a double with Chelsea 2-1 and Everton 2-0.

Yeah, negative profit today unfortunately but never mind - some kind of return is better than no return at all Smile
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stockport-Leeds 2-4

I most comment, because the price for this scoreline was about 50:1.
My wildest scoreline guesses were 1-4 priced at 22:1 and 0-5 at 34:1.
That just says something about what was at stake here. Out of the 3 games I was playing, I got the correct result - although not scoreline -
in 2 of 3 matches.

Getting closer. Cool
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GB



Joined: 03 Oct 2008
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Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2009 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andrew Bevan wrote:
I've been reading through the figures at Soccerstats. In a simplified fashion, if the match ends with a home win there is almost a 50% chance of the result being either 2-1 or 1-0. The actual figures suggest the scorline will be 2-1 in about 25% of the cases and 1-0 in 20%.

If the game ends a draw, my guess is that it is 0-0 in about 50% of all cases, 1-1 in 25% of the cases and 2-2 in 15% of those games ending in a draw.

If the match ends with an away win, then the scoreline is 0-1 in 30% of games, 0-2 in 20% of games and 1-2 in 15% of games. That leaves 30% to cover all other combinations.

I am sure these statestics could be sorted out into favourites and underdogs.


I have analysed 1516 matches from the Premier League from 20 Aug 2005 to 20 Dec 2009 (I miss out the first couple of weeks at the start of each season and the last three or four weeks at the end of the season.)

Home wins 729 times = 48.1%
Away wins 410 times = 27%
Draws occured 377 times = 24.9%

If we split the homes and aways by favourite we get:

Home fav wins 624 = 85.6% of home wins
Home underdog wins 105 = 14.4% of home wins
Notice how infrequent home underdog wins are.

Away fav wins 199 = 48.5% of away wins
Away under wins 211 = 51.5% of away wins
So, with away wins the fav and under win about as often as each other!

Now I split by score line:

Home Fav
1 - 0: 144 = 23.1% of home fav wins
2 - 0: 122 = 19.5% of home fav wins
2 - 1: 108 = 17.3% of home fav wins
These three scorelines account for 60% of home fav wins

Home Under:
1 - 0: 32 = 30.5% of home under wins
2 - 0: 19 = 18.1% of home under wins
2 - 1: 32 = 30.5% of home under wins
These three scorelines account for 79% of home under wins. However, the 2-0 score for a home underdog win occured in just 19 matches out of the 1516 analysed = 1.3% of all matches, so don't bet on a home under win by 2-0 too often Smile

The situation for away wins is slightly different.

Away Fav
0 - 1: 47 = 23.6% of away fav wins
0 - 2: 34 = 17.1% of away fav wins
1 - 2: 38 = 19.1% of away fav wins
These three scorelines account for 59.8% of away fav wins

Away Under:
0 - 1: 76 = 36% of away under wins
0 - 2: 28 = 13.3% of away under wins
1 - 2: 51 = 24.2% of away under wins
These three scorelines account for 73.5% of away under wins. As we might expect, away underdogs do not win by very large margins most of the time.

Hope this is of some interest - sorry for the long post Smile
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Ficina
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Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting, GB. Many thanks for posting. Have you noticed that the percentages vary from season to season? As I said, I only have records for the 2008/09 season and while most of my figures agree with yours, there are a few that don't. What surprised me most about last season was that overall only 53% of the games were won by the favourites. I think this must be below average.

Do you have some kind of software that calculates all this stuff or do you do it all manually? It must be very painstaking work.
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GB



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Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your figure of 53% favourites winning is close to the long term average. In my collection of 1516 matches, the favs won 54.3% of the time, with underdogs winning 19.6 and the rest (24.8%) draws. The remaining 1.3% are wins (ie not draws) where there was no favourite (the home and away odds within 0.1 of each other).

I have all the results in a spreadsheet, so the analysis is reasonably easy Very Happy
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2009 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Strategies
In view of todays games between Bolton - Hull and Villa - Liverpool I have set up combinations with Bolton winning at home in their match in combination with various scorelines in the Villa game.

In propotion
50 p on the 4-4 scoreline - total odds 508:1
75 p on the 3-3 scorline - total odds 92,5:1
1 on the 2-2 scoreline - total odds 26:1
75 p on the 1-1 scoreline - total odds 12:1

I think the likelyhood is greatest for a 2-2 or 3-3 scoreline.
But look here - I haven't been much successful on the scoreline yet. Tongue Out
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