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Football Predictions 1-17 December 2007
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Andrew Bevan



Joined: 20 Dec 2005
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Location: Oslo, Norway

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rome-ManU 1-1
Arsenal-Steaua Bucarest 2-1
Barcelona-VfB Stuttgart 3-1


Well, I didn't quite come through on the Rome-ManU match. My money was on ManU. But on the other hand, victory did not go to the favorites, Rome.

Both Arsenal and Barcelona were right, so that makes me about break-even.

Confused
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Ficina
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Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, of the four matches I looked at yesterday and today, I got two right and two wrong, hmm...

Andrew, bearing in mind what you said recently about 21 out of 24 games being won by the faves, I couldn't help noticing that 6 out of the 8 games tonight were won by the faves, and 4 out of 5 yesterday (the 6th having no clear fave). So from a betting point of view, backing all the faves would have produced a profit. I've always shied away from betting odds-on but, as you rightly pointed out, small amounts add up and the returns are actually quite impressive in percentage terms.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ficina, I tend to vary the size of my bets. Presently I am monitoring the results in 3 systems;

1) My own placements
2) The favourites
3) An alternative where bets only are placed where my opinion agrees with the favourites.

Alternative 1) is hanging behind at the moment because I tried a few long shots, but that does not mean my deductions have been entirely wrong. i.e. The favourite may have been playing at home. I went for the underdog and the match ended a draw.
Alternative 2) has done presently best with 3x
Alternative 3) has given 2x
This is taking into consideration of starting off with a kitty of 50.

An alternative 4) with a flat bet of 20 in every game would have given a 2x return.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the World Championship handball tournement for women, which is extremely exciting at the moment, there is a chart for this evenings combat that you really should take a look at. It really is a case for study.

http://www.astronor.com/071213Romania.gif

Romania-France, 19.30 GMT
Odds: 1,65 10,00 2,50

The PoS(n) casts a square through signs of long ascension to the Sun, so the favourites, Romania, seem to be in advantage. But then you notice that Saturn, lord of the 7th, casts his antiscia to the MC. And Mars is exactly square the antiscia of PoS(n).

France should win!
------------------------
Update!
24-24 It was a draw! Check the odds! Romania eventually won 34-31 after extra time but that has no importance for the bets. So I lost the stake, but how interesting!!

Saturn, Lord of 7th, casts his antiscia to the MC which is in the very degree of his fall. Prehaps that creates the stale-mate. The Moon in the 7th casts a quincunx to his dispositor which brings in the real outsider.
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Ficina
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Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2007 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Incredible odds for the draw in the handball Shocked I think draws are very difficult to predict.

Your results monitoring is really interesting. I suppose it's not all that surprising that alternative 2 has done best so far. Keep us posted on progress, you're doing some great work there Thumbs up
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do not have a lot of draws on record, Ficina, but last weeks match between Newcastle-Arsenal that ended 1-1 had PoS(n) trine Neptune through signs of short ascension. [The trine through s.a. collapses to a square and Neptune gets you nowhere]. I also have a case with PoS(n) square Neptune through signs of s.a. but here the aspect collapses to a sextile and the match ended in advantage to the favourites.

I do not like the look of this weekends matches. Most of Saturdays 15.00GMT matches have PoF opposite Neptune. The 17.15 match between Fulham and Newcastle has Saturn as L7 angular on the 4th, PoS(n) is square Mercury through signs of long ascension with Mercury detriment and combust. It is a right mix up.

I am not comfortable with predicting draws either. There is no decision. Sometimes a draw is reckoned a victory by the underdogs. Other times there is simply no champion.

Liverpool-ManU,
Dec 16, 13.30 GMT
PoF is quincunx Sun - which in my mind is the outside result and a draw.
Confused
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Ficina
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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The best bet this weekend looks like Ajax to win against PSV. Laurie mentioned that this game was coming up so I had a look at it. 16 Dec, 12.30 CET, Amsterdam. They are the two top clubs in the Eredivisie. Ajax are the faves at around 6/5. Mercury (L7) just inside 10th and Moon in 1st conj Asc.

Grand Slam Sunday in the EPL looks difficult. The home teams are marginal faves.

Quote:
Liverpool-ManU, Dec 16, 13.30 GMT
PoF is quincunx Sun - which in my mind is the outside result and a draw.

Yes, it could be a draw, although Venus (L1) in angular house might give Liverpool the edge.

Arsenal v Chelsea, 16 Dec, 4pm GMT
Jupiter (L7) in 7th, just past conj with Pluto which is conj Desc
Moon conj Uranus and opp PoF
Chelsea could have the edge here, but it depends on the possible Pluto effect. I can't see Arsenal winning so I'm hoping for a draw.

Quote:
The 17.15 match between Fulham and Newcastle has Saturn as L7 angular on the 4th, PoS(n) is square Mercury through signs of long ascension with Mercury detriment and combust.

Mercury is separating from PoF Neutral Not sure if Saturn conj 4th will be enough for Newcastle to win, so I'm going for a draw.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Ficina said:
it could be a draw, although Venus (L1) in angular house might give Liverpool the edge.


I think that will be more an issue when Venus reaches her propper terms.

I chose a game this evening instead
Wycombe Wanderers-Morecambe, 19.30 GMT
Odds: 1,90 3,25 3,70

PoS(n) 5LI18 square Mars through signs of long ascension.
I go for the favourites who are the home team.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If ALL matches cannot be predicted, I would expect that a systematic investigation would reveal which matches could be predicted, whether the winner is the favourites or the underdogs.

I hope we will reach those conditions which give an absolute answer and that we then will be able to determine when to put money on the table and when not, and as soon as that is decided - the rest is a piece of cake.

However, when the favourite wins at 1,2:1 this is equal to a 20% interest on money. If the underdog wins at 4:1 this is equal to 300% interest on money. If you want to back the favourite all the time at 1,2:1 then it will require 8 bets on the favourite to surpass one win on the underdog.

The trouble is that when you loose - you not only loose your potential profit but you also loose your stake. It appears that only on rare occasions the underdog rises to the occasion and takes the victory. It is therefore necessary to act wisely regarding risk and reward on every occasion money is put at stake. It might take 4 bets on the favourite to recapture the loss.
-----------------------

Exclamation In my 11 last stakes I have won 8 times. 3 times I have lost. In all those cases I lost, I had gone for the underdog. In two of those cases the match ended with a draw ! Exclamation
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Last edited by Andrew Bevan on Fri Dec 14, 2007 6:32 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Ficina
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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Wycombe Wanderers-Morecambe, 19.30 GMT
I go for the favourites who are the home team

I agree. The Moon's aspects bear this out. I might even stick my neck out and go for a scoreline of 2-1. The odds for this are 7/1.
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Ficina
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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
In all those cases I lost, I had gone for the underdog. In two of those cases the match ended with a draw !

It might be worth considering the Draw No Bet option in these cases. The odds for the underdog won't be as good of course, but at least if it's a draw you get your stake back.

Wycombe 2 Morecambe 0
How inconsiderate of Morecambe not to have scored Sick Serves me right for being greedy I suppose. I should've gone for the straight win.
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two games made me 45 today. Exciting day tomorrow as I have a small stake in a quadruplet (?) Four games linked together with a total odds of 7:1. But I also have a stake twice the size in a combination of two of the four games. It all handball - nothing lined up for soccer as yet!

Cool
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

West Bromich-Charton 12.45 GMT
Odds: 2,02 3,20 3,55

PoF 14GE13 square Uranus through signs of short ascension.
Mars, lord of the ascendant, is angular in the 4th.
This looks like a good home win!
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Andrew Bevan



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Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sundays top matches look interesting.
Liverpool-ManU, 13.30 GMT
Odds: 2,60 3,15 2,70
PoF 24CN04 quinkunx the Sun - a draw?

Arsenal-Chelsea, 16.00 GMT
Odds: 2,35 3,20 3,00
PoS(n) opposite Uranus, Moon - the underdogs?
The Chelsea underdogs, that is. An away victory.

This would mean both Arsenal, ManU & Chelsea would top the table with 37 points each!
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Ficina
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Posted: Sat Dec 15, 2007 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andrew, I think you are having a Pisces moment Wink We've already discussed the Liverpool game!

With Moon VOC, West Brom/Charlton could be a draw. The angular Mars might give West Brom the edge, especially as they are the home team, but the 4th house is so unreliable. I think I'll sit this one out.
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