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aquirata



Joined: 31 Mar 2006
Posts: 157
Location: Canada

Posted: Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bulletbobb wrote:
I'm in the process of checking his method using a large database I have. Maybe I'll get some insights.
Good luck with that. Would be interested to hear about your findings. I did start researching his method last year with EPL matches and found some of the rules questionable. Nevertheless, there is correlation between strong predictions and results, and there also seems to be an 'eminence effect', i.e. it works better on high-profile games.
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Bulletbobb



Joined: 04 Sep 2004
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Posted: Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps that was not well-phrased. What I meant to say is that the rules applying to the Moon are more complex than the other points. It's not a simple matter of 'the Moon always goes with the first house team', etc.
What to do if it rules the 1st or 7, or 4th or 10th? Does it rule one side or the other, or do we use it to rule the flow of events? In some cases he brings in the dispositor of the Moon to use when the Moon is otherwise engaged. On p.87 he says: "I am rarely confident in the judgement of one of these charts wneh Cancer either rises or sets: the dual role of the Moon causes confusion".

Regards,

Bob
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Bulletbobb



Joined: 04 Sep 2004
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Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter:

Which rules did you find questionable?
I am at present working on two sets of charts, both for American football.
One is for very high-scoring games, the other for very low-scoring games.
One would expect a dramatic difference between the two. Differences there may be, but dramatic they aren't.
Are you the Peter of Canada mentioned on the NZ racing cite?

Bob
Connecticut
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aquirata



Joined: 31 Mar 2006
Posts: 157
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Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob,

Just three from memory (without referring back to my notes):

1. That Moon contacting Fortuna means the buck stops there (i.e. ignore rest of aspects).
2. To look at in-sign aspects only (e.g. ignore conjunction between 29Ari and 1Tau)
3. To hold angles stationary (i.e. to reverse applying/separating aspects to angles).

In general, the more 'medieval' (irrational) the rule was the less it held up.

Not aware of the NZ racing site, so I'm probably not the same Peter. Smile
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Tom
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Posted: Tue Nov 13, 2007 2:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi,

I'm glad you're all enjoying the book. I haven't had a lot of time to delve into it yet but a few miscellaneous things from an American.

Baseball, the game like rounders (a game virtually unknown in the US) is not played on a gridiron. The "gridiron" reference is usually reserved for American football. Baseball is played on a "diamond" that is really a square tilted on its side. I agree predicting a score in a baseball game is probably well beyond astrology. The same is true for American football, although it might be possible to figure out the spread for an American football game, i.e. the difference between the winning and losing teams respective scores. So if Team A scores 24 points and Team B scores 18, the spread is 6 points. The spread is how the game is handicapped by odds makers.

The Moon in John's earlier works is simply advanced through the static chart. So if the flow of the game is considered to be 5 degrees and the Moon in the event chart is at 10 Cancer, then move it to 15 Cancer and see what happens along the way.

In other writings John has noted the "eminence factor," as well.

I've been fooling with the event charts for a few years and found the World Series to be nearly impossible to predict on a game by game basis. Sometimes the teams' stadiums are so geographically close that the only thing that changes between one night and the other is the Moon. This happened when the NY Mets played the NY Yankees in the World Series a few years back. Their respective parks are less than 10 miles apart - maybe less than five. The rising sign is the same and probably within a degree or so of the previous night's. The Moon moves significantly, nothing else. The nature of the event makes prediction tough.

The other part that makes it tough in the US is that The WS is so heavily promoted and reported upon that even casual baseball fans will form an opinion. It's tough to keep your own feelings and knowledge out of the prediction.

Great thread. Keep it up.

Tom
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Bulletbobb



Joined: 04 Sep 2004
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Location: California, USA

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First, for Peter: Thanks, I'll keep your three points in mind. With regards to #3, I don't think he reverses the applying/separating rule with regards to the angles, it just doesn't apply. He uses planets above or below the Asc, for example. Actually, he does this with several points: the nodes, antiscia, Fortuna, angles. He says explicitly that you hold antiscia still: planets apply to them. I assume this would also be true for mid-points, tho he doesn't mention them.

For Tom: I can't speak from experience about the WS you refer to, but I wonder what you were using for starting times? I timed all but one of the games for this years WS, and the actual starting times were very different from the nominal times given in some papers. Another factor is the ever-present question of who goes in the first house. In a WS with the Yankees I would be very careful of putting the Mets in the ist house, even when they were at home.

Quite a number of years ago I put together a collection of charts (about 50, as I recall) of situations where there were two games played in or near the same city at the same time. For example, the Jets and Giants were both at home and both played at 1pm. This is a rare situation, but it does happen on occasion. I'll have to see if I can find the list.

IMO, it is situations like this that need to be the focus of efforts to find a workable method. Basic astrological theory says that if you put up the chart for the start of a game you should be able to tell something about it (let's skip for the moment just what the something is). If your method doesn't work in that situation then I would be skeptical of it working in any other situation. The principal is the same. Restricting ourselves to Superbowls and WS games is great fun, I suppose, but my interest in all this is purely financial, and you'll never make much money if you limit yourself to a handful of games per year. You need to have a system that will enable you to look at a dozen or so games played at 1 pm on a Sunday and be confident that you can pick a few winners from the pack.

BTW, all I remember of those games was that the results were quite different. You might think that if the home team won by a landslide in the one game then the result should be the same in the other. No way, Jose!

Enough for now.

Regards,

Bob
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aquirata



Joined: 31 Mar 2006
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Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob,

1. John explicitly says in his AA articles that one should hold everything in a chart still and then move the planet in question (just like Tome has described). So for example, if Lord 1 has just set below the horizon, i.e. just moved inside the 6th house, it is clearly separating from the Desc in normal astrological parlance. However, John says that it is applying to the Desc because, if you hold the angles still, Lord 1 will eventually reach the 7th house cusp (provided it is direct in motion). The same is implied in his book by saying that 'planet on the cusp controls, inside the cusp is controlled'.

2. It is very educational to do what you have done, i.e. looking at very similar charts. I wouldn't expect to have, however, the same result for say a dozen games going off with the same chart. There are two reasons for this: (1) Astrology in my mind is statistical in nature (in other words, the stars only incline and do not pre-destine), and (2) the odds for the favourite will be different in each of those games. Naturally, a favourite at odds of 1/10 will have a much higher chance of winning than another one at 7/4, regardless of astrology. So it's quite acceptable to have some favourites lose even if the chart indicates otherwise.

3. As I have stated before, there is a definite eminence effect just like Ertel has found in the Gauquelin data. The higher the level of competition, the more descriptive the chart will be in general. This agrees with what John says in his book and articles. You don't have to restrict yourself to world championships though. The same effect is working at all levels, and so you could be successful by concentrating on top league games, for example. As the significance of the sporting event drops, so do astrological indications it seems.

4. To make money at betting using astrology, one doesn't have to be right all the time. It is sufficient to have an edge over the crowd because the rest is taken care of by the odds. For example, if you can achieve a 60% success rate for sides with even odds, you are ahead of the game by 20%, which is a significant edge.

At any rate, I'll be watching your experiment with interest.
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Tom
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Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bob:

Quote:
I can't speak from experience about the WS you refer to, but I wonder what you were using for starting times?


This is a problem, and I don't recall exactly what I did when the Yanks played the Mets. First off various news outlets give slightly different starting times. In a World Series it is common to introduce the players before the game, and this throws off the estimated times of the first pitch. What I usually do is take the most commonly stated time and add about 10 minutes. If this produces a chart that has very late degrees rising or very early degrees rising, I am concerned, but if it is in the middle of the sign I don't worry about it being different from the actual starting time.

The other problem is that I'm a Yankee fan and event charts are supposed to be used when there is no real emotional connection. That may have thrown me off.

The Super Bowl is the same thing. Kickoff times are estimated based on the estimates of how long the pre-game hoopla will take. I just do the best I can.

The Giants and Jets play their home games in the same stadium. When they play each other sometimes the Giants are home team and sometimes the Jets are. In that case, I'd give the favorite the first house and not worry about who is home team. If you were looking at basketball and the Knicks and Nets were both home, or in Hockey the Devils, Rangers, and Islanders were all home, this could be a problem as each game would start at the same time in most cases.

If your interest is financial, then try John's horary method. Will I make money betting on this game? That's the real question. I'm a sports fan and not much of a gambler so I get personally involved - a different outlook entirely.

Tom
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pipedreamer



Joined: 06 Aug 2007
Posts: 41
Location: England

Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Changing the subject to event charts for horseraces, I have never found a planet just inside a cadent house effective. However much one may apply closely to an angle, I have not found such a placed planet to signify a winner. On the contrary, I have innumerable planets so placed signifying losers. This study has included all types of races from sprints to staying chases. I would be interested to learn if anyone has arrived at similar or differing conclusions.
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aquirata



Joined: 31 Mar 2006
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Posted: Wed Nov 14, 2007 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting, Pipedreamer. Can you clarify 'just inside', 'apply closely' and 'signifying' with an example?
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Bulletbobb



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Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2007 4:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This answer is for Tom, since it doesn't seem possible to answer individual messages.

Approximate starting times aren't going to work well with Frawley's system, as you probably know from having read his book. His methods depend on very close orbs, so having a starting time off by 10 minutes could lead to a serious error. Solution? Avoid playoff games where the time is uncertain. Regular season games start within very narrow limits, especially football. I read, years ago, that there is actually a regulation in the NFL that the game will start in the second minute after the scheduled time. I timed several games after that and arrived at an average starting time of one minute and thirty seconds. Pretty good, no?

The horary betting method wouldn't work for extensive betting, I tried it once years ago. Maybe for a single bet on the superbowl, but for day in, day out: I think not.

Regards,

Bob
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Bulletbobb



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Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 1:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

These are comments for Peter.

1> I agree that cadent planets can be thought of as applying to the angles, but he also uses angular palnets, which by the same logic would be separating from the angles. I've forgotten what we're debating here, since he has many examples of both in his book. He is very clear that you hold antiscions and POF steady and apply to them. What I'd like to know is what he does with midpoints. By extension from the above I assume that for planetary midpoints (e.g., MA/JU) you would hold them steady and apply to them. But I wonder what would be the case with regards to a MP involving the Asc, for example? Same logic, now that I think about it: the POF is for all intents and purposes equivalent to a MP, and it involves the ASC, so I have to assume he would say hold all MPs steady and apply to them.

3> I don't have an AA articles, so I don't know about the emminence effect. I'm skeptical. For example: it should be possible to have, all starting at about the same time, the following: an NBA basketball game, high ranked college game, community college game, and high school games, all in the same metropolitan area. In that case the NBA game would be so much more emminent that the chart for the hs game would be worthless. Or prhaps I misunderstand the concept? Give me a practical, real-world example.
One reason I'm skeptical is that I just saw a post on Frawley's cite, #410, from a woman who apparently has done extensive sports betting, and isn't concerned with having charts of ordinary games to work with. Unfortunately, she didn't give any details of her method.

2> I agree.

4> I agree. If you can have 60% winners against the spread, with a good selection of games, you will make alot of money.

I'm about ready to post preliminary results of my first experiment. Verrrrry interesting.

Regards,

Bob
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Ficina
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Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Bob,

I know your post was addressed to Peter but I just wanted to make a couple of points.

See pp. 92 & 93 of John's book for the "eminence effect".

And a general point - John's message To the Reader at the beginning of his book where he says: "The core of this book is the system I have developed for judging the result of a sporting contest using a chart set for the start of the event. This works well, but there is room for improvement. My hope in writing this book is that someone will pick up this system and make the improvement. Onward!"

I'm looking forward to seeing the results of your experiment Smile
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Bulletbobb



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Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2007 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read that part when I got the book and then forgot about it. I've been minutely examining the other parts of his method, and, as I said, forgot those general observations.

My little experiment just received a setback. It involves some midpoints, and I just discovered that there is a serious error in the WinStar midpoint calculating module! Now I have to go back and check everything by hand!

Bummer,

Bob
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Coffee



Joined: 27 May 2007
Posts: 130

Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good book. Smile
Dunno why he has to keep bashing the young one in it. Shocked

Been trying out the horse method to some success. Mainly going for winners, had a strike rate of about 40%

It's good because I can combine it with my way to add that little bit extra, and it doesn't take very long to do.
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