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A review of Football Predictions !
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Gem



Joined: 19 Nov 2004
Posts: 954

Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you Ficina
It`s good have post match analysis to make sense of it all and to learn from them.

Quote:

1) All home teams were favourites and apart from Fulham they were odds on faves


There was also a Bolton/Chelsea match where the faves won.
So all in all the faves won except Liverpool. Now it`s a bit odd to ask this as there were a quite few indications for a draw but can anyone come up with any suggestion as to why only this match was a draw?
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Goca



Joined: 21 Dec 2006
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Location: Srbija

Posted: Tue Oct 09, 2007 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ficina, unfortunately I have no time to look all these charts, but what orbis do you allaw for aspect with antiscion?
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http://fensi88.livejournal.com/
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Ficina
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Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Probably about 4 or 5 degrees, Goca.
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Goca



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Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks.
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leeleelee



Joined: 29 Sep 2007
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Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ficina wrote:

1) All home teams were favourites and apart from Fulham they were odds on faves, meaning there needed to be very strong testimonies for the away team/underdog to get a draw, let alone win. Portsmouth had more of a chance since Fulham were only marginal faves.

5) Fulham v Portsmouth. The only one I got right! Moon in 7th sextile Mercury (L4), no longer prohibited by Saturn as the Moon was just 2' past it. No testimonies for Fulham who, as I said, were only very marginal faves so easier to beat.


Hi Ficina,

Fulham was the initial favorites, but odds fluctuated so much that 30 mins before and up to kick-off, Portsmouth became the favorites.

Something to think about.

And yes, I think you got it right for Arsenal's only goal victory against Sunderland. The game has almost similar chart to ManUtd's 4-0 win over Wigan. The only difference was that Moon Sextile Mars(L4) for Sunderland, which I missed out completely. Sad Since the Asian Handicapp Odds was Arsenal -2, I expected Arsenal to trounce Sunderland, but I was wrong.
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Ficina
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Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi leeleelee,

Quote:
Fulham was the initial favorites, but odds fluctuated so much that 30 mins before and up to kick-off, Portsmouth became the favorites.

Something to think about.


Definitely, yes, that's very interesting. Does this sort of thing happen very often do you know? I'd always thought that football odds were fixed until that Man Utd v Chelsea match, when ManU were initially marginal faves. Then came news of Mourinho's departure and the odds swung drastically in ManU's favour and they ended up odds on.
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leeleelee



Joined: 29 Sep 2007
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Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ficina wrote:
Does this sort of thing happen very often do you know? I'd always thought that football odds were fixed until that Man Utd v Chelsea match, when ManU were initially marginal faves. Then came news of Mourinho's departure and the odds swung drastically in ManU's favour and they ended up odds on.


It does happen frequently with games where both team could win it, as such late team news will change the odds on favorites.

Last season odds for Arsenal fluctuates a lot, punters were waiting to see if Henry will be playing. This season is Liverpool's turn, due to Rafa Benitez's tinkering.
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Ficina
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Time for another review I think. Has anyone come to any new conclusions?

I'm beginning to think that some of the testimonies that appeared to be working fairly consistently last season, are failing to produce the same results this season Confused It's still difficult to keep track of what works and what doesn't. Conflicting testimonies will always be a problem I think.

And is there a missing factor that we've yet to discover?
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Gem



Joined: 19 Nov 2004
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
beginning to think that some of the testimonies that appeared to be working fairly consistently last season, are failing to produce the same results this season

Particulary the Moon in the 10th!

I haven`t come to any new conclusions but as has been said before, I find one of the hardest things is to predict underdogs beating odds-on-faves. The latest example was the Bolton/ManU match. Using the colour method, Arsenal was also signified by Rx Mars and should have been beaten.

Quote:
is there a missing factor that we've yet to discover?

Can be a single factor or a multitude of factors...
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Ficina
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Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Particulary the Moon in the 10th!


Yes, and the Moon in 1st (Fulham v Blackburn yesterday).

Quote:
Using the colour method, Arsenal was also signified by Rx Mars and should have been beaten.


That had occurred to me also, although unlike ManU, Arsenal did have home advantage. Two other Mars (red) teams that lost were Sunderland and Middlesbrough - one away, one at home, both underdogs. So I'm not sure where that gets us, apart from financially ahead in betting terms. A bet on all those four Mars teams to lose would have produced a profit.

Quote:
Can be a single factor or a multitude of factors...


It's not easy, is it? Neutral
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