UK Conservative Party Leadership Contest 2022

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• Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:21 am

The first ballot for the Conservative party leadership produced the following result yesterday.

From the BBC News website:

Rishi Sunak got the most votes from Tory MPs in the first round, followed by Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss. Nadhim Zahawi and Jeremy Hunt were eliminated as both received the support of less than 30 MPS.

Penny Mordaunt has become the new favourite to win the contest, according to betting odds. She leads the field, followed by Mr Sunak and Ms Truss, with Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat behind them.

In addition Penny Mordaunt tops the latest YouGov poll of Conservative party members, winning the backing of 27% of the 879 members who took part, compared with 15% for Ms Badenoch, and 13% each for Mr Sunak and Ms Truss.

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 11:29 am

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:14 pm

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:33 pm

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 4:43 pm

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:47 pm

Lets start by looking at the charts of the remaining 5 candidates plus the charts for the opening of the contest and the announcement chart. I will put all the candidates charts into bi-wheels with these charts. Note: We do not possess timed natal data for any of the candidates so all charts are set for noon. I have no specific time for the annnouncement of the winner /next leader. However, judging by previous contests this is likely to be around noon. However, the specific angles of this chart should be treated with caution


Rishi Sunak

Sunak the former Chancellor has his Sun and and Mercury in Taurus. This combined with a Sun/Mercury trine to Saturn goes some way to explain the perception of him as the solid 'safe pair of hands''. However, adding to this mix Sunak has a feisty Moon in Aries. Morever, Uranus opposes both his Sun/Mercury conjunction. This rather belies the heavy earth focus in the chart with Sunak's Jupiter and Mars conjunct in Virgo. Sunaks's Sun is square the nodes which adds to its prominence. Sunak has an out of bounds Venus. Its interesting since his wife was recently involved in controversy as a millionaire with non-dom status not paying UK taxes. The controversy put a dent in Sunak's popularity following his launching the furlough scheme during the pandemic since it reinforced his personal financial disconnection from most of the public.
British politician who served as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2020 to 2022, having previously served as Chief Secretary to the Treasury from 2019 to 2020. A member of the Conservative Party, he has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Richmond (Yorks) since 2015.

From Wikipedia:

Born in Southampton to Indian parents who migrated from East Africa, Sunak was educated at Winchester College. He subsequently read Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) at Lincoln College, Oxford, and later gained an MBA from Stanford University as a Fulbright Scholar. While studying at Stanford, he met his future wife Akshata Murty, the daughter of N. R. Narayana Murthy, the Indian billionaire businessman who founded Infosys. Sunak and Murthy are the 222nd richest people in Britain, with a combined fortune of £730m as of 2022. After graduating, he worked for Goldman Sachs and later as a partner at the hedge fund firms The Children's Investment Fund Management and Theleme Partners.

Elected for Richmond (Yorks) at the 2015 general election, he served in Theresa May's second government as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government. After May resigned, Sunak was a supporter of Boris Johnson's campaign to become Conservative leader. After Johnson was elected and appointed Prime Minister, he appointed Sunak as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Sunak replaced Sajid Javid as Chancellor of the Exchequer after his resignation in February 2020.

As Chancellor, Sunak was prominent in the government's financial response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact, including the furlough and Eat Out to Help Out schemes. In April 2022, he became the first Chancellor in British history to have been sanctioned for breaking the law while in office after being issued a fixed penalty notice for breaching COVID-19 regulations during lockdowns. He resigned as Chancellor on 5 July 2022, citing the economic policy differences between himself and Johnson in his resignation letter. On 8 July 2022, he announced his candidacy to replace Johnson in the Conservative party leadership election.[3]



Penny Mordaunt

Mordaunt chart has a heavy stellium in Pisces containing her Sun, Moon, Mercury and Venus. Mercury is stationary in her chart which may explain her background in media and public relations. She also has a Venus square to Neptune and possibly her Moon too. This might explain her apparent popularity despite her being a relatively unknown figure. It allows people to project their own perceptions on to her. Her Sun in Pisces is in a partile square to Saturn. Jupiter is trine Pluto. Mordaunt has an exalted Mars in Capricorn possibly reflecting her Paratrooper father and her own link to the Royal Navy. While all that Pisces might suggest a rather unfocused person the drive and determination of Mars in Capricorn is very marked being on her North Node and sextile her Sun.

There are many interesting Piscean connections in Mordaunt's life. Mordaunt's name was actually chosen by her father after the Arethusa-class cruiser HMS Penelope. Mordaunt has also remained a Royal Navy reservist. Mordaunt's Mother was a special needs teacher but she died of breast cancer when Mordaunt was only 15. Following her twin brother in leaving school, she became her younger brother Edward's primary caregiver. The following year her father was also diagnosed with cancer, from which he recovered. Mordaunt ran the League of Friends visiting team at the Queen Alexandra Hospital in Portsmouth for eight years. She is a patron of the Victoria Cross Trust, and Enable Ability, a disability charity based in Portsmouth. Mordaunt only non-political TV appearance also had a Pisces link as she appeared in Splash! a British television series that followed celebrities learning the art of diving.

From Wikiipedia:

Penny Mordaunt is a British politician who has been serving as Minister of State for Trade Policy since 2021. A member of the Conservative Party, she has been the Member of Parliament (MP) representing Portsmouth North since 2010. From 2017 to 2019, she served in Theresa May's Cabinet as Secretary of State for International Development, and as Secretary of State for Defence from May to July 2019.

Mordaunt read philosophy at the University of Reading, before working in the public relations industry. She held roles within the Conservative Party under party leaders John Major and William Hague, and also worked for George W. Bush's presidential campaigns in 2000 and 2004. Mordaunt was elected to the House of Commons in May 2010. Under the coalition government of David Cameron, she served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Decentralisation from 2014 to 2015. After the 2015 general election, Cameron promoted her to Minister of State for the Armed Forces, the first woman to hold the post. Mordaunt supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum on EU membership. Following Theresa May's appointment as Prime Minister, Mordaunt was appointed Minister of State for Disabled People, Work and Health. In 2017, following the resignation of Priti Patel, she was appointed Secretary of State for International Development. She also served as Minister for Women and Equalities from 2018 to 2019.

In May 2019, Mordaunt was appointed Secretary of State for Defence, replacing Gavin Williamson, becoming the first woman to hold the post. She served as Defence Secretary for 85 days before being removed from the position by new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In the February 2020 reshuffle, she re-entered government as Paymaster General. In the 2021 reshuffle, she was appointed Minister of State for Trade Policy.

In July 2022, Mordaunt is running in the leadership race to become the leader of the Conservative Party and the next prime minister.



Liz Truss

Truss is the only candidate with a fire Moon (Leo) Sun. The other candidates being earth (Sunak and Badenoch) or water (Mordaunt or Trugendhat). She has a Mercury-Saturn conjunction reflecting her stance on the right of the Conservative party as a strong supporter of free trade. Although, a supporter of remain the 2016 referendum Truss has subsequently changed her stance. Like Mordaunt Truss has a Venus square to Neptune. Her Moon may also be in a square to Mars. Again like Mordaunt , Truss has a Moon in Pisces. But in Truss's case it disposited by a forceful Jupiter in Aries rather than the more cerebral Jupiter in Aquarius in Mordaunt's chart.

From Wikipedia:

Mary Elizabeth Truss (born 26 July 1975) is a British politician who has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for South West Norfolk since 2010. She has served as Foreign Secretary since 2021 and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2019. A member of the Conservative Party, she has served in various cabinet positions under Prime Ministers David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson.

Truss attended Merton College, Oxford, where she was President of Oxford University Liberal Democrats. She graduated in 1996, and subsequently joined the Conservative Party. She worked at Shell and Cable & Wireless, before becoming deputy director at the think tank Reform. Truss became a member of parliament at the 2010 general election. As a backbencher, she called for reform in several policy areas including childcare, maths education, and the economy. She founded the Free Enterprise Group of Conservative MPs, and authored or co-authored a number of papers and books, including After the Coalition (2011) and Britannia Unchained (2012).

Truss served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Childcare and Education from 2012 to 2014, before being appointed to the Cabinet by Prime Minister David Cameron as Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the 2014 cabinet reshuffle. Though she was a prominent supporter of the unsuccessful Britain Stronger in Europe campaign for the UK to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, she came to support Brexit after the result.

After Cameron resigned in July 2016, Truss was appointed Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor by Theresa May, becoming the first female Lord Chancellor in the thousand-year history of the office (if not counting Eleanor of Provence in 1253). Following the 2017 general election, Truss was appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury. After May resigned in 2019, Truss supported Boris Johnson's successful bid to become Conservative leader. After Johnson was appointed Prime Minister, he appointed Truss as Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade, before appointing her as Foreign Secretary in 2021, replacing Dominic Raab. She is the first female Conservative Foreign Secretary and the second female Foreign Secretary, after Margaret Beckett. Truss was appointed as the UK government's chief negotiator with the European Union and as the UK chair of the EU–UK Partnership Council on 19 December 2021, succeeding Lord Frost. On 10 July 2022, Truss announced her intention to run in the Conservative Party leadership election



Kemi Badenoch

Badenich, a Sun Capricorn, has a heavily earth chart with no less than 6 of the 7 traditional planets in the earth elemement. That practicality and grounded emphasis is balanced by a full Moon Moon in Cancer giving a more sensitive empathic outlook. Is interesting that a few people have mentioned Badenoch's high intelligence. She has a Mercury at the powerful cardinal degree of 00 Capricorn and her Mercury is out of bounds.

Badenoch is the youngest of the leadership candidates and has only been an MP since 2017. In her leadership campaign Badenoch has challenged the liberal ''woke agenda'' and has opposed the position trans identity can simply be self identified at the expense of any distinction with biological women.

From Wikipedia:

Badeoch has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for Saffron Walden since 2017. She previously served as Minister of State for Local Government, Faith and Communities and Minister of State for Equalities from 2021 to 2022. Badenoch has been described as a rising star in the Conservative Party.

Born in Wimbledon, London, to Nigerian parents, Badenoch spent parts of her childhood in Lagos and the United States before returning to the United Kingdom at 16. After graduating from the University of Sussex, she worked as a software engineer at Logica before going on to study law at Birkbeck, University of London. Badenoch later pursued a career in banking, working for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group and Coutts.
Born in Wimbledon, London, to Nigerian parents, Badenoch spent parts of her childhood in Lagos and the United States before returning to the United Kingdom at 16. After graduating from the University of Sussex, she worked as a software engineer at Logica before going on to study law at Birkbeck, University of London. Badenoch later pursued a career in banking, working for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group and Coutts.


Tom Tugendhat

Tugendhat is a Sun Cancer with Moon in Taurus. Not surprising considering his military background Mars is strongly integrated in Tugendhat's chart. He has a strong Mars in Aries which is square his Sun and nodal axis and trine his Mercury. A Sun's falling on the Nodes is often an indication of prominence but in Tugendhat's case falling on the South Node/Ketu I would more readily associate this with a politician outside the mainstream rather than one fated for highest office. So far this has been reflected in his career.

Indeed, Tugendhat has emphasized the clear blue water between himself and the other ''legacy candidates'' associated with the Johnson era. Tugendhat hasn't served as a government Minister and to some extent this has played to be being an advantage for him. In the first televised debate held between all the candidates on Friday July 15th on Channel Four Tungendhat came out well ahead of all the other candidates in post screening public polling.

From Wikipedia:
Thomas Georg John Tugendhat MBE VR (born 27 June 1973) is a British politician. A member of the Conservative Party, he has served as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee since 2017. Tugendhat has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Tonbridge and Malling since 2015.[3] Before entering politics, he worked as a journalist and as a public relations consultant in the Middle East. He also had a part-time role as an officer in the British Army reserves, the Territorial Army; he served in the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War.
On 7 July 2022, Tugendhat declared his intention to be a candidate in the upcoming Conservative Party leadership election, following Prime Minister Boris Johnson's resignation
Tugendhat was born in Westminster, London, the son of Sir Michael Tugendhat, a High Court judge, and his French wife, Blandine de Loisne. He is a nephew of Lord Tugendhat, a businessman, former Vice President of the European Commission[6] and Conservative Party politician. He was educated at St Paul's School, London, an all-boys independent school. He studied theology at the University of Bristol, before doing a Master's degree course in Islamic studies at Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge, and learning Arabic in Yemen.[
On 6 July 2003, Tugendhat was commissioned into the Educational and Training Services Branch of the Adjutant General's Corps, Territorial Army, British Army, as a second lieutenant (on probation).[8] His Territorial Army commission was confirmed on 16 July 2003.[9] He transferred to the Intelligence Corps on 29 July 2003.
Tugendhat was promoted to lieutenant on 16 July 2005, captain on 1 April 2007, and to major on 1 January 2010. He was a Territorial Army lieutenant colonel by July 2013.

Tugendhat served during the Iraq War and the War in Afghanistan. He also served in Afghanistan, in a civilian capacity, for the Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO), and helped set up the National Security Council of Afghanistan and the government in Helmand Province.[15] He later served as one of the military assistants to the Chief of the Defence Staff.
Tugendhat holds dual British and French citizenship. His wife Annisia is a French judge and senior civil servant. Her father is Pierre Morel, a French diplomat, and currently (2022) mediator in Ukraine for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Tugendhat is a Roman Catholic. His paternal grandfather was an Austrian Jewish emigrant, from Vienna, who converted to Roman Catholicism.

Opening of Leadership Contest Vote chart

Announcement of Next Conservative Party Leader chart

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:13 pm

Lets now proceed to see how each candidates chart compares to the opening vote of the contest. I have placed the contest chart in the inner wheel and natal charts of the remaining candidates in the outer wheel. Remember, the angles and exact Moon positions of the remaining candidates are not timed when comparing the charts.

Rishi Sunak

Sunak's Sun and Mercury is fairly close to the contest chart NN. The contest chart Mars and Jupiter are trine Sunak's Mars. Sunak's Saturn is trine the North Node of the contest chart. Sunak's SN is conjunct the contest chart Saturn.


Penny Mordaunt

The contest chart Neptune is in a separating conjunction to Mordaunt's Mercury. Contest chart Moon sextile Mordaunt's Sun. Contest chart Mars in a separating square to Mordaunt's Jupiter. The contest chart nodes are sextile Mordaunt's nodal axis. The context SN is trine Mordaunt Sun/The NN sextile her Sun.

Liz Truss

The contest chart Uranus and NN is conjunct Truss's Mars. Contest Mars is sextile her Mercury and Sun. The contest Sun is separating from Truss Saturn. Contest Jupiter opposing her Pluto. Contrest Jupiter ytine her Neptune Rx. Contest Pluto trine Ytuss's SN. Contest POF square Truss's Mercury.


Kemi Badenoch

The Contest chart Sun is squaring Badenoch's Pluto. The Transiting nodes in the contest chart are squaring Badenoch's Mars. Although we dont know the specific degree of Badenoch's Moon it is obviously opposing the contest Moon by sign. However, Badenoch Moon in Cancer could be conjunct the contest chart Mercury or Sun.


Tom Tugendhat

The contest chart Venus is conjunct Tugendhat's Saturn. The contest chart Jupiter is square Tugendhat's nodal axis. We dont actually know the degree of Tugendhat's Moon in Taurus but its possible it conjuncts the Uranus/NN in the contest chart.

Tugendhat is as a political outsider but his candidacy has certainly considerably raised his profile with the party and public.

I think its fairly clear cut from the transits in the contest chart that Rishi Sunak has the best integrated chart with the contest opening chart. But that was already self evident from the votes of MPS so far taken. The more interesting question is who will come second to compete against Sunak in the vote of members?

I am also not convinced that the opening of voting by MPS should be be used as the chart for the wider vote to conservative party members. Voting by the membership is due to begin on July 21st and the final result will be announced on September 5th. I will certainly be examining the latter transits as the equivalent to a close of poll. As mentioned earlier I will also compare each remaining candidates chart to the Conservative party chart. Of course we can also examine other things like secondary progressions, solar arcs and any transit connections on the solar return day

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• Thu Jul 14, 2022 11:38 pm

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• Fri Jul 15, 2022 8:42 am

I now wish to examine the Conservative party leadership candidates charts in comparison to the announcement of the winner chart on September 5th.

Rishi Sunak

Looking at the leadership announcement chart in comparison to Sunak’s chart the most striking transit is that Tr Venus (Sunak’s Sun and Mercury ruler) is exactly conjunct his Jupiter at the time of the announcement. This seems a very good indicator of success. Neptune Rx is opposing Sunak’s Saturn while Pluto Rx is trining Sunak Sun and Mercury. The Moon in Capricorn and Sun in Virgo are harmonious with Sunak’s Sun forming a whole sign trine.

Penny Mordaunt

Looking at Penny Mordaunt’s chart the announcement chart Sun is square her Saturn. The annoucement Sun is opposing her Sun. The announcement Venus is opposing her natal Venus. Mars is squaring Mordaunt’s Sun and possibly her Moon too. Tr Jupiter is trine Mordaunt’s Neptune. The only positive transit is fairly weak, a sextile from the Moon in Capricorn sextile Mordaunt’s Sun and possibly Moon. These transits don’t look like crowning of a new leader to me.


Liz Truss

Tr Mars opposing Truss’s Neptune. Tr Mercury conjunct Pluto. We don’t know the exact degree of Truss’s Moon however it can range from around 3-15 Pisces. Its either opposed by the Virgo Venus or Sun in the announcement chart. Transiting South Node and Uranus Rx conjunct Truss’s Mars. Transiting Pluto opposing Truss’s Saturn. Neptune Rx trine Saturn. The main positive here is that Tr Jupiter Rx is trine Truss’s Sun.


Kemi Badenoch

The transits to Kemi Badenoch’s chart at the time of the leadership announcement include Tr Sun conjunct her Mars. The Moon in Capricorn is conjunct Badenoch’s Sun but quite possibly opposing her Cancer Moon too. Tr Neptune Rx square her natal Neptune. Tr Mars is square Badenoch’s Jupiter and Mars. TR Venus on Badenoch’s North Node. Tr Venus trine Badenoch Mercury. Tr Jupiter Rx square natal Mercury. The TR North Node trine Badenoch’s Sun.

Tom Tugendhat

The Moon in Capricorn in the announcement chart is opposing Tugendhat’s Sun in Cancer. Mercury is square Tugendhat’s nodal axis. Tr Jupiter Rx is conjunct Tugendhat’s Mars. Transiting Pluto is opposing Tugendhat’s Venus. Tr Jupiter trine Neptune.

Summary

As in the opening vote transits Sunak seems to look the likeliest winner overall. If Penny Mordaunt does make the final two her transits look unpromising to win the leadership on September 5th. Liz Truss's transits aren't all that impressive either. The Jupiter trine to Sun may indicate the prospect of her invitation to join the new Prime Minister's cabinet. I dont rule out the possibility that Kemi Badenoch could pull a real surprise and make the final two. However, without specific timed data its difficult to be to be emphatic. Her chart is very active on the announcement date. But again she may find herself with a more senior position in a future administration. Whoever, wins will become Prime Minister literally the next day. Tom Tugendhat looks in astrological terms looks like dead man man walking and I expect him to be eliminated soon.

Mark

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• Mon Jul 18, 2022 6:46 pm

The third ballot of MPs has taken place today. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak has topped the third MPs' vote for the next Tory leader and prime minister, with backbencher Tom Tugendhat eliminated.

Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt took second place, while Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was third and ex-Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch was fourth.

The four remaining candidates will go to another round of voting on Tuesday.

The field will be cut to two on Wednesday, with Conservative Party members then having the final say.

The placings were the same as in the second round of voting last Thursday, but Mr Sunak picked up 14 more votes, Ms Badenoch nine and Ms Truss seven.

Ms Mordaunt's support dropped by one vote, as did Mr Tugendhat's.

As a centrist its likely most of Tugenndhat's support will transfer to Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt.

Its seems Badenoch's support may have peaked. I cant see her overtaking Liz Truss at this point. Assuming Badenoch is eliminated on Tuesday the question remains will enough of Badenoch's support transfer to Liz Truss to allow her to overtake Mordaunt as second on the ballot with Sunak? Since both Badenoch and Truss have support on the right of the party that scenario looks quite conceivable.

Mark

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• Mon Jul 18, 2022 8:10 pm

The 4th ballot of Conservative MPs took place today.

Former chancellor Rishi Sunak again topped the latest MPs' ballot with 118 votes, suggesting he is likely to secure a spot in the final two places.

Liz Truss has narrowed the gap with Tory leadership rival Penny Mordaunt, as they battle to secure a place in the run-off vote among members.

Ms Mordaunt came second with 92, only six votes ahead of Ms Truss with 86.

Kemi Badenoch, who came last with 59 votes, has been knocked out of the contest.

Little known beyond Tory circles at the start of the race, former equalities minister Ms Badenoch has been the breakthrough candidate of the contest.

She won support and gained attention with her straight-talking approach and emphasis on cultural issues that have divided the party in recent years.

Her departure from the contest will trigger a scramble among remaining candidates to secure the support of the 59 MPs backing her on Tuesday

The three remaining candidates face a further vote by MPs on Wednesday to decide who will make the final two.

Voting will then be thrown open to 160,000 Tory party members to pick the winner, who will replace Boris Johnson as prime minister on 5 September.

Foreign secretary Liz Truss closed the gap on Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt in Tuesday's vote, gaining 15 more MP votes to Mordaunt's gain of 10.

The pair will now go all out to grab the votes of those MPs who backed Ms Badenoch, as they bid to secure a place in the run-off.

I personally, think Liz Truss will likely pull ahead of Penny Mordaunt in the final vote on Wednesday since Badenoch's supporters are largely on the right of the party.

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• Tue Jul 19, 2022 6:32 pm