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UK General Election-Prediction by Mark Cullen

 
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Mark
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Joined: 30 Sep 2005
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Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:44 pm    Post subject: UK General Election-Prediction by Mark Cullen Reply with quote

Before the close of polls tonight I want to finally post up my analysis of the UK General Election on December 12th 2019! Better late than never. A few weeks ago I previously posted up some analysis of the opening of poll chart on Rod Chang’s Mundane Discussion group. I suggested that chart suggested to me an outright Conservative victory. But I have not had the time to follow up my analysis since then. Once the results are in I will add in the charts I have been discussing here.

It still seems worth making a detailed prediction here as the polls still indicate that while the Conservative party will definitely be the largest party it may or may not be able to form a majority. Without a majority the Conservative party look very short of allies. The only other right of centre party in the current Parliament are the Democratic Unionist Party. But the Brexit deal agreed by Johnson’s government with the EU is implacably opposed by the DUP. And of course the other parties in Westminster all oppose Brexit. Of course it is possible the Brexit party may also get a few seats in the next parliament. But historically, the first past the post electrical system is very harsh on smaller parties who rarely get anything approaching a fair share of seats reflecting their actual votes.

I have tried not to get heavily into reading the detailed astrological predictions of other astrologers. I think that can simply cloud ones own independent judgement and gut instincts. However, I have noted that astrologers like Smiljana Gavarancic, Rod Chang, and Marjorie Orr see a hung Parliament as likely. Other astrologers such as Barry Goddard, have suggested a landslide victory for the Conservatives.

I examine the following kinds of charts:
1 Jupiter-Saturn cycle.
2 Ingress charts (2019)
2 The opening of poll chart
4 Natal charts of Key players: Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, Jo Swinson. & Nicola Sturgeon

The Saturn-Jupiter cycle
In traditional astrology the main chronometers of world events are Jupiter and Saturn. While I do use outer planets too I still see the crucial players at this election being the positions of Jupiter and Saturn. We are nearing the end of the current Jupiter-Saturn Cycle which began in 2000 with a conjunction in the earth sign of Taurus. In December 2020 we will have the next conjunction in Aquarius. The last square in Jupiter-Saturn cycle was in 2016 and coincided with the UK Brexit vote. But this month Jupiter has ingressed Capricorn. This places both Jupiter and Saturn in this sign. What does this imply in general terms? Firstly, Saturn is in its sign of domicile rulership while Jupiter is in its sign of fall. Secondly, Saturn disposits Jupiter. This seems a clear indicator that at this time the influence of Saturn is much stronger than that of Jupiter. In mundane terms Jupiter tends to represent more progressive left of centre forces while Saturn symbolises more conservative , right wing influences. In economic terms Jupiter, in Capricorn could be seen as being a presage of an economic downturn as it was in 2008. In terms of global politics it seems more likely that conservative political movements will do better in the current astrological climate. So while we cannot precisely delineate the UK General election with just the placement of Jupiter and Saturn we start from an astrological landscape that seems more favourable to movements and ideas that are more reactionary and backward looking. In contrast this does not seem a very promising time astrologically for parties offering a radical, progressive transformation of society

Ingress charts
Ingress charts plot the position of the Sun as it enters each of the cardinal signs. Historically, primary focus was given to the Aries ingress. If the Aries ingress chart has a fixed sign rising it is used as the operative chart for the year. However, if the chart has a mutable sign rising you also examine the Libra ingress. Finally, if a cardinal sign rises in the Aries ingress chart you examine all four ingress charts. Before national charts were proposed by Charles Carter after WWI ingress charts were one of the primary techniques of mundane astrology. For more traditionally inspired mundane astrologers like myself they still are a major part of the astrological toolbox. I have taken a look at all the ingress charts prior to every UK General Election from 1918 when the franchise was extended to working class men and women for the first time. I note that both the ASC and MC in the Aries ingress chart for 2019 are both located in fixed signs. In a general sense this lends some support to the notion that will no major change this year and the existing government will stay in power.

We can see indications of the rather toxic political year we have had with Mars in detriment in Taurus squaring the 7th house ruler. The Moon is the 9th house ruler in the chart and applies to oppose the Sun (Lord 10) across the sign boundary. This could be seen as symbolising both the political and legal opposition to the government over the last year. Both the WSH 10th and MC ruler can be taken to indicate the incumbent Conservative government while the 4th house represents the political opposition. We see The Sun representing the government is in the WSH 6th but is succedent by sign division. In contrast the political opposition is symbolised by Saturn. Saturn is in the WSH 3rd and is cadent by sign division. Saturn is also applying to conjunct Pluto in the chart. The political opposition ultimately look weaker here.

As I suggested the fixed angles in the chart would seem to lend some support to the view that the incumbent party will stay in power. However, I have gone over every ingress prior to General elections since 1918. I found one example of an incumbent party losing with fixed angles in the Aries ingress which was 1964 when Labour defeated the Conservatives after 13 years in power. However, in 1964 the closest ingress (Libra) was very accurate in reflecting the weakness of the sitting Tory government. Based on practical experience of studying such charts I therefore think one should always still check out the closest ingress prior to an election for further verification irrespective of some traditional authorities view on this.
In this instance the Libra ingress for 2019 only seems to add weight to the earlier Aries ingress in showing the incumbent Conservative government emerging with a clear electoral victory. The Moon is the natural significator of the people and here it is aligned with being associated with the 10th house symbolising the current government. The ruler of the 10th house by both WSH and quadrant division is the Moon in Cancer. It is applying within 2 degrees to the MC. In contrast the political opposition represented by the 4th house ruler Saturn is strong by being on the angles too but the placement exactly on the IC could symbolise pollical obscurity of oblivion. It has to be said the Moon is applying to an opposition of Pluto indicating the troubled and possibly traumatic future ahead for the country.

.

Opening of Poll Chart
The opening of poll chart is timed for the start of the opening of polls in the UK which is 7am in the United Kingdom on 12th of December. There are several methods that can be utilised to delineate this chart. Firstly, like an ingress chart we can delineate the MC representing the government and the IC for the political opposition. Secondly, and probably the most popular astrological method is to treat the opening of poll as a contest chart with the ASC representing the incumbent government and the DESC the political opposition. This goes back to traditional ideas that the ASC =continuity while the 7th=change.

However, before the UK General Election in 2010 I was very impressed by a delineation of that opening of poll chart by the traditional astrologer Stephen Birchfield who proposed a different method. Birchfield’s method was to look at the three triplicity rulers of the MC. This was in part to reflect the political reality that despite the vagaries of the first past the post system the UK there is no longer a simplistic two party system. Birchfield instead suggested that as all the parties were effectively competing for the political prize of power none of them should be exclusively assigned the MC. Instead he delineated the three triplicity rulers of the MC to a broad political force.
Looking at the 2019 opening of poll chart we find Libra on the MC (very close to the ASC of the UK 1801 chart and the MC of the UK 1927 chart). The air signs have three triplicity rulers-Saturn (day ruler), Mercury (night ruler), Jupiter (participating ruler). The 2010 election also had an air sign on the MC (Aquarius) so following Steven Birchfield’s example I have taken the three triplicity rulers to symbolise respectively the Conservative party (Saturn), The Labour party ( Mercury) and the other r parties such as the Liberal Democrats, SNP and Brexit party (Jupiter).

The Conservatives seem in a relatively good position in this chart. Saturn is in its own domicile and is still conjunct the MC ruler (Venus) although it is separating by just under a degree. Saturn is in a succedent house so moderate in power. Saturn is out of sect which is somewhat weakening. Mars in its sign of Scorpio is forming a sextile from the 12th house and it is both Lord 12 and Lord 5 in the chart.

The Labour party symbolised my Mercury are in contrast quite weak in the chart as Mercury is both in its sign of detriment and by sign division is cadent in the 12th house. Mercury is in the whole sign first house. How do we reconcile that? Using the approach suggested by the Perso-Arabic astrologer Sahl the whole sign house gives the topic but the actualisation of the WSH potential depends on how planets lie in relation to the house cusps. Here Mercury is literally ‘falling away’ from the ASC by more than 3 degrees and by primary motion is falling even further into a deeper cadent position. Mitigating factors are that Mercury is in sect in the opening of poll chart. Also Mercury is making an applying sextile to the MC. However, most astrologers would agree sextiles are fairly weak in influence. I give more weight to the fact Mercury in in the 1st WSH but cadent in relation to the angles. To me this indicates ‘missing the mark’ in some respect.

Finally, we come to Jupiter and the other political parties. Jupiter is is in a strong position by accidental dignity falling an angular house by sign division. However, unlike Saturn, Jupiter here is in its sign of fall in Capricorn. Jupiter is also disposited by Saturn. Its noteable that Jupiter is under the beams of the Sun which indicates an increasingly weakened position for these political forces. In the case of the SNP a strong electoral result may not be enough if Labour do not perform strongly enough. Moreover, that party is facing a crisis of its own from March 2020 with the trial of its former leader Alex Salmond. The Liberal Democrats also do not look like being strong enough to be the ‘king makers’ in the next parliament. The fact Jupiter is going under the beams possibly indicates a good showing for these parties will ultimately be eclipsed by the final electoral arithmetic.


Nativities of the Key players

Boris Johnson

Looking at Boris Johnsons chart several astrological factors seem to be working in his favour at this time. Mars which is the ruler of Johnson’s Moon (his MC ruler) has moved into a much stronger placement in Scorpio. Johnson was going through a quite torrid time politically with Mars in his 1st house of Libra where as a malefic in its sign of detriment it was very weakening for him. Jupiter’s ingress into Capricorn is also helpful as in Sagittarius it was opposing his Gemini stellium.

On election day Jupiter is on his nodal axis. Admitedly, Jupiter is on the south node and in its sign of fall. However, it is forming a sextile to to his 5th house ruler Saturn and in a plactick trine to his natal Jupiter. Many people have noted the Moon is in Gemini and this may favour Johnson. However, the connection is stronger than that as the full Moon chart for the day of the election puts the Moon exactly at 19 Gemini which is the degree of Johnson’s natal mercury. That seems a rather strong symbolic connection indicating public popularity.

The Solar return chart showed the exceptionally difficult year Johnson had ahead and the powerful political opposition he would face with his MC ruler Mars in fall in Cancer and opposing Pluto. However, despite I note the MC in his SR chart (Located for New York) fell exactly on his Moon which is his MC ruler. We all know Johnson became Prime Minister shortly afterwards. However, I think a key point here is that his MC falls in a fixed sign for this SR. This would seem to indicate his remaining in power as Prime Minster. His Moon is weak at the end of Capricorn and VOC but it can expect improvement as it ingresses Aquarius.

Using secondary progressions the SP Moon is closely trining Johnson’s MC at this time. The SP Quotidian or true SP MC is exactly trine Johnson’s Moon (his MC ruler) Finally, the Quotidian ASC is in Gemini close to Johnson’s Sun on the day of the election. Tertiary progressed Jupiter is on the degree of Johnson’s MC on the day of the election.

One technique I have adopted fairly recently is working with the SP Moon by declination. Rather than showing precise hits like transits it shows a broad cycle of personal peaks and troughs as it moves from its higher declination north of the celestial equator to the south. Generally, the Moon rising in northern declination shows increasing prominence/success while its journey south of the celestial equator can indicate a lower personal ebb. In Johnson’s case the Moon is moving south by declination but is forming a parallel by declination at the time of the election to his natal Saturn which is his 4th and 5th house ruler. In his natal chart Saturn forms a trine to Johnson’s Moon so I see this contact as overall positive for Johnsonn ( See note on Corbyn to compare)

If there is a fly in the ointment to this analysis it may be what I see in the Solar arcs in Johnson’s chart. Solar arc Uranus is very close to Johnson’s Moon. At the same time his solar arc MC is almost conjunct his Uranus. Both solar arcs perfect in about 6 months. Moreover, I note that Johnson has a nodal return in April 2020. What might this imply? Could this indicate his imminent removal from office? If I was relying exclusively on solar arcs I might conclude that but I don’t. Of course the reality of a Brexit would fit this symbolism too and would be closer to perfection on January 31st. But if my analysis is ultimately flawed and Johnson fails to win with a working majority I think these solar arcs will be something to revisit.

Jeremy Corbyn

Unfortunately we do not have an accurate birth time for Jeremy Corbyn although we do have a rectification offered by Julian Venables. Transit wise it could be argued that Corbyn like Johnson benefits from a Moon in Gemini on election day. However, the connection is less strong in Corbyns case as the prior full Moon chart does not pick up any of his key planet in Gemini by degree . The Moon at close of poll is on Corbyn’s Uranus. So can he expect a nice or unpleasant shock? Well, I note the position of Mercury on election day is exactly opposed to Corbyn’s Sun. If Venables rectification is correct Corbyn is Scorpio rising and Mars is Corbyn’s ASC ruler. However, on election day Mars is in an applying opposition to Corbyn’s natal Mars and Moon. Tr Uranus Rx applies to a square of Corbyn’s natal Jupiter in Aquarius.

Using the SP Moon by declination again Corbyn’s chart is quite striking as the Moon as at its lowest point by southern declination it can reach in an 18 year cycle. It also makes no aspects by parallel. To me this looks very like a career ending moment. If Corbyn becomes Prime Minister as some astrologers think I will need to have a chat to Karen Christino as that result would refute a method she has been advocating for some years.

Using an untimed chart there are no major solar arcs. However, Julian Venables rectified time is correct the solar arcs look very strong for Corbyn with SA MC on his rectified ASC and SA ASC on his Jupiter. However, I find it rather hard to accept this chart in light of my previous analysis.

Jo Swinson

I am fortunate to have timed data for the Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson. Swinson started off her campaign setting out her stall as an alternative Prime Minister. However, she has had several setbacks in this campaign. The Liberal Democrat policy to completely revoke article 50 and cancel Brexit has not proved as popular with the electorate as hoped. Moreover, Swinson’s track record in the coalition government supporting benefit cuts to the poor and disabled has come to light in the TV debates and lost Swinson support of more left leaning voters. A Leo rising with a Sun in Aquarius Swinson is yet another heavily air based politician with Moon at 26 Gemini. Again one could argue the Gemini focus may help Swinson. However, I see quite a lot of difficult transits for Swinson. Swinson is going through a Pluto-Pluto square right now. Mars (her MC ruler) applies to a square of her Sun on election day. This could be seen as invigorating on its own but not when you also have Venus and Saturn applying to square your natal Pluto. On election day the transiting Sun is close to Swinson’s Neptune. Overall, it looks like a disappointing and frustrating period for Swinson although she is young enough to recover from this setback.

Nicola Sturgeon

And what of Nicola Surgeon, the first Minister of Scotland known to some as ‘The Queen of the North’’. If any politician is playing a long game it is surely Sturgeon. Since the SNP are not trying to be in government but rather stop Brexit and get another independence vote in Scotland their measure of success is a bit different from Labour and the Lib Dems. They are seeking to increase their share of the vote and seats in Westminster so they can negotiate from a position of strength. If Labour is elected they will seek a coalition or failing that a confidence and supply agreement like the DUP provided for the Conservatives. If Johnson is elected and a referendum is rejected they will seek to build momentum for a decisive electoral win at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. With a strong electoral mandate at that election it will be more difficult to resist calls for another referendum. Interestingly, Uranus is going to square Sturgeon and the Scottish Parliament’s Moon in early 2021. However, it should be noted that Pluto is beginning to oppose Sturgeon’s Sun. This may in part be reflecting the trial taking place in March-April 202o of Alex Salmond, the previous First Minister of Scotland who was Sturgeon’s political mentor. Salmond is facing multiple accusations of sexual harassment and one accusation of rape. Whatever, the political dynamics this will be a very difficult process for both Sturgeon and the SNP as a whole. The Saturn-Pluto conjunction next year will occur right on the SNP Moon (1934) and oppose the SNP Pluto.
Still, on election day Sturgeon has Mars transiting her first house of Scorpio course which puts her in a strong fighting mode. However, Mars will be opposing Sturgeon Saturn (Moon ruler) over the next week. No matter how well the SNP perform in Scotland I don’t think they will be able to stop a blue wave in England.

Conclusion

Looking at a variety of astrological indicators it seems to me that the likeliest outcome of this General election is a win for Boris Johnson. Based on his strong natal chart on election day I expect the Conservatives to not just emerge as the largest party but to obtain an overall majority. The obvious implication of that being that Brexit will proceed to the dismay of about half the UK population.

I largely discount the solar eclipse on 26th December as relevant to Britain as it is not visible in Europe. However, we do have a highly significant lunar eclipse on January 10th falling on the UK Moon (1801). Moreover, I note that the Moon in the Aries Ingress in 2020 is at 13 Aquarius. This was the degree of the Moon in the EU referendum in 2016 which delivered the Brexit vote. Coincidence? We shall see….
_________________
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly


Last edited by Mark on Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:33 am; edited 2 times in total
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woke satan



Joined: 03 Oct 2018
Posts: 72

Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem with this post (and every other election post on this site) is that we don't have an American style presidential election system in the UK whereby votes are cast for individuals.

In the UK, we vote for parties, not personalities.

The proof in this theory (if there's any needed) is that if Boris where to die in a car crash tomorrow, the Conservative and Unionist party will still be in power for the next 5 years, whoever the leader is.

Another problem is that astrologers want to make their arguments as complicated as possible - and any one who's made a accurate prediction will know that's not how it works.

Cool


Last edited by woke satan on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:30 am; edited 1 time in total
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woke satan



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Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm critiquing the astrology that's appeared on this site for the general election.

We vote for political parties and not for personalities, right?

What I'm saying is, is that the emphasis of the astrological theories on the website has focused, almost exclusively, on the party leaders and not on the political philosophies of the parties. And that is what wins elections.

It's the party people vote for, not the personalities as is more the case in the US.

That's obvious?

Quote:
So what happens if a US President dies? Is another vote held for another individual? No. the incumbent party make the Vice President leader for the remainder of that Presidential term.


Makes no difference: UK politics is different from the US. You'd have to look at, and get to grips with the US's political system to really understand the astrology of it.


Last edited by woke satan on Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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Mark
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Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2019 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I'm critiquing the astrology that's appeared on this site for the general election.

We vote for political parties and not for personalities, right?

What I'm saying is, is that the emphasis of the astrological theories on the website has focused, almost exclusively, on the party leaders and not on the political philosophies of the parties. And that is what wins elections.

It's the party people vote for, not the personalities as is more the case in the US. That's obvious?



Well no. Firstly, of the four methods I used above only one relied on nativities. The other three approaches looked at the parties. As a matter of fact I also studied the foundational charts for each of the political parties and this informed my prediction. I just didn't have the time to post that up.

Looks like you couldn't be bothered to actually read my prediction and prefer to set forth your pet theories.

As for your point about the UK political system what happens in the USA if the President dies? Do we get another election? No. the VP of the incumbent party takes over.

Plus US politics is not all about the Presidency you have Congress based on the parties too.

I have to ask do you actually practice any astrology or do you just prefer to troll those that do?

Mark
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As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly
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