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Why does it happen at times and not at other times?

 
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Vas



Joined: 06 Jun 2018
Posts: 54

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:04 pm    Post subject: Why does it happen at times and not at other times? Reply with quote

So I've must've researched over 1600 charts on horse racing events, pertaining to the horse race. most likely more.

Some horses win at various times and some don't.


Last edited by Vas on Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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john



Joined: 22 Dec 2006
Posts: 617
Location: Lancashire, England

Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The joy of statistics.

Somewhere else on this forum a comment was made that in football matches the favourites tend to win when there is a certain planetary configuration. Do favourites tend to win matches; if so then how does this observation move the research forward. If other planetary configurations occur then are they also likely to figure in most cases when favourites win.

For horse racing, first what types of racing are you recording and how many times does the favourite win. If it is less than average then at any degree rising wouldn't it be expected that the favourite will not win.

The interesting bit is for all the 30 degrees what percentage of favourites win compared to the overall percentage of favourites winning.
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C'est la vie, say astrologers, goes to show you never can tell.
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Vas



Joined: 06 Jun 2018
Posts: 54

Posted: Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John,

Thank you very much for your comments and insight.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
Posts: 191
Location: Thailand

Posted: Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aim: To identify any correlation between a horse race's ascending degree and the favourite(s)'s propensity to win.

Method: A year (2018) of races was chosen as a sample. A full year to avoid any possible seasonal distortion.

Observations: 9545 races were analysed; counting for each degree rising the propensity of favourites to win.
The propensity being the number of wins divided by the number of wins expected by the SP probability.
Propensity ranged from 84% to 108% with only 8 degrees giving a positive return.

deg no wins expected propensity
deg03 336 141 130 108
deg22 288 115 107 107
deg02 332 135 128 105
deg15 340 129 124 104
deg25 315 121 116 104
deg06 300 118 116 102
deg09 328 128 125 102
deg26 338 129 128 101

Looking at the low propensities:

deg no wins expected propensity
deg21 312 102 122 84
deg20 326 107 124 86
deg14 305 99 114 87
deg27 346 110 126 87
deg29 305 101 115 88
deg24 319 107 121 88
deg11 326 110 125 88
deg07 305 101 113 89
deg00 313 102 115 89

The 20th and 21st degrees rising give some hope of profitably laying favourites (although a propensity of less than 80% would be more appealing) with about one or two bets a day on average.


The number of races per rising degree were reasonably distributed with all degrees covered and ranging from 288 to 350 races.

Conclusion: No significant correlation but the 20th and 21st degrees rising maybe worth investigating for consistent low propensity of favourites to win.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
Posts: 191
Location: Thailand

Posted: Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at 2019 to date: The highest propensity 108% was the 21st degree!
Lowest propensity (67%) is the 20th degree.
The 22nd degree which had the second highest propensity of 2018 at 107% is 3rd lowest on 82% in 2019.

Looks like some volatility from 20-22 degrees?
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john



Joined: 22 Dec 2006
Posts: 617
Location: Lancashire, England

Posted: Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conclusions??

Astrologers using the rising degree to pick favourites all the time, result is financial loss.

Non astrologers picking favourites all the time, result is financial loss.

Opinion -

Astrological research mainly involves astrologers separating themselves from the astrological phenomena they are investigating.

Most practicing astrologers are actively part of the process when undertaking their astrology.

Non astrologers knowing when and when not to back favourites, result potential financial gain.

Astrologers backing favourites knowing when to using the rising degree and when not to, result potential financial gain
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C'est la vie, say astrologers, goes to show you never can tell.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
Posts: 191
Location: Thailand

Posted: Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lol.

It seems that you are emotionally attached to using rising degrees.

You asked for a correlation and now you have zero correlation it is for lack of some "when" significator.

I expected something more rational....
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john



Joined: 22 Dec 2006
Posts: 617
Location: Lancashire, England

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The comments addressed the matters raised by Vas.

If you want to talk about your research, great, more justice will be done this on a separate thread.
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C'est la vie, say astrologers, goes to show you never can tell.
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skyrack



Joined: 02 Aug 2012
Posts: 191
Location: Thailand

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

john wrote:
The joy of statistics.

...

The interesting bit is for all the 30 degrees what percentage of favourites win compared to the overall percentage of favourites winning.


OK. I just thought I would have a look at what you suggested. If you have another angle of attack or whatever I could maybe look into that too.

If you do, fire way on another thread.
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