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Next President of France 2017
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Mjacob



Joined: 17 Nov 2011
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Location: Kent - England

Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:28 pm    Post subject: Next President of France 2017 Reply with quote

Would anyone be interested in seeing whether challenger Marine Le Pen can win against whoever is chosen in January to run?

The first round is in April so the Paris ingress chart would be a start - I have 13th degree of Sagittarius ascending with MC 9 Libra 19'
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Mark
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Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I will have a go once I finish my research on predictions for the US Presidential election. Thank heavens France puts time of birth on publicly accessible birth certificates!

What an enlightened country!

Mark
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Mjacob



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Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mme. Le Pen elle mème est née 5 August 1968 11.20 am Neuilly sur Seine and if it is François Fillon we have 4 March 1954 21.15 à Le Mans but I will check the ingress
I am not so sure that Marine Le Pen's birth chart will help. Compare and contrast Nigel Farage. He never was elected to the UK parliament and his party UKIP has little success in electoral terms but he is dubbed the most successful politician of his generation in that Britain agreed with him and voted Brexit.
Mme Le Pen win or lose the presidency has won the argument. Her far right opinion is vindicated.France has a problem with Islamist terrorism and immigration and no one can pretetend otherwise. See for example the article in the Sunday Times by Douglas Murray 20:11 2016
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Mjacob



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Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 2:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The pundits predict that the FN Candidate will lose as she has only about 35% support and the rest will vote against her whatever but looking at Brexit and the US Presidential election the populist cause tends to beat the odds so is there astrological reasons to see if Marine Le Pen wins?
There are some negative indications for the MC rulers of the ingress chart for Paris 2017 so we could be in for another surprise
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Mark
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Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 7:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mjacob wrote:
Quote:
There are some negative indications for the MC rulers of the ingress chart for Paris 2017 so we could be in for another surprise.


I dont know how useful an ingress would be here. Last time I looked President Hollande was as low as 12% in approval ratings. So with the socialists the MC in the forthcoming ingress charts I would expect things to look extremely grim for the incumbent. It would be more open if Hollande does not seek re-election although his administration has probably damaged the chances of any Socialist candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/05/nearly-90-percent-of-the-french-now-disapprove-of-their-president/

The likely selection of Francois Fillon as the main candidate for the French Republicans will make it much more difficult for Le Pen as he is quite conservative on her core issues so her anti-Islamic/immigrant stance will have less traction against him as he is very tough on such issues already.

Mr Fillon takes a hard line against Islamist terrorism and has published a book titled ''Beating Islamic Totalitarianism''.

He has pledged to reform immigration and renegotiate the Schengen agreement in order to strengthen France’s borders.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/734548/francois-fillon-who-french-election-2017-primary-Les-Republicains.

Natal data for Fillon and Le Pen AA!

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Fillon,_Fran%C3%A7ois

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Le_Pen%2C_Marine

Mark
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james_m



Joined: 05 Dec 2011
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Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i haven't been following the french election process, but i appreciate you both discussing it.. i am curious is fillon going to run against pen? is that the deal?
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Mark
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Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

James wrote:
Quote:
i haven't been following the french election process, but i appreciate you both discussing it.. i am curious is fillon going to run against pen? is that the deal?


Basically there are only three political groupings that have a serious prospect of winning the presidential election next year in France.

Firstly, on the left The Socialist Party. President Hollande has indicated he will not seek reelection next year. As I stated above his opinion poll ratings have been abysmal. Hollande's political legacy has made it much more difficult for any candidate on the left to win next May. But the socialists have yet to select their preferred presidential candidate. The Socialist Party will hold a presidential primary in January 2017.

Secondly, The Republicans which is basically a coalition of centrist and centre-right political opinion. Its a uniquely French fusion of Gaullism, Liberal conservatism, and Christian Democratic ideas. For the first time this year the Republicans held open primaries accessible to the general public to elect their Presidential candidate. The result of the vote was a resounding victory for François Fillon who obtained 66.5% of the vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Republicans_(France)_presidential_primary,_2016

Thirdly, we have The National Front headed by Marine Le Pen. The National Front (French: Front national FN] is a socially conservative, nationalist political party in France. Its major policies include economic protectionism, a zero tolerance approach to law and order issues, and opposition to mass immigration. As an anti-European Union party, the FN has opposed the European Union since its creation. Most political commentators place the FN on the far-right but the party has taken a line on welfare and other issues that make it hard to slot into a straight left-right spectrum as found in Anglo-American politics.

The French Presidential election is a two ballot system. Only the two most popular candidates make it to the second ballot.

Support for the Socialists is at a very low ebb. Moreover the left vote is split with a lot of support going to The Left Front which is a grouping of the far left. So it seems quite likely at this stage that no candidate on the left will get through to the second ballot.

The conventional view is that the second ballot is likely to be a run off between François Fillon and Marine Le Pen. But assuming Le Pen makes it to the second ballot there is considerable doubt she will be able to get wide enough popular support to beat François Fillon.

But this hasn't been a year when conventional political punditry has had much success so who knows?

Mark
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james_m



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Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi mark,

thanks for the great overview here... i have only looked at fillon and le pens charts.. among a number of interesting connections - both share a libra rising, cancer on the midheaven, fillons uranus on le pens midheaven exact, they also have venus-pluto conjunctions back and forth in both charts.. this shows up as a venus-pluto square in the combined chart. i suspect there are some unfriendly undercurrents in whatever relationship they do have between one another - all cordial and friendly on the surface no doubt with the libra rising!

saturn is quite powerful in le pens chart - sationary direct.. it rules her 4/5 houses, while she also has moon in cap.. i wonder about her home life, apart from the important role her father has played in her life? i think of that north node in aries on the descendant as someone who would be challenging to work or deal with, which happens to be the same deal with saturn in aries in the 7th.. it kind of creates an image in my mind of her being difficult to work with!! maybe i am being unfair to saturn here! however south node on the ascendant makes me think of someone who is very selfless and willing to serve the greater good.. i wonder if i have that right?

fillons uranus on le pens midheaven seems unsettling and disruptive to her position and chances.. i am mostly speaking off the top of my head here... i haven't looked at anything more then the 2 charts without a thought of any predictive data or a date into the future..

thanks again for the overview which i am sure others can benefit from as well.
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Vicki



Joined: 14 Aug 2012
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Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the charts of Francois Fillon and Marine le Pen and assuming these two will be contesting the final ballot on 7th May I can immediately see it will be very hard to call - harder than the US Election.

I say this because, as James pointed out, they both have a Libra asc and further than that Fillon has his Part of Fortune at 15 Libra the same degree as Le Pen's ascendant ! Jupiter is also transiting 14 - 16 Libra on the two election dates !
Jupiter rules Fillon's Moon and Le Pen's POF. A head scratcher !

What will they do if it's a draw ?!!

Very Happy
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mwastrology



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Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
I will have a go once I finish my research on predictions for the US Presidential election. Thank heavens France puts time of birth on publicly accessible birth certificates!

What an enlightened country!

Mark


Are they publicly accessible? That's a massive invasion of privacy and extremely poor data security.
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Jens



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Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
I will have a go once I finish my research on predictions for the US Presidential election. Thank heavens France puts time of birth on publicly accessible birth certificates!

What an enlightened country!

Mark


Barbault mentioned the tough work British astrologers have with finding birthtimes Confused
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Mjacob



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Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not so sure about the likely Le Pen versus Fillon contest now as there are calls for him to stand down over financial scandals and his his poll ratings are way down

Macron anyone?

Matthew
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james_m



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Posted: Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matthew,

do you have any chart data for macron? i am still not following this closely.. however i did ask a few friends who live in france about the date for the election rounds and they gave me this data

1st round: slew of candidates, Sunday 23 April. 2nd, between the two top contenders.. 7 May. The second round only takes place if the winner of the first round doesn’t have an absolute majority (ex. 51%.)

and in french - https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_fran%C3%A7aise_de_2017
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Mjacob



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Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks James for that link - i can just about read French. I seem to remember that Emmanuel Macron is on ADB but right now I am looking at Le Pen and Fallon. The received wisdom is that even if Le Pen does well in the first round then the voters will all vote in the second round for anyone but her. Fallon has blown his poll lead right now and no longer seems like the credible contender. With only a cursory check at Macron's natal chart he does not look like a leader.
Not sure what will happen now but it looks like Le Pen versus whoever comes up against her. Am working on the astrology but it seems right now that she is no longer the no-chance option but the credible choice
Matthew
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james_m



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Posted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Macron,_Emmanuel


thanks matthew. above is macrons chart from adb. looking at his chart and solar return for this year, i doubt he gets too far.. maybe i am wrong.. i will have another look.. solar return ascendant is conjunction his saturn.. north node is also right here and conjunction natal saturn too.. someone with a lot of money and means is backing him i suppose? transit saturn is high up in his chart as well and saturn is close to conjunct his sun..

just looking at it more now.. i see transit jupiter conjunction pluto the modern ruler of his midheaven.. maybe he is more in the running then i thought..
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